UCS Report - Global Warming Will Hit U.S. Northeast Hard Unless Action Taken Now;

[YankeyMCC]

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CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (July 11, 2007)—If heat-trapping emissions are not significantly curtailed, global warming will substantially change critical aspects of the Northeast's character and economy, according to a new report by the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), a two-year collaboration between the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and a team of more than 50 scientists and economists. Near-term choices about energy, transportation, and land-use will largely determine the extent and severity of climate change.

"Global warming represents an enormous challenge, but we can meet it if we act swiftly," said Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy at UCS and chair of the NECIA team. "Our response to global warming in the next few years will shape the climate our children and grandchildren inherit."
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Climate: The two emissions scenarios would lead to starkly different climates when children born today reach middle age. Under the higher-emissions scenario, winters in the Northeast could warm by 8°F to 12°F and summers by 6°F to 14°F above historic levels by late this century. But under the lower-emission scenario, temperatures during Northeast winters are projected to warm only 5°F to 8°F above historic levels by late-century, and summers by just 3°F to 7°F.

Coastlines: Global sea level is conservatively projected to rise 10 to 23 inches under the higher-emissions scenario and 7 to 14 inches under the lower-emissions scenario. Using these estimates, cities such as Boston and Atlantic City can expect a coastal flood equivalent to today's 100-year flood every two to four years on average by mid-century and almost annually by the end of the century under either scenario. New York City is projected to face flooding equivalent to today's 100-year flood once every decade on average under the higher-emissions scenario and once every two decades under the lower-emissions scenario by century's end. Sea-level rise is also projected to increase shoreline erosion and wetland loss, particularly along the vulnerable coasts of Cape Cod, Long Island, and the Jersey Shore.

Agriculture: By late-century under the higher-emissions scenario, heat stress in cows is projected to cut milk production across much of the region by 5 to 20 percent in certain months, with the greatest losses in the key dairy state of Pennsylvania. Parts of the Northeast are projected to become unsuitable for growing certain popular varieties of apples, blueberries, and cranberries by mid-century, since they require long winter-chill periods to produce fruit. Meanwhile, weed problems and pest-related damage are likely to escalate, increasing pressures on farmers to use more herbicides and pesticides. By contrast, changes expected under the lower-emissions scenario are generally much less extensive.

Marine fisheries: As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the range of suitable habitat in the Northeast for many fish and shellfish species such as cod and lobster is projected to shift northward. Cod are expected to disappear from the region's waters south of Cape Cod during this century, under either emissions scenario. With higher emissions, the renowned fishing grounds of Georges Bank will likely lose its cod stocks. The lobster populations in Long Island Sound and the nearshore waters off Rhode Island and south of Cape Cod are expected to be lost by mid-century under either scenario.
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http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/global-warming-to-hit-0044.html

[endarkenment]

1. Executive summary: we are screwn. nt.