HSBC Projects Saudi Oil Exports As Down 12% From 2006 - Aramco Claims Quotas Capping Output

[hatrack]

RIYADH: Saudi oil exports this year may fall as much as 12 per cent from last year's record to $165 billion as the world's largest oil exporter restricts production as part of OPEC quotas, an HSBC Holdings Plc affiliate said.

Average production may fall as much as 6 percent to 8.65 million barrels per day, while the average price of Saudi crude could be $59 per barrel, close to last year's record of $60.50, Riyadh-based SABB bank said in a report on the Saudi economy.

HSBC owns 40 percent of SABB, formerly known as Saudi British Bank.

EDIT

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/International__Business/Saudi_oil_exports_may_fall_to_165_bn_Bank/articleshow/2427956.cms

[bullimiami]

1. those are the friends that bush was going to jawbone into opening their spickets.

instead he conspires with them to make sure oil prices stay high.

[GliderGuider]

2. What do you want them to do?

Everything I've read screams that Saudi Arabia is pumping every last barrel it can. The tap is open all the way.

"Ye cannae change the laws of physics," but you can sure as hell try to hide the fact that you've bumped into them. The Saudis are really good at that.

[bullimiami]

4. did you read that article? it says the saudis are holding production due to opec caps.

not that they are pumping as fast as they can.

i dont think any of us know the state of saudi or anyone elses oil reserves. we just keep hearing conflicting experts contradict one another.

[GliderGuider]

5. Of course that's what they're saying. "It's not the fields, it's the quotas! Honest!"

I call bullshit on all Saudi press releases. Take a look at the analysis of Saudi oil production by Stuart Staniford et al over at The Oil Drum, starting with the article A Nosedive Toward the Desert. The Saudis are lying through their teeth.

[phantom power]

6. The question is, what is OPEC's reason for those caps?

OPEC is playing a dangerous game, keeping prices so high. There is a pretty short list of reasons good enough for them to play that game. In fact, I think that the list has a length of three.

1) They can't pump it out any faster. In other words, OPEC has peaked.

2) They know that they're going to peak in the near future, and they're trying to break the news to the global oil junky as easily as possible.

3) They know that they're going to peak, and they are attempting to "cash out." In other words, logic very similar to the logic being applied by the refinery industry, which is not bothering to invest in any new refineries.

As you can see, (2) and (3) are just corollaries to (1).

[GliderGuider]

7. (1) is af course the answer.

The quotas are doing one thing only at this point. They have been set to match the actual production capability of the memebers. Why? This makes it look as though production is being artificially constrained, and keeps the world from thinking "Peak Oil is here" and panicking. The Saudis at this point don't give a damn what the oil price is. Their biggest fear is that a recognition of Peak Oil would cause a global economic collapse along with a revolution at home, and they are doing everything in their power to keep that recognition from breaking through.

It's working, too. Look at the number of people even on this board who are convinced that high oil prices are a result of Bushco/Saudi manipulation...

[AndyA]

3. Bush's famous last words:

George Bush:

"This is an administration that is hoping the issue goes away, the vice president seems to forget who's been in office for seven years. This is an administration that has been in charge, and the price of gasoline has risen steadily since they've been in office."

Asked what he would do as president to address the price at the pump, Bush said he would confer with oil-producing allies and ask them to pump more crude. "I would use the capital my administration will earn with the Kuwaitis or the Saudis, to convince them to open up the spigot," Bush said. "That's where we will get immediate relief."

Why don't you take your own advice, Bush? Gas prices have risen substantially more during your term in office, why not take your own advice?

HYPOCRIT! LIAR!