Food, oil, ethanol and climate chaos in China

[GliderGuider]

A stunning article: Low grain harvest, rising food prices and China’s ethanol plan

Last week, flipping through China Daily, an English-language daily here in China I noticed a story “Autumn Grain Harvest Under Severe Threat”. In northern China, a drought has hit about 11.5 million hectares (27 million acres) of arable land, according to the Office of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

In southern China flood waters have submerged about 9.7 million hectares (21.5 million acres) putting the total submerged and parched dry land at one-sixth of the country's 120 million-hectares (288 million acres) of arable land.

The consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 5.6% in July 2007, the highest in ten years, with meat (especially pork rising 43% in one year), poultry, eggs and grains leading the index. The following month, in August, China declared a moratorium on the construction of most ethanol plants. Chinese officials recognized that producing corn-based ethanol was linked to rapidly rising food prices.

Obviously ethanol production is a very important part of China’s energy strategy, but rising food costs and a billion and a half people watching their food prices double in the last two years, a lot of unhappy words have been spoken to the point that energy consumption has collided with food production in a time of natural disasters. It seems the Chinese course of action is to curb exports of gasoline, keep it in the country to offset lost ethanol production.

This set of events only shows the true irreplaceable value of crude oil. Even in countries and regions rich in two out of three fossil fuels, there is no substitute for crude oil as the lifeblood of an economy. Chinese road transportation networks use a combination of compressed natural gas (CNG), electric vehicles, as well as ethanol-blended gasoline - far more diverse methods and on a much larger scale than North America - and this country still can’t survive with outlarge amounts of crude oil. If what we see unraveling here as a litmus test for future reliance on substances other than crude oil to power our transportation networks, the effects of peak oil and depleting oil supplies worldwide will be far more damaging than most people expect. It seems there is no “magic bullet” for our world’s energy problems; even a combination of “magic bullets” isn’t enough. Right here, right now staring you in the face, the vulnerability of ethanol production is all too obvious.

Whew!

[hogwyld]

1. What's going to happen

when the masses can't afford to eat???

[GliderGuider]

2. Same as always. First they riot, then they die.

:nuke: