Amazing Letter From UK Petroleum Engineer To James Kunstler -Horrifying & Fascinating

[hatrack]

Dear Mr Kunstler,
As someone who works in the UK oil industry, I thought you might be interested in a view of how prepared the UK is for possible (!) future oil shortages.I have just finished a stint as an engineer on the Forties pipeline terminal. Prior to that position I had spent some 30 years working in various parts of the oil and nuclear sectors as a chemical/process engineer.

The career outlined above has enabled me to gain an acute insight of how the UK oil industry is preparing for the (dim) future. Essentially the oil industry is abandoning the UK. BP has either sold-off or closed all its UK refineries ( the last one to go was their Grangemouth refinery) and now only retains the Forties & Sullom Voe interests. Shell is planning to swap over to Middle-east crude around 2011 at its single remaining UK refinery and is busy selling off most of its European refineries. Any questions as to whether any Middle-east crude will be available to the UK in 2011 are studiously ignored in Shell. The general attitude is one of, 'Since we will need the oil, it will be available'. All of the above points to the oil companies foreseeing a pretty bleak future for their UK and European refining operations.

Within BP, the message from senior management is that their Forties terminal will still be in operation 20 years from now. What they fail to mention, even to their own employees is just how little oil and gas will be coming out of the North sea then. This is quite weird given that North Sea production dropped another 10% last year, despite Buzzard crude coming ashore. The value of that oil will certainly sustain the future of the terminal, they just might not be able to send the petrol tankers out too far. Quite cute really.

EDIT

In terms of politics, the Labour party evidently regard discussions about oil depletion as near treason, whilst the Tory party is still proud of the way they defeated the miners. Neither party is exactly in the right frame of mind to restart the nuclear industry or open up new coal mines. Perhaps the worst aspect of the UK shitstorm in preparation, is the way the Labour party is allowing and even encouraging supermarkets to destroy farming in the UK. (Farmers generally hate the Labour party as being a bunch of clueless idiots - quite perceptive really). Agricultural production has dropped disastrously in recent years, with thousands of farmers being forced into bankruptcy by the monopolies enjoyed by the likes of Tesco (big and nasty) and Sainsbury (smaller and nasty). At least the USA still has a huge amount of good land available. In the UK, we are packed in like sardines in terms of population density, which spells disaster when the oil gets short.

Regards,
(Anonymous)

EDIT/END

http://www.kunstler.com/Grunt_UK_oil.html

[GliderGuider]

1. North Sea: gone. Cantarell: gone. Burgan: gone. Ghawar: going.

Hurricane Peak Oil is making landfall, and nobody's even got their windows boarded up yet. But never fear, we've got a jug of Corn Ethanol and some Wind Turbines. We'll be just fine. Right?

[hunter]

2. This refinery weirdness is world wide...

It doesn't make sense to build new refineries if it's clear they'll never pay for themselves because oil supplies cannnot be assured.

You even look at a nation like Iran, where people can't understand why the nation doesn't have the refining capacity to produce motor fuels for their own domestic use, and maybe it's because they've figured out that oil will soon be too expensive to support an automobile based economy.

Nobody wants to talk about it, or even ask the questions, because the answers are just too damned ugly.

[razzleberry]

13. nobody is stupid enough to give Iran money

for a refinery.
nobody justs gives money away.

Iran doesn't pay for a new refinery,
because Iran's finances are essentially hand to mouth.

without oil, Iran would look like Somalia.

[hunter]

14. I wonder what the U.S. would look like without oil?

I've been to some bad, bad neighborhoods in the U.S., both urban and rural, and much more of it would probably look like those.

Iran is an industrial economy. They could have oil refineries if they wanted them. Apparently they have other priorities -- enriching uranium, for example...

Nobody "gives money away," they make it, usually it's debt for something tangible, but in the case of the U.S. we simply create a lot of it out of thin air as needed, and hopefully dispose of enough of it that inflation isn't an overwhelming problem.

There's some evidence, about as solid as any coming out of our own corrupt government, that Iran creates U.S. dollars out of thin air too, a lot of it in the form of $100 counterfeits, which is supposedly one of the many reasons we don't like them.

[razzleberry]

18. Iran has a tenth century economy

(previous post of mine, 'oil', should be understood
as 'the revenue from pumping crude oil')

without essentially free oil and gasoline,
Iran's economy would be nothing.

as far as the US, which imports 75% oil,
the US could easily go on an oil diet of one-fourth.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[razzleberry]

23. anybody can live off the dole

Iran has to do nothing except open
the oil tap, and money comes out

at the same time, they would appear
to not be able to just maintain
Shah era machinery.

Iran exports oil and rugs.
the Iranian car industry,
clones of the Puegot 304

[hunter]

31. All yer oil belong to US!!!

Stuped forners, especially Iran and Venazuela.

:eyes: :sarcasm: :eyes:

You know, we've already slit our own wrists in Iraq and Afghanistan and are slowly bleeding out in the bath tub. Might as well hurry things along and go for our jugular too.

"If you never give up, you can't possibly lose."

USA! USA! USA!

[hunter]

20. Yoiks. Tehran looks to be in much better shape than a lot of American Cities.

[razzleberry]

24. how many of those cars would still be on the road ...

if Iranians paid world price for gasoline?

would the fare for a taxi ride in Iran,
even cover the gas at $2 a gallon?

[Warren Stupidity]

27. Why would they do that?

Every other major oil producer returns some of the profits in the form of fuel subsidies to its people.

