THE soaring cost of artificial fertiliser and a shortage of supplies

[phantom power]

Problems have been blamed on many factors – the closure of phosphate mines in Russia; growing demand from biofuel farmers and use of former set-aside land; the rising price of oil; even cynical stockpiling by fertiliser companies. Advice from suppliers is to order now because it will be distributed on a first come-first served basis. This comes just as the price of lamb shows signs of recovery.

Industry experts say the shortage will last at least two years, which may make more farmers consider converting to organic production, with the added bonus of a premium – although on reduced quantity.

But a continued shortage will have serious implications for conventional farming, particularly in a world of climate change where governments, led by the United States, seem to think that biofuel from crops could provide an answer.

After huge increases in feed, livestock farmers will be well advised to look to less intensive systems and get maximum value from pasture.

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/news/wales-news/2008/02/05/the-soaring-cost-of-artificial-fertiliser-and-a-shortage-of-supplies-are-the-latest-problems-to-hit-the-farming-industry-91466-20434737/

[Sanity Claws]

1. Cow and chicken manure used to be common fertilizer

before this current reliance on petrochemicals. Cow and chicken manure is now treated as waste due to the current farm practices where livestock is hoarded into small pens and not given room to graze. These increases in chemical prices will, I hope, push farmers back to the old-fashioned sustainable way of farming.

[phantom power]

2. Let's all pray that sustainable farming is sustainable for 6.5 billion people.

[amandabeech]

5. Animal manure may help, but it doesn't contain enough nitrogen to

produce huge crops of corn.

Animal manures to contain plenty of phosphorus and potassium, though. Too much phosphorus will run off and help cause algae blooms in the water. What smart farmers do is test the manure and the soil and apply as much manure as necessary to meet the phosphorus needs of the plant.

The farmer also tests for nitrogen, then "tops up" the soil with some petrochemical nitrogen. Only a few crops would require extra potassium, like alfalfa and potatoes.

A problem with using manure from feedlots is that it is high in salt. Salt ruins fields.

Another problem is that CAFOs produce a manure slurry that must be knifed or squirted into the ground, and to my knowledge, cannot be applied when the soil is very wet, as it can be in the spring. The slurry application also requires heavy equipment, and as it is heavy itself, is expensive to transport very far. Previously, manure was composted with straw or sawdust, and contained much less water.

Additionally, nitrogen in ammonia form evaporates more easily from slurry than it does from composted manure in which the nitrogen bonds to the carbonaceous straw or sawdust.

[NickB79]

8. Here in Minnesota they've opened up a 50 MW "renewable energy" plant

Guess what it burns?

Turkey crap.

Pretty smart, huh?

[Tashca]

11. It is being used

Manure has been used for years here in Iowa. In recent years it is being incorporated into large farms with the utilization of satellite technology. For many years it's over use in certain areas has created a problem with phosphorous runoff and it's creation of algae blooms.
The issue now is.....with this three fold price increase of input commercial fertilizers.....the price of manure is now going through the roof. The logistics of moving large amounts of manure for commercial crop production is also being hampered by high energy prices....Manure actually has a commodity value now.

The increase in chemical prices most definitely will not push farmers back to sustainable ways. In fact I fear it will do the opposite. This will quickly increase the land shift to large farm operation who do not need the large margin to survive. They run on a volume of acres...not as reliant on large profits per acre as the smaller farmer.

[GliderGuider]

3. 85% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizer

is the cost of the natural gas feedstock.

Here's a projection of USDA data on fertilizer prices:



That's a bit unnerving, what with Peak Gas coming on.

[phantom power]

4. what could go wrong?

[silverweb]

6. New business opportunity...

Commerical worm farms.

[GliderGuider]

7. That's how Cuba dealt with their loss of oil-based fertilizer in 1989

[silverweb]

10. I read about that.

And I read about Scotts (Miracle-Gro) suing a couple of Princeton students who started a "worm poop" fertilizer business called _Terracycle_ (and basically getting thrown out of court...LOL). I was delighted to follow the company, and see how they've grown and expanded.

In the meantime, I'ze gots my own l'il worm bin thing goin' -- but I'd love to expand operations.... :D

[NickB79]

9. Going back to old-fashioned crop rotations will be a blessing and a curse

My dad is a small family farmer with 120 acres of land, and he still rotates crops. Corn in one field for 1-2 years, then soybeans for 1-2 years, then alfalfa for 2-3 years with an oats cover crop the first year to shelter the alfalfa seedlings. Between the soybeans and alfalfa fixing nitrogen, and the addition of cattle and hog manure from the barns, he doesn't break the bank on fertilizer costs. An added benefit is that alfalfa roots can go down 5-6 feet, bringing up trace minerals from the subsoil and breaking up any hardpan in the soil.

If fertilizer prices go up enough to force farmers to start rotating crops again and farm more organically, the benefits to the soil ecosystem will be immense. We might actually begin to rebuild topsoil that's been lost for the past century or more.

The trade-off is that farmers like my dad can't produce nearly as much grain as modern cash cropping farms like the 2000-acre behemoths you see in Iowa or Nebraska. At a time when global grain production per capita is falling, that additional loss of production could very well doom hundreds of millions of people to starvation across the globe.