This planet ain't big enough for the 6,500,000,000

[Delphinus]

From The Independent

Behind the climate crisis lies a global issue that no one wants to tackle: do we need radical plans to reduce the world's population? Chris Rapley sparks the debate

Published: 27 June 2007

What do the following have in common: the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, Earth's average temperature and the size of the human population? Answer: each was, for a long period of Earth's history, held in a state of equilibrium. Whether it's the burning of fossil fuels versus the rate at which plants absorb carbon, or the heat absorbed from sunshine versus the heat reflected back into space, or global birth rates versus death rates - each is governed by the difference between an inflow and an outflow, and even small imbalances can have large effects. At present, all of these three are out of balance as a result of human actions. And each of these imbalances is creating a major problem.

Second question: how do these three differ? Answer: human carbon emissions and climate change are big issues at the top of the news agenda. And rightly so, since they pose a substantial threat. But population growth is almost entirely ignored. Which is odd, since it is at the root of the environmental crisis, and it represents a danger to health and socioeconomic development.

The statistics are quite remarkable. For most of the two million years of human history, the population was less than a quarter of a million. The advent of agriculture led to a sustained increase, but it took thousands of years, until 1800, before the planet was host to a billion humans. Since then growth has accelerated - we hit 2 billion in 1930, 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1975, 5 billion in 1987 and 6 billion in 1999. Today's grand total is estimated to be 6.5 billion, with a growth rate of 80 million each year.

To what can we attribute such a dramatic rise? Impressive increases in the food supply have played a part, but the underlying driver has been the shift from an "organic" society, in which energy was drawn from the wind, water, beasts of burden (including humans) and wood, to a fossil fuel-based world in which most of our energy is obtained by burning coal, oil and gas. This transition has fuelled the changes in quality of life associated with modern technology, especially the major advances in hygiene and medicine. Although unevenly distributed, these bounties have seen life expectancy double and a corresponding reduction in mortality rates.

{snip}
http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2714840.ece

[elocs]

1. Mother Nature: you have it hard or you can have it easy.

We, the world, are very likely going to get it hard. A massive population correction will eventually be in the works.

[Delphinus]

2. I'm wondering

if that's what the next Bird Flu will be - a way to set things right upon the planet, find a balance.

[Dogmudgeon]

3. Here's how nature does it --

Population boom.

Overshoot.

Resource depletion.

Mass starvation.

Die-off.

Repeat until intelligence evolves.

--p!

[Delphinus]

5. Laughed out loud at this:

Repeat until intelligence evolves. :rofl:

[glitch]

8. Me too! Good one. nt

[brokensymmetry]

16. So are you suggesting...

that humankind has evolved to yeast-cell status
and stagnated?

:D

Seriously, great post!

[pscot]

4. Try explaining that to the pope

n/t

[RedEarth]

6. Here is another article dealing with Peak Food and Population Overshoot

Peak Food and Population Overshoot
by John Rawlins


John Rawlins has a B.S. in physics and a Ph.D. in nuclear physics. He retired in 1995 from the Westinghouse Hanford Co. at the Hanford site in Eastern Washington. Currently, he teaches physics and astronomy at Whatcom Community College.

Part 3
A wall chart in the Whatcom Community College physics lab shows the historical (and projected future) curve of oil extraction along with other geo-petroleum data. There is also a curve on the chart that, because of its color, is difficult to see and is easy to overlook entirely. When I ask a student in my energy class to notice it and tell everyone else what the label on the curve is, there’s always a moment of realization and the dawning of a major future problem in a world with declining oil availability. The nearly invisible curve shows world population versus time, and the population curve correlates perfectly with the oil extraction rate curve.

Before oil (and natural gas) humans used manual labor to grow food, and the amount of food determines an upper limit on population. The large-scale, increasing use of oil and natural gas in the industrial world’s food-growing enterprise has meant ever-increasing quantities of food — until now. Therefore, population increase over the past 150 years correlates very well with oil extraction.

