sure is a bushel-o-weather we're havin

[phantom power]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/severewinterforecast/usdopplerradar_large.html

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. You know...

It's astounding to me.

Just the other day, a co-worker was egging me on, asking me if I thought we were getting our share of the effects of "Global Warming." I said, "Well, we're not having the kind of droughts that they're getting in the South West, or the South East; we're getting about the same amount of precipitation as we used to, but it's coming in more violent storms, not the gentle soaking rains farmers like to see, but gully washers. We're not seeing snow storms we used to see in the Winter, we're seeing rain."

He said that he had bought a little place by the river. The people who sold it to him said it was flooded in 2006, but that "that was a 100 year flood." I said, "No, that was either a 350 year or a 500 year flood, depending on exactly where we're talking about. The previous year's flood was a 250 year flood, and the flood the year before that was a '100 year flood.' Now, what're the odds of that string, do you suppose?" He said, "Let's see... is that a sum? or a product?" I said, "Invert and multiply." and he said, "That's a pretty big number..."


Then he gave me an argument that there was an inverse relationship between the economy and ecology. (Good for the environment :: bad for the economy.) I just about lost it.


People love to complain about how cold it is. I remind them that it's February. We've got lawns greening up and what (by all rights) should be a big ol' Nor'easter is instead bringing us flood warnings; in February!

[phantom power]

2. Very few people get a glimpse of the big picture.

I don't know how many regular readers of E/E there are, but it's certainly a vanishingly small fraction of the overall population. Unless you spend time on a forum like E/E, you aren't likely to have any intuition for how weird things are getting.

How many people are aware of the rate at which the oceans are absorbing CO2, or what the means? How many people are aware of what happened to the Arctic this year, or what the implications are for positive feedback loops? How many people are aware of what's going on in Australia, or South America? Or what's happening to the price of NG, and how that's connected to the price of milk that they've been complaining about?

We spend a lot of time brooding about what it all means here in E/E, but there really isn't anybody out there putting this stuff into a coherent picture for the other 99.99% of the people going about their daily business. I still see the talking heads on TV laughing about it. When they bother to bring it up at all. It's all just a bunch of dots to them, and nobody is connecting them.

[XemaSab]

3. That's why "climate change" is a better term.

"Global warming" implies a uniform and predictable warming trend everywhere, when what we're seeing is really going to be much less predictable.

[postulater]

4. 24 hours of snow, twelve inches so far

Now the wind starts and the drifting.

Bus service is suspended and the airport is about to close.

In Milwaukee.

Ooops, all flights cancelled now out of Mitchell with hundreds stranded in the airport, no hotels available.

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. Ah... Winter!

In my experience, the conditions you describe are what I consider "normal" for this time of year, and this sort of weather pattern. I'd look for a foot or more of snow. Instead, the ground is bare and saturated with rainwater. The stream is roaring, and the river's getting too big for its banks.

[postulater]

6. I also consider it normal.

Normal about 40 years ago.

We haven't had much winter like this in a lot of years.