Comic Relief - Deutsche Bank Predicted Oil @ $24/bbl By 2010

[hatrack]

EDIT

In its latest Oil Market Report, released on Wednesday this week, the IEA reduced its global oil product demand forecast to 85.9 million b/d in 2007 (+1.7% over 2006) and 88 million b/d in 2008 (+2.4%). In the meantime, world oil supply fell by 430,000 b/d to 84.6 million b/d in August and the IEA said project delays and extended field outages presented risks to 2008's supply growth.

"The prospect of $100 dollars a barrel oil is very real - and the downside to the oil price is limited indeed," said Moneyweek in an August article. Expected to hit $100 a barrel by the start of next year, the oil price seems to be heading towards what Goldman Sachs sector analyst Arjun Murti believes is a super-spike.

In December 2006 he said that his $105 a barrel estimate may even be conservative if the peak oil theory is right and world supplies are running out. "The belief that the world's oil supply is close to an irreversible drop is no longer on the fringes of the market," he said.

EDIT

The higher prices have already ensured that oil majors have consistently beat analysts expectations. This lead to a re-rating of the sector - and a nice stream of profits for investors. Somehow it seems hard to believe that just three years ago Deutsche Bank analysts were forecasting a 2010 oil price of $24 a barrel. What were they thinking?

EDIT/END

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=5020649

[shain from kane]

1. After we switch to alternative fuels, oil will decrease in price to the point that they will be

giving it away at thr Oil Museum as souvenirs. You can get your little handful of coal at the Coal Museum now. The Deutsche Bank analysts are right about the price, wrong about the year. After all, we're addicted to oil.

[phantom power]

2. I have a feeling...

that any survivors of peak oil and climate change might react to the idea of souvenir coal or oil in the same way that Europeans might react to the idea of selling souvenir ashes from Dachau.

[shain from kane]

4. Reminds me of the Albert Einstein quote ---

"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

I'm afraid that we have seen the crown of creation, and it is all downhill from here. In biology class in high school, we were given the example of fruitflies in a jar allowed to reproduce until their world was detroyed by their own waste and pollution.

[David__77]

3. Macroeconomists need to be good geostrategists as well.

The interplay betwen politics and economics is crucial. Whether it's the general policy environment among the elites, or wars of aggression abroad, these things need to be fully evaluated and incorporated into economic analyses.

[EVDebs]

5. Richard Heinberg's "Powerdown" project...a way out

http://www.richardheinberg.com/projects/powerdown

also Amory Lovin's Winning The Oil End Game

http://www.oilendgame.com