1.5 million unemployed exhaust benefits between 1/1 and 4/30

[papau]

From late December through the end of April, an estimated 1.5 million unemployed individuals will have exhausted their regular unemployment benefits. About 30,000 of them will have qualified for additional unemployment aid through the federal/state extended benefits program.

The remaining 1.47 million individuals will not qualify for any federal unemployment benefits.

The 1.47 million jobless workers exhausting their regular benefits and going with federal aid from late December through April also is higher than the number of such exhaustees in any other period of comparable length on record.

If these folks are reclassified as not really looking for work after 26 weeks of benefit - the unemployment rate will go down.

Makes sense.

[Frodo]

1. Sure,

Of course, in order to be "reclassified as not really looking for work" they have to actually stop looking for work (and not give as a reason "I just don't think there are any jobs out there").

Again (since it seems to be a common misconception here), the survey which sets the unemployment rate does not get any information from the unemployment insurance. Whether you have exhausted your benefits or not does not impact whether you are counted as unemployed.

Just look at the post that YOU made yesterday http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x8349 (a blatant plug for a post which should have had more interest) and you will see that if all they counted as "unemployed" were the people eligible for benefits the unemployment rate would be 2.4%

Now don't you think the maladministration would be singin THAT number to the heavens?

[papau]

2. Oh I agree - you are spot on re the procedure - but the "I don't think

there are jobs" folks do indeed end up on the not looking for work - and under Bush "appear" to be not counted - in the UE rate over time.

U-3 is indeed likely to be lower with fewer folks getting benefits.

Granted "looking for work" and would work if available U-6 do not change just because benefits end.

The "unemployed" people eligible for benefits unemployment rate of 2.4% has not moved much, nor has the "unemployed" people NOT eligible for benefits unemployment rate moved a great deal.

So where are these folks going? 4 months and 1.5 million is a 1.4 addition to some "rate" number - isn't it?

[Frodo]

3. Of course not!

Don't you know that all of those people are just mooching off of our generosity??? As soon as they get those cuushy handouts cut off they will rush right out and get jobs.

They've only been "unemployed" because they don't want to work!


</sarcasm>


I'm starting my timer to see how long it takes mhr to chew me out. :-)

[papau]

4. My problem is ended because the payroll data does not split out insured

claim unemployed - and my mind has gone blank on Household survey - does it spit out a split between insured and uninsured?

Chalk another up to "Senior Moments" - time for a nap


Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)2.4%
Continued Claims
01/03/2004 3,180,000
01/10/2004 3,186,000
01/17/2004 3,173,000
01/24/2004 3,176,000
01/31/2004 3,149,000
02/07/2004 3,230,000
02/14/2004 3,147,000
02/21/2004 3,120,000
02/28/2004 3,057,000
03/06/2004 3,077,000
03/13/2004 3,027,000
03/20/2004 3,050,000
03/27/2004 2,996,000
04/03/2004 2,967,000

Even the non seasonal adjusted drop from 1/3/04 of 1.0m seems to net to a half million high
N.S.A .
4,150,431
3,851,301
3,798,519
3,773,316
3,850,990
3,776,188
3,729,369
3,738,056
3,674,294
3,551,292
3,513,900
3,385,174
3,310,942
04/03/2004 3,112,845

or if you like we had 0.5 m new insurred claims on 04 that are still around 4/3.

AS IN:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 546,823 in the week ending Jan. 3, an increase of 30,431 from the previous week. There were 620,004 initial claims in the comparable week in 2003.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent during the week ending Dec. 27, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,724,660, an increase of 485,181 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.2 percent and the volume was 4,081,930.

versus

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent during the week ending April 17, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,046,331, a decrease of 102,487 from the preceding week.



Series Id: LNU03327709Not Seasonally AdjustedSeries title: (Unadj) Special Unemployment Rate U-6Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployedType of data: PercentAge: 16 years and overPercent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 12.8 12.2 11.9 10.9 10.6 11.3 11.1 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.7 9.7 10.9
1995 11.1 10.5 10.3 9.8 9.8 10.4 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.3 9.6 9.7 10.1
1996 10.8 10.7 10.3 9.7 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.7
1997 10.4 10.0 9.6 9.0 8.5 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.3 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.9
1998 9.3 8.9 8.9 7.7 7.6 8.4 8.5 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.3 8.0
1999 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.4 7.1 7.9 7.7 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.4
2000 7.8 7.6 7.4 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.8 6.7 7.0
2001 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.1 7.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.3 8.1
2002 10.5 10.1 9.9 9.4 9.2 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.4 9.6 9.6
2003 11.0 10.8 10.4 9.8 9.7 10.6 10.5 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.7 9.6 10.1
2004 10.9 10.3 10.4


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Series Id: LNS13327709Seasonal AdjustedSeries title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workersLabor force status: Aggregated totals unemployedType of data: PercentAge: 16 years and overPercent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 11.8 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0
1995 10.2 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.1 9.9 10.0 10.0
1996 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.5
1997 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.4
1998 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.6
1999 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1
2000 7.0 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9
2001 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.6
2002 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.9
2003 9.9 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.9
2004 9.9 9.6 9.9

[papau]

5. U-6 IN Dec 02 seasonally adj's from 9.6 to 9.9, in 2003 from 10.1 to 9.9

Can we say that the seasonal adjustments have been changed so as to make Bush look better?

The formula for seasonal adjustments between 2002 and 2003 -From a raw data 9.6 we ADD 0.3 in Dec. 2002 to get the S.A. 9.9%

But from a raw data 10.1% we SUBTRACT 0.2 in Dec 2003 to get - again - 9.9%

[On the Road]

6. You're Kidding, Papau!

How can a so-called seasonal adjustment drive numbers up one month and then drive numbers down in the same month the next year?

Is the seasonal adjustment formula public information?

7. Seasonal Adjustments

There does seem to be a tremendous amount of political wiggle room available in "seasonal adjustments."

I noted last year a change in the PPI season adj. for natural gas, which moved winter costs into summer--for the first time, as far as I could tell.

[On the Road]

8. Are There Any Controls to Force it to Even Out Over an Entire Year?

Because if there are not, that really opens up the process to manipulation.