Toiling In The Dark - Africa's Power Crisis - "Unprecedented"; "Crippling Shortages" - NYT

[hatrack]

EDIT

The implications go beyond candlelight suppers and extra blankets on beds. The lack of reliable power has already begun to hamper the region’s development, clipping more than 2 percent off the annual growth rates of the worst-hit African economies, according to the World Bank. Some nations, like Ghana, have tried to deal with their power crises by leasing huge teams of gas generators, producing emergency power at exorbitant rates until power plants can be built.

In Nigeria, Angola and some other nations, virtually all businesses and many residents run private generators to supplement faltering public service, saddling economies with added costs and worsening pollution. “I’ve been on the 20th floor of an apartment building in Luanda, and there would be generators on all the verandas, with the racket, the fumes,” said Anton Eberhard, a former electricity regulator and an expert on power at the University of Cape Town. “And the lift isn’t working, because the main power supply is off.”

In normal times, South Africa’s muscular chain of power plants fills the gaps of its neighbors. But South Africa now could experience up to seven years of its own electricity shortages. Rolling blackouts blanketed parts of the country in January, and sporadic power failures have persisted since.

The gravity of this year’s shortage is all the more apparent considering how little electricity sub-Saharan Africa has to begin with. Excluding South Africa, whose economy and power consumption dwarf other nations’, the region’s remaining 700 million citizens have access to roughly as much electricity as do the 38 million citizens of Poland. Much goes to industry: a single aluminum smelter near Mozambique’s capital, Maputo, gobbles four times as much power as the entire rest of Mozambique. On average, the World Bank says, fewer than one in four sub-Saharan Africans are hooked to national electricity grids. Moreover, some grids are so poorly maintained that electricity suppliers get paid for as little as 60 percent of the power they generate. The rest is either stolen or lost in ill-maintained networks.

EDIT

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/29/world/africa/29power.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

[NNadir]

1. It's an unbelievable scandal. It really is.

Most of the world couldn't care less.

No Rwanda, no Dafur, no Chad, no Nigeria, no Congo inspires outrage.

[Massacure]

4. But But But, the World Bank IS supplying energy to the poor nations.

Solar energy will save the poor, and Jpak even says so!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x100241

See? :evilgrin:

[Dead_Parrot]

6. They're obviously just being greedy

I mean, it's not like there's 2 billion of them. Oh, wait...

[jpak]

13. Yes, Grasshopper - you have learned your lessons well

Solar *will* save the poor in the developing world...

:evilgrin:

Small PV systems currently serve over a million homes in the developing world and in some African countries (like Kenya) sales of small PV systems are increasing dramatically...

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B73D8-4J77J54-T&_user=2139839&_coverDate=02%2F28%2F2006&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000054279&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=2139839&md5=633d3b08ffd1014e6e6c434ee9e334e5

<snip>

Solar PV-based rural electrification

At present, the international market for photovoltaic electricity systems is in the middle of a period of dramatic growth (A. Jaeger-Waldau 2005). With the exception of South Africa, grid electricity in rural Sub-Saharan Africa is currently almost non-existent. Solar markets are growing to meet this latent rural demand, but they still only reach a small percentage of the total potential market. In the last decade, solar home systems (SHS) have received significant attention as a strategy for expanding rural electricity services in developing countries using a private market model, when grid extension is considered to be too costly or an unlikely option in the near term. It is estimated that 1.3 million solar home systems had been installed in developing countries by early 2000, at that moment one out of every 100 households that gains access to electricity uses solar power (Nieuwenhout, van Dijk et al. 2001). As of 2002, 50-125 MWp of off-grid PV had been installed in Africa. According to Duke and Kammen (Duke and Kammen, 2003 and Duke and Kammen, 1999) there is a potential solar home system market of 63 million households in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is out of a global total of approximately 330 million unelectrified homes (Table 2). SHS account for roughly one third of the off-grid PV capacity installed in Africa. The remainder of the capacity is used in telecommunications and other various government and donor projects in health, education, and water supply.

