Guardian UK: How climate change will affect the world

[marmar]

How climate change will affect the world
David Adam The Guardian Wednesday September 19 2007



The effects of climate change will be felt sooner than scientists realised and the world must learn to live with the effects, experts said yesterday.

Martin Parry, a climate scientist with the Met Office, said destructive changes in temperature, rainfall and agriculture were now forecast to occur several decades earlier than thought. He said vulnerable people such as the old and poor would be the worst affected, and that world leaders had not yet accepted their countries would have to adapt to the likely consequences.

Speaking at a meeting to launch the full report on the impacts of global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Professor Parry, co-chairman of the IPCC working group that wrote the report, said: "We are all used to talking about these impacts coming in the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren. Now we know that it's us."

He added politicians had wasted a decade by focusing only on ways to cut emissions, and had only recently woken up to the need to adapt. "Mitigation has got all the attention, but we cannot mitigate out of this problem. We now have a choice between a future with a damaged world or a severely damaged world."

The international response to the problem has failed to grasp that serious consequences such as reduced crop yields and water shortages are now inevitable, he said. Countries such as Britain need to focus on helping nations in the developing world cope with the predicted impacts, by helping them to introduce irrigation and water management technology, drought resistant crops and new building techniques.

Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, said: "Wheat production in India is already in decline, for no other reason than climate change. Everyone thought we didn't have to worry about Indian agriculture for several decades. Now we know it's being affected now." There are signs a similar shift is under way in China, he added. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/19/climatechange

[GliderGuider]

1. Finally, somebody with a bit of clout is saying it.

Climate Chaos and Peak Oil are the grooms of the Four Horsemen. They are standing on our front porch, saddles in hand. It's about time somebody noticed them and said something.

[Gregorian]

2. The longer we wait, and the more people there are on the planet, the worse it'll be.

And nobody is changing their habits. I'm watching. Higher gas prices didn't do it. People are totally unaware.

People will only change when they can see the evidence. And even then many won't change.

My prediction is that we'll slowly destroy the planet until the population decreases.


And I have to add that I am appalled by even the people on this forum who think a "Prius" is going to be the solution. I have posted before on this. And it appears that one needs to be a manufacturing engineer in order to grasp the meaning. But essentially a car is a car in terms of windows, body parts, bearings, gears, tires, infrastructure... It's hardly even a noticeable difference from the viewpoint of the planet. We've bred ourselves into a corner. Now no one can do anything that has a carbon dioxide impact. Multiplicity.

[unblock]

3. it's about time to stop the finger pointing

i mean, it's all very interesting to say that humans did or did not cause this mess, or to what extent humans contributed to it.

but at the end of the day, the ice is melting, the shorelines decreasing, the temperatures are rising, and the weather is getting more severe. who cares who's name is on the tornado? quit arguing and get in the cellar!

let's look forward and DEAL WITH WHAT WE ARE FACING rather than point fingers and/or be defensive.

[Chulanowa]

4. It "matters" because if people don't have to take the blame...

Then they don't have to take the responsibility. That's an aspect of conservative mindsets - "Ain't my job"

[unblock]

5. i agree, but there's time for that later.

if someone is injured, healing them is the top priority. finding the bastard whodunit is important as well, but secondary.

[Nihil]

8. Your analogy is incomplete

> if someone is injured, healing them is the top priority.
> finding the bastard whodunit is important as well, but secondary.

Not if said bastard is still blundering around with all his like-minded
friends, blasting away with his repeating shotgun at any civilian in
the area. Under those conditions, attempting to heal one victim whilst
ignoring the cause is not only totally pointless but somewhat suicidal
to boot.

[unblock]

10. analogies are inherently incomplete :)

i agree your addition is an important and relevant one. well done, i might add -- too few people know how to work with analogies if they can even follow them at all.

i suppose the response would then be that "scene safety" is needed to heal the victims, and so someone does need to get the guy to stop shooting. it may be a fine point in the context of the analogy, but the point is that this is still a forward-looking action -- the point is to get the bastard to stop shooting now and in the future, having nothing to do with the compelling prima facia evidence that he was the cause of the medical emergency at hand.

if the emphasis of climate politics is all about "who caused this", then the polluters will only be defensive and they will continue to stymie solutions to save their own side of the lawsuits. but if the emphasis is on "what do we do about it", then this gives them a way to do the right thing going forward without having to plead guilty to having caused the whole mess in the first place.


my goal is to get polluters to reason that humans can affect the environment but that there enough other factors so they can figure that they didn't cause it. let them think something like, the earth used to be able to handle greenhouse gases just fine, but damned mother nature and her mega-cycles, not any more.

[Nihil]

11. True enough :-)

> analogies are inherently incomplete

I appreciated your analogy but think we just have two different
opinions on the polluters:

> ... the polluters will only be defensive and they will continue to stymie
> solutions to save their own side of the lawsuits. but if the emphasis
> is on "what do we do about it", then this gives them a way to do the
> right thing going forward without having to plead guilty to having
> caused the whole mess in the first place.

I view the polluters as having no conscience whatsoever, as having powerful
enough lawyers to not only continue delaying actions but actively attacking
the environmentalists, as caring about nothing other than their profits
and ways to maximise same.

I just think that softening the attack will let them get away with more
rather than encouraging them to do the right thing. Still, there's more
than one way to skin a cat and, at this stage, I think we need to try a
lot of different tactics rather than relying on a single one.

:hi:

[GliderGuider]

12. The polluters also know they have the support of TPTB

In some cases that will even obviate the need for them to hire lawyers, because opposition can be blocked by political means before the it gets to the point of lawsuits. Of course they have lawyers on staff anyway, but I think most polluters prefer less visible ways of winning.

This makes a variety of strong, loud, consistent attacks even more essential. The deck has been rather thoroughly stacked against us.

[progressoid]

6. When the shit hits the fan, people will know who is to blame,

[Nihil]

7. No chance.

When the shit hits the fan the majority of pig ignorant people will simply
blame whoever the papers, the TV and the politicians TELL them to blame.

That's why they haven't done anything to cut back, that's why they haven't
demanded change over the last few decades, that's why they will support
resource wars and shout down the protests of the intelligent section of
the population ... because they are no longer homo sapiens but simply
homo moronis and homo consumeris (not forgetting the largest constituent
group: homo too-fucking-stupid-to-live-without-destroying-everything).

[fenriswolf]

9. tin foil hat time

OK so the NWO wants to bring the world under a gov rule right? also the only way to keep earth inhabitable will be to dramatically decrease the population, humanity already on that path is aided by the NWO to impead environmental legislation. Also while this is happening to consolodate power into a nationless entity all the more easier to grab up the remains of crumbleing power centers and nations.

"i get alot of time to think up crazy things"