Is this what the world's coming to? (Nature Magazine - Climate Change)

[bananas]

Free article at nature.com

"For the most part, we're talking about things that we already know how to do, things we already know we should do, things that we've already committed to do, it's just that we don't do them", says Barnett.


http://www.nature.com/climate/2007/0710/full/climate.2007.56.html

Feature

Nature Reports Climate Change
doi:10.1038/climate.2007.56

Is this what the world's coming to?

Amanda Leigh Haag

With climate change placing increasing pressure on environmental resources, it is now being viewed as a threat to national security. Amanda Leigh Haag reports.

History is littered with lessons from once-budding civilizations that crashed from their peak of prosperity. From the Anasazi of the southwestern United States to the Mayans of Mesoamerica1 and the ancient dynasties of eastern China2, environmental change has sounded the death knell throughout time for once-thriving civilizations already stressed by factors including high population growth, overexploitation of resources and excessive reliance on external trade. In many cases, severe drought or extreme cold has been enough to push societies to the brink of civil unrest, mass migration and warfare.

Is this what the world's coming to?

Environmental change is believed to have been a factor in the collapse of the Mayan civilisation of MesoAmerica.

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Although it is impossible to predict social and political consequences based on a broad range of potential climate-change outcomes, a few experts are now beginning to imagine and examine some of the worst-case scenarios. Fuerth, who spent 30 years as a foreign-affairs analyst, including eight years as Vice President Al Gore's national-security advisor in the White House, has studied and projected possible social implications of severe climate change over a 30-year period, based on the potential for 'nonlinear' climate change and 'tipping points' such as the abrupt release of methane from thawing Arctic tundra. Emphasizing that such exercises should never be interpreted as forecasts, but as scenarios designed to promote rigorous thinking, he says that nonlinear environmental change could give rise to nonlinear societal change. One outcome of increasing pressure on borders and natural resources could be a kind of international class warfare, says Fuerth, as wealthier nations shore up their borders against waves of environmental refugees. "Whenever fear takes over or is helped along by political leadership, it can result in very severe measures aimed against some set of people who are deemed a threat," Fuerth says. For instance, Fuerth believes that tensions could become high even between partners such as the US and Canada owing to clashes over fishing rights and waterway navigation.

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With serious impacts of climate change appearing increasingly imminent, a handful of nations are now taking a closer look at the role of the military in preparing for national-security threats. In April, the CNA Corporation, a non-profit US think tank released a report titled National Security and the Threat of Climate Change11, which was overseen by a decorated military advisory panel and concluded that "projected climate change will seriously exacerbate already marginal living standards in many Asian, African and Middle Eastern nations, causing widespread political instability and the likelihood of failed states". General Anthony C. Zinni, former commander-in-chief of US Central Command stated, "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today...or we will pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives."

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So far, no comprehensive cost estimates exist for the type of global-scale military preparedness that would be needed under severe climate-change scenarios. Yet it appears that, irrespective of conflict and the potential for national-security threats, the goals of assisting vulnerable nations and at-risk regions in the face of climate change are synonymous with the need to achieve global sustainable development. Citing East Timor in southeast Asia as an example, Barnett says "what you would do to reduce vulnerability and adapt to climate change is what you would do to provide sustainable development and improve the lives of people anyway". With the majority of the population having no access to electricity, clean drinking water, shelter or proper food standards, he notes that many of these basic services could be fulfilled through the commitment made by wealthy countries under the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development in 1992. Developed countries vowed long ago to giving 0.7% of their gross domestic product to aid developing countries, but actual contributions fall far short of that, with donations from both the US and Australia hovering around 0.2%, for instance. "For the most part, we're talking about things that we already know how to do, things we already know we should do, things that we've already committed to do, it's just that we don't do them", says Barnett.

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[tom_paine]

1. Excellent article.