<snip and see Table 2>

Rural families are reporting high value associated with TV or radio, evening lights, and charging cell phones. Solar electricity is “connective power” for rural people; its use is playing an important role in increasing interconnections between rural Africans and people, institutions, and ideas in national and international urban centres. At present these interconnections are made primarily through solar powered television, radios, and cellular telephones (Jacobson 2004). All of these play an important role in the social, economic, and political development of rural Africa, and cellular telephones in particular are emerging to play a key role in facilitating rural economic growth.

In addition, clinics, schools, and community centres also provide valuable services to rural and peri-urban areas that would benefit from solar PV electrification. Particularly important services are refrigeration of vaccinations, lighting for classrooms and examinations (particularly child-birth), and telephone and internet communications services for rural and peri-urban communities. These community services are important areas that are largely left out of the current development of solar markets. Table 3 draws on a review of East African countries and shows that there is a large solar market potential in each of these different potential applications of solar (ESD 2003)

<more>

[Dogmudgeon]

17. Two questions --

1. When do we start manufacturing these things?

2. What do we do about the toxic waste?

Solar cells are still quite expensive. Manufacturing a whole lot of them for Africa would certainly bring the price down -- but then, Americans and Europeans would demand to buy them. (The waste will stay in Africa, of course.)

--p!

[jpak]

19. They will be made in China and sold to Africa

China does a lot of business in Africa.

*One* Chinese company recently announced they will expand their production capacity to 1600 MW per year.

That's a lot of 20-50 watt PV panels.

And, unlike decommissioned nuclear reactors, every bit of a PV module can be *safely* recycled.

No toxic waste required...

[GliderGuider]

2. The crisis nibbles at humanity's extremeties as we sleep

This is how it starts. Remember how the tsunami looked at first like a low, thin, puny little wave in those tourist videos? "Sure, a few people down on the beach are going to get wet, but there's no way it could get to us up here on the hotel veranda. Right? After all, this is a modern building with electricity and the Internet and cars parked in the lot. A little wave isn't going to do a damn thing to us here in our plastic patio chairs..."

[happyslug]

3. And increasing the demand for Oil, when the demand is already high

While it is possible these generators are operating off natural gas, wind, solar etc. I suspect 99% of them are gasoline or Diesel powered. Given that most of this is use by INDUSTRY not individuals, the willingness to buy is almost as high as in the developed World. Further evidence that the price of oil WILL CONTINUE TO GO UP.

Please note, I am meaning the LONG TERM TREND, not the day to day, month to month trend, these later trends will go up and down, but the Long term trend will be UPWARD until it reaches a point where stable part of the population can not longer afford oil. I see High Prices hitting the US first. for th following reasons:

1. Most of the third world can fall back onto pre-oil technology for transport if oil gets to high, and adapt to NOT using oil. Most of the Third world and Former Warsaw Pack Countries have already done so. What oil they are using they are willing to pay top price for. The worker on the Street may have to walk to work, but Industry that needs oil will get it even if they have to outbid US auto drivers.

2. Europe and Japan have already HIGH oil prices, those people who can not afford oil, don't use it now and most people who do use oil minimize use do to high prices (i.e. a lot of Europeans use Mopeds, walk and use public transportation to get to work and home) thus minimal use of Oil and since the alternatives exist people who are suing oil can quit easily). Again Industry who can NOT use something else will pay whatever to get its oil, even if that means outbidding US auto Drivers.

Those are the Foreign "Competitors" for buying OIL. The Weak link in those countries either have given up on using oil OR have an alternative. Who is the weak link in the US? The person who drives to work. MY brother told me his boss is having a problem hiring workers at the store he works at. Most of these employees can NOT afford to pay for the gas if all they are getting is part time minimum wage work. Thus it is already affecting American Employers. Will this continue? I suspect it will. How will the candidates address it? It is the NEXT sign that peak oil has arrived and the economic affects will be extensive in the US.

