Barclay's - Except In ME, Global Light Oil Production Already In Decline - Lloyd's List

[hatrack]

LIGHT oil production is already in decline, except in the reserve-rich Middle East, forcing consumer nations to utilise unconventional resources such as heavy oil, sour crudes and natural gas liquids. Geological constraints, although not the only reason, seem to have affected production levels in most of the main basins outside Opec, providing little comfort to those who hope a supply crunch can be averted.

Analysts at Barclays believe that mature basins outside Opec will be the biggest cause of a supply crunch: “One of the key dynamics of non-Opec supply in recent years has been its ability to massively disappoint,” Barclays says. “We believe that the main culprit is the dynamics of mature production, and this year it has been most evident in Mexico and Norway.”

The US has been in decline since the early 1970s, despite new output from Alaska and recent deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico.

In Latin America, only Brazil can boast rising oil production, mainly due to its long term investments in exploration and development of deepwater fields. Mexico remains a strong oil producer, thanks to its giant Cantarell complex and the new Ku-Maloob-Zaap project, but its own growing domestic demand means exports are shrinking. There could be huge reserves of hydrocarbons in Mexico’s deeper waters, but it will take around seven to 10 years to explore, discover and develop these resources. Venezuela, which is an aggressive member and co-founder of Opec, continues to develop its own heavy oil Orinoco complex, but this does not improve the tight supply of light oils.

EDIT

http://lloydslist.com/ll/news/viewArticle.htm?articleId=1183553738589

[phantom power]

1. Heh. "it's ability to massively disappoint"

Peak oil sarcasm. Funny and sickening in one tasty morsel.

[hatrack]

2. Must be that British understatement, one supposes . . .

:evilgrin:

[snappyturtle]

3. Cantarell production is down and according to Reuters

Ku-Muloob-Zaap project may not be able to make up the difference fast enough. More at.........

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2636032620070626

Also, I have haven't got the link at my finger tips, didn't Calderone send 5,000 troops to protect Cantarell last week to protect it from a militant fringe group?

[kestrel91316]

4. In my microscopic effort to be part of the solution rather than part of

the problem, I rode my bike to work today............3 miles.

[lakeguy]

5. right on!

i started biking to my new job last fall and even did fairly well through the snowy and frigid winter. 10 miles is my trip, one way. it only takes about 10 minutes longer than using my car (during rush hour) too!

[Dogmudgeon]

6. We have abundant oil. We have cheap oil.

But the cheap stuff isn't abundant, and the abundant stuff isn't cheap.

Damn! Now we have to decide between food and fuel, and between building 5000 nuclear reactors and two million windmills.

--p!
I hate when that happens!

[4dsc]

7. Please note EXPORTS are/will decrease

with expanding economies of the oil producing countries tied with peak oil production will result in decreased oil EXPORTS!! The writing's on the wall folks..