USDA - US 2007/08 Carryover Wheat Stocks Lowest Since 1973/74 ; World Carryover Lowest In 30 Years

[hatrack]

WHEAT: U.S. 2007/08 wheat ending stocks are projected at 362 million bushels, down 42 million bushels from last
month reflecting lower imports and increased use. If realized, this year's carryout would be the lowest since
1973/74. Imports are lowered 15 million bushels as production for Canada is lowered. Feed and residual use is
projected 10 million bushels lower as higher prices limit feeding and tight supplies draw lower quality wheat into
milling. Food use is raised 10 million bushels in line with revisions to 2006/07 based on the latest mill grind estimates
from the U.S. Bureau of Census. Exports are projected 25 million bushels higher as a tighter world supply situation
boosts prospects for U.S. wheat sales. The wheat season-average farm price is projected at $5.50 to $6.10 per
bushel, up 40 cents on each end of the range from last month. The projected range is well above the 1995/96
record price of $4.55 per bushel.

Global 2007/08 wheat production is projected 4.2 million tons lower as reduced output in Australia, Canada, and EU-
27 more than offset higher output in FSU-12. Production for Australia is lowered 2 million tons based on early crop
stress from dryness during August and early September. Production for Canada is lowered 1.2 million tons based on
official government estimates that reflect significant yield reductions as a result of widespread summer heat and
dryness. EU-27 output is reduced 3.1 million tons as preliminary government estimates indicate sharply lower
output, particularly for France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Persistent and heavy rains damaged ripened
wheat and cut yields throughout northern Europe. FSU-12 production is raised 2.2 million tons based on harvest
results that indicate better-than-expected yields for winter wheat in Ukraine as harvest weather was favorably dry.
Higher expected output for Russia reflects increased winter and spring wheat area. Spring wheat crop prospects
remain good for Russia with excellent soil moisture conditions at seeding and generally supportive growing
season weather during July and August. FSU-12 production is also raised on increases for Belarus and
Uzbekistan.

World wheat imports and exports for 2007/08 are both lowered 1.8 million tons this month. Exports are reduced
1.5 million tons for Australia and 1.0 million tons each for Canada and EU-27 as production is lowered in all three
countries. Partly offsetting are increases of 1.0 million tons for Russia and 0.7 million tons for the United States. World
wheat feeding is lowered 1.5 million tons this month reflecting tighter supplies and higher prices. EU-27 wheat
feeding is cut 1.1 million tons. Lower global production is only partly offset by lower consumption leaving world ending
stocks projected down 2.4 million tons from last month. At 112.4 million tons, 2007/08 world stocks would be the
lowest in 30 years.

EDIT

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

[Dead_Parrot]

1. Look on the brigh side...

At least Mike Gravel won't be able to complain about Americans being fat and stupid for much longer. :)

[amandabeech]

2. Let's build more houses and shopping centers on farmland!

Yeah! More houses, more people, less farmland! That's the ticket for the U.S!

This must be the most short-sighted country on the planet.