IEA Chief Economist - W/O "Exponential" Iraq Oil Output Increase, "Deep Trouble" By 2015 - Le Monde

[hatrack]

In a stunning interview for the French (reference) daily Le Monde, Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (i.e. the intergovernmental body created after the oil shocks of the 70s to coordinate the West's reaction to energy crises) effectively says that peak oil is just around the corner, and that without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015:

"Si la production n'augmente pas en Irak de manière exponentielle d'ici à 2015, nous avons un très gros problème, même si l'Arabie saoudite respecte ses engagements. Les chiffres sont très simples, il n'y a pas besoin d'être un expert." (If Iraqi production does not rise exponentially by 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia fulfills all its promises. T)he numbers are very simple, there's no need to be an expert.

And as long as the US occupies Iraq, production will not increase... Houston, we have a problem... The whole interview is amazingly frank and free of diplomatic obfuscation. He blasts biofuels ("not based on any kind of economic rationality"), he notes that Africa is suffering the most already from expensive oil, he points out that even a slowing of China's growth will not reduce oil demand, and he talks pretty explicitly about production peaks and depletion:

"D'ici cinq à dix ans, la production pétrolière hors-OPEP va atteindre un maximum avant de commencer à décliner, faute de réserves suffisantes. Il y a chaque jour de nouvelles preuves de ce fait. Au même moment aura lieu le pic de la phase d'expansion économique de la Chine. Les deux événements vont coïncider : l'explosion de la croissance de la demande chinoise, et la chute de la production hors pays de l'OPEP. Notre système pétrolier sera-t-il capable de répondre à ce défi, c'est la question." (Within 5 to 10 years, non-OPEP production will reach a peak and begin to decline, as reserves run out. There are new proofs of that fact every day. At the same we'll see the peak of China's economic growth. The two events will coincide: the explosion of Chinese growth, and the fall in non-OPEP oil production. Will the oil world manage to face that twin shock is an open question.)

He says it again twice in the interview: the gap between demand and supply will widen, and he blasts our governments for doing so little:

"Malheureusement, il y a beaucoup de paroles, mais peu d'actes. J'espère vraiment que les nations consommatrices vont comprendre la gravité de la situation, et mettre en place des politiques très fortes et radicales pour ralentir la hausse de la demande de pétrole." (Unfortunately, there's a lot of talk, but very little action. I really hope that consuming nations will understand the gravity of the situation and put in place radical and extremely tough policies to curb oil demand growth.)

EDIT

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2721#more

I don't speak French and so can't vouch for the accuracy of the translation.

[pscot]

1. With the clear understanding that no-one gives a shit

Here's a kick and a recommendation. Was this even hinted at in the so-called debate last night?

[hatrack]

4. I can't say, since I didn't listen or watch . . .

If energy even came up, I think the words "ethanol", "CAFE" and "hydrogen" were likely about as deep as it got.

But, as noted, I didn't see the event - just running on recollections of debates past.

[NNadir]

2. Mais, en France les choses serait meilleurs, je crois.

France will survive without oil. It may be very difficult there as everywhere, but they, at least, will survive.

I apologize to any French speakers for my bad French by the way. I winged it.

[Warren Stupidity]

3. Anyone who still doesn't understand what we are doing in mesopatamia

is either willfully ignorant (which would encompass 70% of our citizens) or just plain old stupid.

It is blood for oil and it always has been. The official planning started with Cheney's secret energy task force, the unofficial planning began with PNAC.

[Delphinus]

5. He ends it with this question:

The only question left is - will our governments listen, now?

I wish some country would step up to the plate and be brave enough to talk the truth. (Republican) Rep. Roscoe Bartlett has been trying for almost four years now - anyone notice any changes?

[hatrack]

6. The fact that the Senate did actually pass CAFE legislation . . .

Other than that, it's been Ethanolapalooza, with some mouse-like squeakings regarding renewable standards, and not much more.