Total Non-Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Claims Hit New Record.

[girl gone mad]

via http://www.zerohedge.com/article/total-nsa-unemploment-claims-hit-another-record">Zero Hedge:

Total Non-Seasonally adjusted insurance claims (consisting of Initial, Continuing and EUC claims) hit another record of 11,268,100. Make of this data what you will. We are confident the objective, mainstream media will find a way to spin this favorably (it can only go down from here... of course, unless it doesn't).

[tridim]

1. Something is amis with their cite..

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20100002.htm

The numbers don't match. Maybe I would understand this if I were a Wall-Street wonk, but to the layman these seem like fudged numbers.

Can you explain the discrepancy?

[girl gone mad]

2. You have to add the numbers together.

Total unemployment claims = emergency unemployment claims + initial unemployment claims + continuing unemployment claims.

EUC = 5,143,410
CUC = 5,479,110
IUC = 645,571
---------------
TOT = 11,268,091

The only thing unusual about this data is the EUC. The EUC bucket is only created in times of massive, ongoing unemployment.

To be included in the EUC bucket, first you have to claim and qualify for benefits. Then when those run out, you claim extended benefits. Then, if you're still qualify as unemployed, you claim emergency benefits (if available).

The EUC was not created in this recession cycle until mid-2008 (IOW, the EUC total was 0 pre-2008). By the end of 2008 it was at 1.6 million people. At the beginning of Nov 2009 it was at 3.6 million. In the link you just pointed to, it's at 5.1 million (as of Dec. 19th). That's 1.5 milion people added to the EUC bucket in just two weeks.

ETA: yes, there is a bit of fudging going on in respect to the EUC because it's so difficult to qualify for and so easy to fall off of, even while you're still unemployed.

[girl gone mad]

4. You're welcome for the answer, by the way.

I'm usually paid for mathematical assistance. Then again, I'm usually being asked to do something much more complex than simple arithmetic. :)

[Po_d Mainiac]

3. AP is reporting similar numbers If you read far enough

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unemploymentclaims-data-apf-488031698.html?x=0

The number of continuing claims dropped 179,000 to 4.8 million, the department said. But that figure doesn't include an additional 5.4 million people who are receiving unemployment under federal emergency programs, as of the week ending Dec. 19.

A total of 10.5 million people were receiving unemployment benefits that week, a drop of about 90,000 from a record high the previous week. The many people receiving emergency benefits is partly a result of a decision by Congress in November to extend benefits for a fourth time since the recession began. Jobless workers can now receive up to 73 weeks of benefits, paid for by the federal government, on top of the 26 weeks customarily provided by the states.

This is happening because even as layoffs are declining, hiring hasn't picked up. That leaves people out of work for longer and longer periods of time.

Some employers are continuing to lay off workers: Defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corp. said Wednesday that it is cutting 1,200 workers, or less than 1 percent of its work force. Alcoa Inc. said it will cut 145 jobs at a plant in Indiana.

the difference is in the CUC BUT, No doubt this will get cleaned up when the revised numbers are posted:scared: