Very Interesting AMSR Image Of Sea Ice Minima - 79 -82 & 02 - 05 Means, 2005 Minimum Compared

[hatrack]

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/SeaIceMinima2002-2005-contour50.png

[FogerRox]

1. looks like one could sail from the Atlantic, past UK to the Bering Sea, to the Pacific

[Dogmudgeon]

2. I think the Pole will be navigable within 22 days

August 20th -- or a few days either way. And if I'm wrong, we should know around the tenth.

I'd also give it a 60% chance that there will be at least one polynya that survives the winter, of at least 1000 km^2 area at minimum (which is usually the end of February).

Maximum melt is due around September 10-20.

--p!

[happyslug]

3. Russia has been doing that since at least WWII

But by using Ice Breakers, they have even shipped cargo via that route to locations in Siberia. The US has done the same along Canada's Northern Borders but only with Warships (and I do NOT mean Submarines, but Surface Ships.

The real issue is how will this affect the weather worldwide. Minimal as to sea levels for the Ice that has melted displaced the water it is now (in affect NO change in Ocean levels). The real concern is the affect on the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is grounded on LAND. Will this accelerate the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which WILL INCREASE WORLD WIDE SEA LEVELS.

[happyslug]

4. Are the Russian Rivers that much warmer this year?

The Biggest source of Fresh water into the Arctic flows from Siberia and Russia.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/12/1212_021213_arcticrivers.html
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-river.shtml
http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/sabl/2005/March/01-arctic-rivers.html

The Following Rivers flow into the Arctic from Siberia and Russia with the three biggest rivers being the Ob, Yenisei and Lena Rivers.

List of Russian Rivers that flow into the Arctic:
Barents Sea and White Sea (Arctic Ocean)
The rivers in this section are sorted east to west.

* Pechora (north-east of Naryan-Mar)
* Northern Dvina (in Severodvinsk)
* Mezen (near Mezen)
* Onega (in Onega)
* Kem (in Kem)
* Niva (in Kandalaksha)
* Varzuga (in Kuzomen)
* Ponoy (in Ponoy)
* Iokanga (in Iokanga)
* Voronya

Arctic Ocean, east of Ural
The rivers in this section are sorted west to east.

* Ob (to Gulf of Ob)
* Nadym (into Gulf of Ob in Khorovaya)
* Pur (into Gulf of Taz in Ivay-Sale)
* Taz (into Gulf of Taz in Tazovsky)
* Pyasina (east of Gulf of Taz)
* Yenisei
* Khatanga (near Kozhevnikovo)
* Anabar (at Khorgo)
* Olenyok (in Ust-Olenyok)
* Lena (near Tiksi)
* Yana (in Nizhneyansk)
* Indigirka (near Tabor, Sakha)
* Alazeya
* Kolyma (near Ambarchik)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rivers_of_Russia

The Yukon is often stated as a Arctic River, but in flows into the Bering Seas and thus the main push of its water is into the Pacific. For the Fresh water to enter the Arctic it must past through the Bering Straits.

The Mackenzie River is the largest river that flows into the Arctic from North America, its discharges, 9,700 cubic metres per second of water into the arctic (Average volume)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mackenzie_River

Compare this to the top Three Russian Rivers, all provide more water:
Ob, 12,500 m³/s http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ob_River
Lena 17,000 m³/s http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lena_River
Yenisei 19,600 m³/s http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yenisei_River

Furthermore, Canada has few other Rivers that flow into the Arctic or even Hudson Bay. The Islands to the North of Canada blocks MOST the the flows from these small rivers from flowing North. Thus most of the Water getting into the Arctic is from Russia. In fact if you look at these rivers, they start in the Himalayans and flow NORTH. They seem to have kept Siberian from having the Ice Sheet North America had in the last ice Age, now they are melting the Arctic Ice Cap.

My point is that why is the Arctic melting more on its Russian Border then the Canadian/Alaskan. Greenland Side? The Greater flow may be enough, but is increased temperature in Siberia also a factor? Just an observation of WHY the Arctic is melting the way it is.

[KingofNewOrleans]

5. Your answer--

Ice on the Siberian side of the Arctic flows across the NP and out thru the Fram straight (between Greenland and Svalbard). The other side of the Arctic is dominated by the Beaufort gyre (a circular current) and actually rotates back down along the Canadian archipelago and towards the Canadian-Alaskan coast. Sea Ice on the Beaufort side tends to older and thicker because of this circulation, while ice on the Siberian side usually exits within two-three years, unless it melts first, which it increasingly does.

It's most obvious in the summer. As sea ice melts along Siberia, it's also being push away from the coast by the transpolar current. As sea ice melts in the Beaufort, it's being replaced by old ice pushing back down along the Canadian archipelago.

