A heads up on the tropics next week...

[jpak]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=90&a=2http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=90&a=2

[saltpoint]

1. "And it's a hard rain's gonna fall..."

So far it's been a quiet summertime weatherwise down that way.

But late August and September have a way of taking folks by surprise.

Here's hopin' that everyone will be ok if there's a landstrike. Maybe slip over to the store and get some flashlight batteries and beer and a tub of crayons for the younguns.

[jpak]

2. What the computer models say (or don't say...)

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=744&tstamp=200708

<snip>

1) A strong trough of low pressure is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. at that time, and this trough may deflect 90L northwards so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands, and then recurves harmlessly out to sea.

2) In keeping with the steering pattern we've observed since late July, the trough is expected to rapidly move onward, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. If the trough is not strong enough to recurve 90L out to sea, the storm will be forced to the west once more and eventually hit the East Coast of the U.S. This is the solution of last night's ECMWF model.

3) 90L will be far enough south and next weekend's trough will be weak enough that 90L will plow through the Caribbean, and not be deflected north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm would eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the solution preferred by this morning's GFS model.

4) 90L will never develop, or will never become more than a weak tropical storm, due to unfavorable wind shear, dry air, or other factors. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model.

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