May Payroll Predictions

[tritsofme]

The May report for non-farm payrolls is due out on Friday at 7:30AM CST.

The seasonally adjusted data for the first 4 months of the year is as follows:

January: +159,000
February: +83,000
March: +337,000
April: +288,000

The March and April numbers are still subject to revision.

The street expects a gain of 225,000; however whisper numbers have been as high as 350,000, and as low as 125,000.

My prediction is a little more upbeat than average; I think that in May 275,000 jobs were added to the US economy. I also believe that the national unemployment rate will edge up to 5.7% reflecting more discouraged workers reentering the workforce as the labor market continues to improve.

I also think that revisions to March will be negligible, and that April will be revised upward to around 310,000.


So what are your predictions?

(You can also make me eat my words in a few day if I turn out to be vastly wrong)

[mhr]

1. No Jobs In Dallas, TX - Maybe Your Predictions Should Be Regional?

eom

[tritsofme]

2. My prediction a little high,

but it could be revised to that level next month.

Numbers for 2004 with revisions:

January: +159,000
February: +83,000
March: +353,000 (revised +16,000)
April: +346,000 (revised +58,000)
May: +248,000
=1,189,000 payrolls added in 2004.

April and May are still preliminary, but the March number is final.

UE rate held steady at 5.6%

Bush is still in the hole -1,164,000 for his term in office.