By far the largest population increase in the history of humans occurred in the 20th century, and the resources making that possible were oil and natural gas. Now that we face a very near-term decline in both of these resources, it is time to start planning how we will continue to feed a population of over 6 billion humans. In about 100 years, when oil and gas are essentially gone, will it even be possible to provide enough food for six to 10 times as many people as populated the planet before oil and gas? This article will summarize what I’ve learned during the past three years on this subject, which still troubles me far more than anything else related to peak oil/gas and climate change. This is a challenging topic to think about, because I continue trying to find reason for hope when the logic seems to provide little justification for it. Still, we can learn from our past, and there are some seeds for food-growing ideas there.

Humans Used Technology Breakthroughs to Increase Food Supply and Population
In my energy class students think about a one-page table showing a summary of the history of human population increases and the technological breakthroughs that enabled those increases. From a few million years B.C. to around 10,000 B.C. world population was likely in the few million range, and the technologies that were important in that period included use of fire, tool-making, spears, and bow-and-arrow. During this period, humans were in hunter-gatherer-scavenger groups. They ate mostly what nature provided: fruits, nuts, berries and meat from other mammals. During this, the longest time period on the list, remember that a few million humans were matched with the available natural food supply.

.........

Whatever the answer to Earth’s carrying capacity turns out to be, we must learn very, very soon about lower-energy methods for food production and start implementing them as rapidly as possible. One interesting case study comes from Cuba, which lost much of its oil supply (from Russia) when the former Soviet Union collapsed. Following some scary years amidst fear of wide-spread starvation, most Cubans are now involved in food production in fields and yards, and the practice of food growing advocated by permaculture activists has taken root in Cuba. One of the fundamental ideas of permaculture is to plant food species that require less human energy than the conventional intensively managed vegetable garden. The concept of forest gardens — involving fruit and nut trees, combined with perennial understory plants such as berries and food-producing groundcover — evolved from permaculture ideas. In essence, such forest gardens are a dense source of food for the future’s hunters and gatherers. Even today’s urban and suburban dwellers can participate by replacing their grassy lawns with perennial food crops. A future article will describe in more detail the business of forest gardening and permaculture.


http://www.whatcomwatch.org/php/WW_open.php?id=765

[Gregorian]

7. This is why I came to DU.

And still, there is no place to discuss this.

Simply put, the first part of the exponential curve is stability, and very low growth. The last part of that curve is instability and very high growth. Very little input results in very high change, now. And that goes for anything we do. Driving, having children, everything.

But people are short sighted and selfish. AND the population problem really belongs to our parents. But they're dead and gone now. It's a hit and run situation. They breed, we suffer the consequences.

There is so much to discuss regarding this topic, and so little room and tolerance for discussion. After all, who doesn't have kids. Everybody is sharing in the guilt, and nobody wants to talk about it except a few of us who have been watching like hawks.

It's why there is global warming. It's why real estate is expensive. It's why we are in Iraq. You can argue, but before doing so, if you think about why, you'll see the answer. Why we're in Iraq is not as much about Bush as about the scarcity of oil. And that is about how many are using it.

We must start thinking WE instead of ME. Every time one does something they must realize that 6.5 billion are going to do it.

I am tired. There appears to be no forum for this discussion. And even when presented with the truth, even the most liberal of thinkers will deny what they hear. But I guarantee, no matter what I say, the truth will bear this out in time. And this is why no matter what kind of new car we design, I counter with my negative remarks. Billions of cars, no matter what kind, are not going to be in equilibrium with nature in these numbers. And houses. And medical supply demands. And water. And food. What people need to recognize are limits. Smaller, slower, less. All dirty words.