[brokensymmetry]

5. Olduvai Gorge theory?

Looks like it's on track...

[Dogmudgeon]

7. The Toshiba 4S reactor

"Super Safe, Small and Simple" -- it's also described as an "atomic battery". Power output, 10-50 MWe, fulfilling one of Al Gore's two remaining criteria for making nuclear energy an attractive solution. (His other concern is proliferation; however, he has said on many occasions, "I am not opposed to nuclear energy".)

Here is most of the Wikipedia entry; no links, but with bold formating by me:

Toshiba 4S

The Toshiba 4S (Super Safe, Small and Simple) is a “nuclear battery” reactor design. It requires only minimal staffing.

The technical specifications of the 4S reactor are unique in the nuclear industry. The actual reactor would be located in sealed, cylindrical vault 30 m (98 ft) underground, while the building above ground would be 22 x 16 x 11 m (72 × 52.5 x 36 ft) in size. This power plant is designed to provide 10 Megawatts of power.

The 4S uses neutron reflector panels around the perimeter to maintain neutron density. These reflector panels replace complicated control rods, yet keep the ability to shut down the nuclear reaction in case of an emergency. Additionally, the Toshiba 4S utilizes liquid sodium as a coolant, allowing the reactor to operate 200 degrees hotter than if it used water. This means that the reactor is depressurized, as water at this temperature would run at thousands of pounds per square inch.

The reactor is expected to provide electric energy for between 5 and 13 cents/kWh, which factors in only operating costs. On paper, it has been determined that the reactor could run for 30 years without being refueled.

The Toshiba 4S Nuclear Battery is being proposed as the power source for the Galena Nuclear Power Plant in Galena, Alaska.

SSTAR is a very similar concept, and IRIS is a design for a low-power Gen4 reactor. Both are linked at the article.

Here is a link to the proposal for Galena, Alaska.

--p!

[bananas]

9. "The City...can't come close to meeting the financial requirements for owning a nuclear facility"

http://www.kiyu.com/news1006_2.htm

<snip>

One of many unanswered questions is who will own the nuclear plant. The City cannot own the plant by itself because it can’t come close to meeting the financial requirements for owning a nuclear facility. Federal regulations require that the owners of a nuclear plant demonstrate their ability to pay for construction, fuel, start-up costs, insurance, and other liabilities. In Galena’s case, this could mean posting tens of millions of dollars in bonds.

<snip>

[Dogmudgeon]

10. That's a shame. And a lot of it is politics.

I didn't see any dollar amounts mentioned other than "tens of millions of dollars in bonds". It may be a hefty charge. There is also a thicket of laws and political agreements that first have to be met. And the insurance industry will demand a huge chunk of change under the Price-Anderson act that everyone is convinced is written to favor the nuclear industry. (Some favor, huh?)

The state of Alaska could underwrite a loan, which the local anti-nuclearists won't like. But they will also have to underwrite a loan for the diesel generator, which the oil companies WILL like.

The technology may be workable, but isn't that the way it always goes?

Looks like it's going to be diesel for Galena. Cui bono?

--p!

[razzleberry]

8. the benefits of being off-grid ...

people operating their own electrical stations

noise fumes


...................

how wonderful!

[phantom power]

11. The first wave of demand-destruction for fossil?

The sick irony: this will help keep prices lower for those of us in the caboose of this train-wreck. For a while. I wonder how many rounds of demand-destruction before the "western world's" number comes up?

[HamdenRice]

12. In a weird way, there's a lot of good news in this story

There seems to be two kinds of shortages the story is talking about. One kind of shortage is caused by war, mismanagement or deterioration of the power grid. That is the case in Nigeria or Congo.

But the other kind of shortage is caused by surging demand, which is linked to strong economic growth. That seems to be the case in Ghana, Zambia, Mozambique and South Africa.

