NHC - "Environment Becoming Favorable" For Strenghtening As Low-Pressure System Hits Eastern GOM

[hatrack]

Again, it may fizzle out, but this bears watching.

EDIT

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 29N82W
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC...THE NW BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER
TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/201038.shtml?

[hatrack]

1. Update - `12:00 UTC

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N84W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
GENERALLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-87W. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY
OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE
SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS OF MOSTLY IN THE
15-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF N OF 23N E OF 89W. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO A POSITION ABOUT 150 NM S OF PENSACOLA BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

EDIT

[Systematic Chaos]

2. Some models have it going right for New Orleans.

It shouldn't be more than a depression by then, but after Humberto who can say? :(