[Warren Stupidity]

26. Nah that look just like London circa 950 ce.

And the Paris Metro was built in 875.

"The country’s major manufactured products are petrochemicals (w/a fertilizer plant in Shiraz), steel (w/mills in Esfahan and Khuzestan), and copper products. Other important manufactures include automobiles (with production crossing the 1 million mark in 2005), <16> electric appliances (television sets, refrigerators, washing machines, and other consumer items), telecommunications equipment, cement, industrial machinery (Iran has the largest operational stock of industrial robots in West Asia) <17>, paper, rubber products, processed foods (including refined sugar and vegetable oil), carpets, leather products and pharmaceuticals. Currently, 55 pharmaceutical companies in Iran produce more than 96 per cent (quantitatively) of medicines on the market worth $1.2 billion annually.<18><19>"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Iran

Of course the Chinese were building over one million cars anually back in the Tang dynasty.

[skids]

15. Maybe they think there will be a "flex fuel vehicle"...

...that runs directly on crude :sarcasm:

(boy on second thought what a redneck wet dream.)

[hunter]

16. Once upon a time UPS was considering such a vehicle...

...delivery vans that would run on very minimally refined oil.

[depakid]

3. Regarding food security

Perhaps the worst aspect of the UK shitstorm in preparation, is the way the Labour party is allowing and even encouraging supermarkets to destroy farming in the UK. (Farmers generally hate the Labour party as being a bunch of clueless idiots - quite perceptive really). Agricultural production has dropped disastrously in recent years, with thousands of farmers being forced into bankruptcy by the monopolies enjoyed by the likes of Tesco (big and nasty) and Sainsbury (smaller and nasty). At least the USA still has a huge amount of good land available. In the UK, we are packed in like sardines in terms of population density, which spells disaster when the oil gets short.

Food prices in the UK are already astronomical by American or even Canadian standards. I shudder to think how my friends are going to get by in the coming decade.

[NMDemDist2]

4. it will be warmer and the Brits like to garden

you just pull up the poseys and privets and plant some wheat would be my suggestion

I bought an acre last year and am slowly reclaiming it from the alkaloid desert soil with extensive composting of my kitchen trash and my neighbor's goats

next year I'll have enough in production to do about 1/4 of my needs and will be adding chickens next spring.

canning equipment is on my Xmas list.....

[depakid]

5. Warmer and wetter

There were some pretty shocking floods in England this year- and that may portend what's to come:

http://www.livescience.com/environment/070724_britain_floods.html

Yeah, you can now grow Olive trees in parts of the UK, but all those people living in row houses don't have much room to grow food. I reckon maybe they could have some chooks, though. LOL.

(laughing to assuage the worry).

[NMDemDist2]

6. sorry, what's a 'chook'?

you'd be amazed how much food you can grow in a small area

check out Square Foot Gardening

http://www.squarefootgardening.com/

[Terry in Austin]

7. chook

Brit/Aussie word for "chicken"

[kestrel91316]

8. Try adding some finely crushed charcoal to that soil, too -

a la Terra Preta. (not the kind with lighter fluid in it, lol)

http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/about

[John Q. Citizen]

17. If the gulf stream shuts down though, it will be much colder.

[amandabeech]

9. More likely to be veggies and potatoes in a garden.

Veggies thrive on attention and don't need much to harvest or prepare for eating.

You can't plant potatoes in the same spot year after year, but you can rotate them. Lots of calories in a small amount of garden, really.

[The Doctor.]

10. Legumes, legumes, legumes...

Good protein sources.

[amandabeech]

12. Yes, they are excellent protein sources and are complete if combined with grains, for example.

However, I haven't seen them in a home garden. They do very well in fields, and can be planted and harvested by. Of course, anything that can be done by machine can be done by hand, if need be, or with the help of a draft animal like a horse or ox.

Many legumes, like beans, leave precious nitrogen in the soil. That's why soybeans are planted in rotation with corn, which needs lots of nitrogen. In nothern places, I've seen navy or white beans rotated with sugar beets and one or two other crops.

In home gardens, I've mostly seen vegetables that can be eaten fresh, canned, frozen, dried, or held in cold storage in the basement.

[The Doctor.]

21. These chats really tell us something.

People are taking this seriously.

[amandabeech]

29. Absolutely.

The word is getting out.

I expect more veggie garden activity next spring, as well as some agitation in home owners' associations that prohibit vegetable gardening, clotheslines and solar water heaters.

[PaulaFarrell]

28. I don't think that's quite true

Restaurant prices are much higher and so is meat and a few things like bananas. But staples aren't a lot different as far as I can tell and lots of fruit and veg is actually much cheaper - and much much better quality

[snappyturtle]

11. Scary in my book. n/t

[Viva_La_Revolution]

22. My youngest son and I have decided we need to find a farm and

learn to live off the grid. scary shit coming, imho.

[cutlassmama]

25. I know many people who have similar thinking.

Living "off the grid" also includes no internet. Although now, with all their monitoring of it, maybe that's not a bad idea either. Building a solar power house with green energy, growing your own food, and using either horses or bio-fuels for transportation. It can and is being done. We Americans have gotten spoiled over the years and because of our couch potato lifestyle we have become overweight and complacent. This is the time to start making changes...BEFORE the shit hits the fan and we HAVE to do it in a hurry.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

30. Okay, off the grid except for internet...

I haven't figured that part out yet. :P

Seriously, it's such a wealth of knowledge, I don't know if I could live without it anymore. :scared: I guess when they take it down I'll have to go thru detox :(