Senior Goddard Scientist: Arctic Sea Ice Trend "Appears Now To Be In An Accelerated Mode" - AFP

[hatrack]

Melting Arctic sea ice has shrunk to a 29-year low, significantly below the minimum set in 2005, according to preliminary figures from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, part of the University of Colorado at Boulder. NASA scientists, who have been observing the declining Arctic sea ice cover since the earliest measurements in 1979, are working to understand this sudden speed-up of sea ice decline and what it means for the future of Earth's northern polar region.

"The decline in the amount of thick ice that survives the summer melt season this year is quite remarkable," said Josefino C. Comiso, senior scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. "The extent of this 'perennial' sea ice and the area it covers are both nearly 38 percent lower than average. Compared to the record low in 2005, the extent and area are 24 percent and nearly 26 percent lower this year, respectively."

"From what we know of how Arctic sea ice behaves after nearly 30 years of continuous satellite observations, this kind of drop in sea ice usually takes more than three years to happen. The rapid trend of the perennial ice previously reported in 2002 appears now to be in an accelerated mode," Comiso observed.

Because Arctic ice cover varies so much year to year, it can be dangerous to look at any one year and draw too much of a conclusion from it," said Waleed Abdalati, head of Goddard's Cryospheric Sciences Branch. "But this year, the amount of ice is so far below that of previous years that it really is cause for concern. The trend in decreasing ice cover seems to be getting stronger and stronger as time goes on."

EDIT

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Remarkable_Drop_In_Arctic_Sea_Ice_Raises_Questions_999.html

[kestrel91316]

1. They are finally using the "A" word. It's about f---ing time.

[XemaSab]

6. What's the A word?

Apocalypse? :shrug:

[hatrack]

8. I think it might be something else . . ..

"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:evilgrin:

[XemaSab]

11. "I come from the land of the ice and snow...!"

Good song. :headbang:

[hatrack]

12. DUUUUUUUUUUUUUDE!!! Perfect!!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[GliderGuider]

2. I just got out of a lecture by a scientist from the Canadian Ice Service

Dr. John Falkingham been doing Arctic sea ice studies for 30 years. During his 45 minute talk today he used the word "stunning" four times, and "collapse" half a dozen times or more. He said outright that the world has hit a tipping point in the Arctic.

He showed most of the pics we've been looking at this summer, the AMSR-E and NSIDC graphics and animations. Then he showed us an animation done at U of Washington of sea ice motion and age based on the data from ice buoys over the summer. It clearly shows the effect of the Beaufort Gyre, along with the shrinking coverage, but what blew my mind was that it showed the precipitous decline in the amount of multi-year ice. There is very little of that left now, meaning that the rebuild of the ice cap will be very slow. In fact he said, "We've become aware of all these positive feedbacks that are at work in the Arctic, but none of us know of a single negative feedback that might reverse the situation." He said the sea surface temperatures of the flow coming in through the Bering Strait showed a +4C anomaly this summer, and nobody knows what caused that.

I work for the Canadian Coast Guard, and a couple of our icebreakers are up there right now for IPY research. They are seeing so little ice that they are running out of fuel. There's no ice to tie up to so they can perform their science missions, so they need to keep their engines running 24/7.

Falkingham also said that he was a climate change skeptic up until a few years ago. Now he is totally convinced that it's anthropogenic, and furthermore he thinks it's irreversible. He said the events of the last two weeks have had a profound effect on his outlook for the future of the Arctic.

He closed the lecture with this image on his last Powerpoint slide:



It was a stunning talk.

[phantom power]

3. Heh. "Turn that smile upside down!"

[hatrack]

5. +4 Celsius?!? Holy FUCK.

Well, at least it won't be boring!

[bananas]

9. "doing Arctic sea ice studies for 30 years...climate change skeptic up until a few years ago"

"Dr. John Falkingham been doing Arctic sea ice studies for 30 years."
"Falkingham also said that he was a climate change skeptic up until a few years ago."

[GliderGuider]

10. Yes, he didn't think the changes he was seeing were anthropogenic.

He also didn't say exactly how many "a few years" was. His main job was charting sea ice and predicting its movements - he wasn't a climatologist. He said his group just fell into the Arctic climatology role recently because nobody else was doing it, and they had all the data.

[phantom power]

4. And by the way, that might be Understatement Of The Year.

"Thelma, our falling trend appears now to be in an accelerated mode."

[XemaSab]

7. Lot of other things in this world are exponential...

(PS I really like your avatar. :) )