Growing Global Problem Of Wheat Production - Telegraph UK

[hatrack]

EDIT

Yesterday India, the second biggest consumer of wheat, waded into the global market to try to buy 50pc more of the grain than suppliers were offering. Last year, the subcontinent swung dramatically from exporting surplus wheat to importing it. Elsewhere, Russia said it was considering curbs on exports to keep a lid on prices at home. Australia, the third-biggest exporter of wheat, warned that its output this year might be 18pc less than a previous government estimate. A second year of drought means Aussie farmers will again miss out on sky-high farm-gate prices.

Wheat hit a new record last week in Chicago, topping $8 (£3.97) a bushel. It has risen by 54pc in three months and no one is prepared to stand in the way of the agricultural bull. "Until immediate supply concerns are fixed, there's no reason why we should stop at the moment," said one trader.

EDIT

If the demand side looks stretched, the supply picture is not much brighter. According to Diapason, most good-quality agricultural land is already in production. What's worse, about 35pc of that land has been seriously damaged by the intensive agriculture practised since the Second World War. Humus, the fertile part of soil, takes up to 500 years to regenerate, too long for an impatient world. Perhaps 30pc of all agricultural land could be unusable within 15 years, it has been estimated.

That means that the "green revolution" of the 1970s and 1980s, which saw yields soar, is over. Between 1970 and 2000 the world's deserts expanded by 160m hectares - an area about equal in size to seven Great Britains. The area of wheat and barley cultivated around the world has been in decline for 25 years. With stocks of key commodities heading for generational lows, there is no longer any slack in the system and prices look certain to rise further.

EDIT

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/05/ccwheat105.xml

[villager]

1. "More meat requires a lot more grain because it takes 7kg of feedstock to produce 1kg of beef"

Eventually, meat-intensiveness of Western -- especially American (Style) --diets will have to yield to reality....

[enid602]

3. China

Also, the Chinese love beef. As their incomes soar, so does their beef consumption.

[NickB79]

4. And pork, they will riot over high pork prices

The average Chinese citizen's meat intake has soared over the past decade. My friend just got back from China visiting family, and she took pictures of some of their meals, and there is meat in everything now.

[GliderGuider]

2. This is a crucially important story.

"Perhaps 30pc of all agricultural land could be unusable within 15 years..."

If that line doesn't make your blood run cold, nothing will.

I'm working up a new model of population decline over the rest of the century, factoring in a drop in global carrying capacity. The estimate I'm using is a 30% drop by the end of the century. I never thought I'd come off looking like a wild-eyed optimist.

[Nihil]

7. ... only to people who can think.

> "Perhaps 30pc of all agricultural land could be unusable within 15 years..."
>
> If that line doesn't make your blood run cold, nothing will.

It will just be dismissed by the selfish profit-grabbers as
"anti-business liberal hysteria" (or some such crap).
Unfortunately, as the majority of people are incapable of thinking
for themselves, they will believe it and only start to wake up
when they run out of money for food.

K & R

[razzleberry]

5. 14 cents a pound, is a problem??

please enlighten me.

how much wheat, is need to supply
daily calories, for one person?

[GliderGuider]

6. Say you made $1 a day, like a billion other people on this planet

So you spend 30 cents on a kilo of wheat (provided you can get it at the farmgate cost, if not it may be more like 50 cents). That's not so bad. Now you have to grind it (5 cents), mix it with water and yeast and a bit of salt (another 5 cents), then bake it. Don't forget to pay for the fuel for the baking (10 cents) and depreciation on the oven (another 5 cents). What do you know: 30+5+5+10+5 = 55 cents. Over half your day's money for two loaves of bread. Oh, you paid retail for your raw wheat? Well then it's 75 cents. Three quarters of your income for two loaves and no fishes.

Yes, 14 cents a pound is a problem. Not to you, maybe, but to the half of the people on this planet who live on less than $2.00 a day it's a huge fucking problem.