Why can't more people see. Why the blindness. Why so many happy parents who just don't get it. It's been boggling my mind for thirty years. And this is what lead me to find a forum like DU. Well, at least I learned about politics in the meantime.



edit- What I wanted to say was this- In the early part of the exponential curve, we can all have ten kids, and the overall number of people remains relatively the same. Not a big increase. But when we are in the later part of the curve, if we even have two kids, the numbers grow astronomically. This is significant. It's not just words. It's real life three dimensional disaster in the making. There aren't enough forests to make the wood to build the houses for us all as we sit here now. Oh well. Maybe in my next lifetime I'll learn how to communicate effectively. This lifetime was spent observing and watching, and being horrified and disgusted. Dalai Lama or no Dalai Lama. I tried. I can't not be digusted.

[TroubleMan]

9. Just wait until the oil runs out - look at this chart:

Scary.

[Magical]

10. Not much doubt what is Planned....

Hear it from an insider's mouth....Listen to both George Green interviews
http://www.consciousmedianetwork.com/home.htm

Enough said.

[glitch]

12. Nice resource, thanks for posting. nt

[bananas]

13. A UFO contactee?

His book was channeled by ET...

http://www.nomorehoaxes.com/content/view/20/52/

"THE BIG PICTURE"

George reveals how he was contacted,
Why he was chosen and
the vital message he agreed to relay.

UFO sightings are frequently reported, but how many people can actually say they regularly communicate with "space beings." George has made an agreement to publish the extraterrestrial information to "awaken" us earthlings so we may all be in contact (those that choose to be). George will discuss how and when he saw his first spacecraft, subsequent investigation and how things began to "happen" in his life.

How Earth began as a "prison planet" - a penal colony for the universe.
Why the latest "Star Trek" movie parallels the aliens urgent message to Earth.
An overview of how you can be part of the solution to the "happenings" on the planet.
The 300 most powerful people who control every major decision on Earth.
An incredible slide show of close-up pictures of several "beamships" and pictures of our space brothers/sisters (who live to be 1000 years old).
The Plan 2000 (The PLAN TO BEGIN WWIII) and how that will act upon your lives. BIOLOGICAL WARFARE AND PROTECTION.
The planned financial collapse and what you can do about it.

CREDENTIALS: A former investment banker (Registered Financial Principal with the N.A.S.D. and a Broker/Dealer. Securities Underwriter, Real Estate Developer, Insurance Broker and Publisher. A frequent guest on radio and TV talk shows. He is Publisher of "Handbook for the New Paradigm" written by the ET's. Each attendee will receive a complimentary copy. He is President of Global Insights, Inc. George Green has spoken to 1000s of people through his lectures and has appeared on numerous talk shows and TV shows telling his story.

[glitch]

11. Certainly not at our current efficiencies and consumption "privileges"

We'll find out if we really are clever monkeys soon enough. Not taking bets here but I could be wrong.

[truedelphi]

14. There is no need to worry. Infertility of the human species

is imminent. It will be about 96 % over the next several decades.

Theo Colburn's investigation into the altered reproductive organs, altered hormones of reptiles like frogs indicates that with the continued push into chemicalized products (Spray Lysol! Spray Glade! Eat foods wrapped then heated and eaten while surrounded by plastics) all this research indicates that pretty soon the infertility of the human population will be in surmountable for all but a few. (Those few will be those wealthy enough to undergo the huge expanse for artificial means to procreation.)

Warren Porter of University of Wisconsin also predicts this trailing off of the human race.
http://tinyurl.com/yqm2g7 then scroll down to article titled "Insects' Revenge"

[glitch]

15. I read somewhere that each new generation reproductive ability drops 30%

starting with those born in the 50s. Won't take long with that rate of decline.

[OneBlueSky]

17. I recall a book by Paul Ehrlich call "The Population Bomb" . . .

from back in the '60s, I think . . . it was widely read and discussed at the time . . . the premise was that the planet indeed cannot support upteen billions of people without a total environmental collapse . . . think I still have a copy somewhere . . .

[bananas]

18. Yeah, his predictions were way off

"According to Ehrlich, the United States would see its life expectancy drop to 42 years by 1980 because of pesticide usage, and the nation's population would drop to 22.6 million by 1999"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

[phantom power]

19. You know, if he was off by 50 years, or even 100, it's nothing in geological time.