That's good news because if these countries build power plants for industry, this will also make power available to consumers. That's good for the environment because presently, many African households use firewood and coal for heating and cooking. Although power plants contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, they are more efficient than open fires, so when electricity use replaces cooking fires there is a net decrease in air pollution and greenhouse gas emission. I have vivid recollections of traveling in South African townships in the winter and seeing coal smoke so thick and noxious from tens of thousands of coal stoves that it was like driving through impenetrable fog. Sometimes the visibility was really just ten or twenty feet.

So if this surge in demand leads to increasing supply, that would be a good thing.

[RestoreGore]

14. Solar for Africa

http://www.solarforafrica.com/

[NNadir]

15. What planet do you live on?

Oh wait. I already know...

You live on a planet where it is possible to confuse the per capita income of Burundi with the per capita income of the people living in the Maine Solar House.

http://www.finfacts.ie/biz10/globalworldincomepercapita.htm

A picture of the Maine Solar House like this one has nothing to whether Maine produces enough solar energy to fuel the television crews flocking to the Maine solar house to film the solar future:

http://www.solarhouse.com/index2.htm

The sort of link that you provide shows an appalling level of cluelessness.

The per capita power consumption of Africa (assuming population of 700 million) is 76 watts. That couldn't power a single CNN camera.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table62.xls

(You would, of course, need to know how to do something called calculations to use this spreadsheet, and I do in fact recognize that you can't join antinuclear cults if you can do simple mathematical operations. Here is how you do it, if you can get someone to help with how a calculator or a spreadsheet works: You multiply a billion kilowatt-hours by 3.6 X 10¹⁵ to get joules - joules being the unit of something called energy. The answer is 1.69 exajoules. Then you divide that by 365.25 days per sidereal year, and then by 86400 seconds in a day. This gives the total power demand of Africa 53,530 MWe. You divide this by 700 million to get 76 watts.)

The power output of all renewables in Africa is, by contrast, 0.32 watts.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table17.xls

You have no clue, apparently, where the other 75.7 watts come from.

You couldn't care less about energy in Africa.

You couldn't care less about Africa in general.

[jpak]

16. Pathetic

Nuclear power is not an option for sub-Saharan Africa - PV, wind and solar thermal are...and they are becoming increasingly affordable...

http://www.sciencedirect.com/cache/MiamiImageURL/B73D8-4J77J54-T-B/0?wchp=dGLzVlz-zSkWb

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B73D8-4J77J54

In contrast, Nuclear France exploits African uranium resources with little or no benefit to the local populations that have to deal with the legacy of French uranium mining.

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=54130

Planetary Reality...

[Dogmudgeon]

18. Good point. Africa is dealing with a lot of our toxins.

Right now, it is mainly dumping -- and, of course, the misfeasance of companies like Areva. That's why I support popular control of nuclear energy -- and all basic resources, especially energy production.

Stop dumping in Africa - UN

The United Nations has called for policies to protect African nations from unregulated imports of electronic wastes (e-waste) that release heavy metals and chemicals.

This call comes after the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) announced that over 50 million metric tons of electronic e-waste are produced globally, much of which finds its way to the African continent as charitable donations.

...

Often left to rot in expansive dumping grounds, electronic waste may contain traces of the toxins cadmium, mercury and lead, which can contaminate water supplies, wreak havoc on once fertile lands and contain carcinogenic elements.

Most of it is shipped to the poor world, mainly Africa, under a "refurbished" banner and end up in junkyards where the goods rot and release lead, canadium, mercury and other deadly compounds that pollute the environment.

...

Africa will be developing its semiconductor manufacturing industry at a time when the production of photovoltaic devices shifts to thin-film cadmium-tellurium technologies, and demand increases exponentially from demand for energy. The potential exists for unparalleled toxic waste disasters and possible biochemical terrorism.

Africa -- indeed, many parts of the world -- will need strong environmental protection laws to control radiological and toxic materials alike, and soon.

I wonder what exposure the people who live near the mines are getting. It is so tough to find accurate numbers in the press.

--p!