James Hansen: World 'Hitting A Tipping Point We Have Been Warning About For The Last Few Years"

[hatrack]

OSLO- A record melt of Arctic summer sea ice this month may be a sign that global warming is reaching a critical trigger point that could accelerate the northern thaw, some scientists say. "The reason so much (of the Arctic ice) went suddenly is that it is hitting a tipping point that we have been warning about for the past few years," James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told Reuters.

The Arctic summer sea ice shrank by more than 20 percent below the previous 2005 record low in mid-September to 4.13 million sq km (1.6 million sq miles), according to a 30-year satellite record. It has now frozen out to 4.2 million sq km. The idea of climate tipping points -- like a see-saw that suddenly flips over when enough weight gets onto one side -- is controversial because it is little understood and dismissed by some as scaremongering about runaway effects. The polar thaw may herald a self-sustaining acceleration that could threaten indigenous peoples and creatures such as polar bears -- as Arctic sea ice shrinks, the darker ocean soaks up ever more heat than reflective snow and ice.

EDIT

"All models seem to underestimate the speed at which the ice is melting," said Anders Levermann, a Potsdam professor. "I do not believe that this is alarmist... not all tipping points are irreversible," he said. And societies can weigh up remote risks, such as planes crashing or nuclear meltdowns.

Hansen said he is seeking more study of causes of the melt, widely blamed on greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels but perhaps slightly stoked by soot from forest fires or industries in Russia and China. Ice darkened by soot melts faster. "It is a very good lesson, because the ice sheets (on Greenland and Antarctica) have their own tipping points, somewhat harder to get started but far more dangerous for humanity around the globe," he said.

EDIT

http://www.enn.com/climate/article/23459

[jgraz]

1. Anybody else think that this makes the religious crazies happy?

Inhofe, et al have gotta be thinking that JEEZUS is just about ready to come back.

[hatrack]

2. Nah . . . the production values just aren't there

The skies splitting open, Pro Wrestling Jesus descending bathed in golden rays, Whores of Babylon, Four Horsemen . . . THAT'S what the fundies want.

Instead, they'll get random droughts and floods, expensive white bread and long lines at the gas pump - VERY non-Revelatory.

:evilgrin:

[phantom power]

3. Climate change -- it's not even a good show.

[XemaSab]

6. More of the bongo circle than the rock concert

n/t

[XemaSab]

5. Hey, a flood is non-revalatory

until it's YOUR HOUSE. :P

[Mabus]

9. Right now there's one advocating the rapture will happen in November

http://rapturewatch.proboards38.com/index.cgi?board=rapture&action=display&thread=1188545633

Otherwise you can keep track of their happiness level at The Rapture Watch forum : http://rapturewatch.proboards38.com/index.cgi

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. Re: Anybody else think that this makes the religious crazies happy?

Not particularly, no...

Some see anything as a sign of fulfilled prophesy. Others are look for something much more dramatic.

... Immediately after the suffering of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light; the stars will fall from heaven, and the powers of heaven will be shaken. ...

[kestrel91316]

4. Anybody else thinking we may wish it had only been as bad as

depicted in The Day After Tomorrow?????

[Mabus]

8. I'll admit it

and I think about the frozen mammoth with the buttercups.

[bananas]

7. World map of tipping points

From the article in the OP:
In Germany, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says Arctic sea ice has "already tipped."
Among potential "tipping elements" that are still stable, it lists on its Web site a melt of Siberian permafrost, a slowdown of the Gulf Stream and disruptions to the Indian monsoon.

Here's the map on their website:

Potential Anthropogenic Tipping Elements in the Earth System
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/infodesk/tipping-points


tipped already in limbo still stable