[happyslug]

6. Given your map of the Currents, the Ice Shelf protect Greenland Ice Sheet

Ice Shelves float on top of the Water, Ice Sheets are grounded on land. It is theorized that Ice Shelves protect Ice Sheets from the affect of increase Ocean Temperature (From whatever source). If the Ice Shelves disappear, then the increase in Ocean Temperature will affect the Greenland Ice Sheet by warming the surrounding ocean, which in turn will warm up the Greenland ice Sheet melting it and increasing world wide sea level.

Thus the Transpolar Draft is the most frightening part of the Arctic ocean Currents, and something we much watch.

[KingofNewOrleans]

10. Yes, the loss of sea ice

will make the Arctic climate more maritime and in the case of Greenland lead to potential of greater melting (also the potential of more precipitation). It is quite clear than scientists underestimated the rate at which the Arctic sea ice can decrease because of the feedback loop that open water and albedo provides.

However, don't get carried away with feedback loop with Greenland. The vast majority of sea ice in the Arctic is 3 meters or less, so a modest increase in temperature can change (and has changed) the ice to open water in a matter of years. And more open water begets more retention of the sun's heat and more open water. The vast majority of the ice sheet on Greenland is way, way, more than 3 meters , so the opportunity for more land surface to be exposed, providing for more heat retained, providing for more melting (feedback loop) is much, much more limited on Greenland than in the Arctic Sea.


The real unknown in our lifetime or the next 50-100 years is how much of a sea rise has to occur before the West Antarctic Ice Shelf becomes unstable. If it can handle a foot or two foot rise, then sea rise would be manageable, at least in most countries, though requiring considerable effort to manage. If the WAIS can't handle that rise, then you'll get the dramatic sea rise, that would require massive relocation and probably can only be handled by a handful of countries engaged in something akin to WWII communal efforts.

[happyslug]

12. WAIS is often called the Godzilla of Global Warming.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is the biggest concern when it comes to Global Warming. Unlike the simlar sized Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the even larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) the WAIS is grounded BELOW sea level. As such it can collapse overnight, the other two Ice Sheet (GIS and the EAIS) may take Decades to melt away, the WAIS can disappear OVERNIGHT. If the WAIS should collapse you can see a 20 feet raise in world wide Seal Levels. This may even occur over night and that is why it is called the Godzilla of Global Warming, it is believe to have happened 120,000 years ago in the "Madhouse Century"

http://www.imaja.com/as/environment/can/journal/madhousecentury.html

[happyslug]

13. Duplicate. deleted

[FogerRox]

7. what are the purple squares, downwelling locations?

[happyslug]

8. He took the map from this site, but it does NOT state what the purple Boxes are.

http://nsidc.org/seaice/processes/circulation.html

I suspect they are where the warm waters of the Gulf Stream Generally STOP do to meeting a Cold Current. i.e. where the two currents, cold and warm. meet and stop/merge or does whatever when two currents run into each other and stop flowing do to an equal flow from the other direction.

Home page for the above from the "National Snow and Ice Data Center", Subtopic about Sea Ice.
http://nsidc.org/seaice/

[KingofNewOrleans]

9. Yes, they mark downwelling

The point at the warm Gulf Stream water has cooled and become saline enough to sink and begin the journey back down on the thermohaline circulation. They are of course approximate as the downwelling points can vary from year to year and of course time of year. Trying to measure the rate of downwelling and the Thermohaline circulation is still not very well documented.

[happyslug]

11. Down welling is an unknown topic for most people

Down welling is the point were a current of the Gulf Stream STOPS flowing NORTH. Water is still pushing it forward so the water MUST go DOWNWARD. When water goes DOWNWARD it MUST get colder, so it releases whatever heat it may retain. It is this release of heat as the Gulf Stream water sink is why Europe is warmer than any place else at the same Latitude (London is near the same Latitude as Quebec and Moscow, both are MUCH colder than London).

Anyway as the water sinks it gives up whatever heat it has and starts to flow southward. This starts the Great Ocean Conveyor that takes the salt in these water to the Pacific via the Indians Ocean. Once in the Pacific the Water gives up its salt in the deep ocean trenches of the Pacific and starts to flow back West, heading to the Gulf of Mexico where it forms part of the Gulf Stream and the system starts allover again. This is a simplification of the Ocean Conveyor but sets forth base knowledge of the system. For more details you have to do some research on the OCean Conveyor AND the fact it MIGHT be slowing down do to excessive heat in the system (Anther result of Global Warming).

[FogerRox]

14. That is the area where the thermohalene downwells... No ?

Like between Norway and Greenland.