(I have not included the referenced images. Follow the link to see them.)
http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/20080303_ColdWeather.pdfCold Weather
I usually start my climate presentations with a chart showing maps of the surface temperature anomalies in the last four months. My most recent presentation (at Illinois Wesleyan) is available at
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/illwesleyan_20080219.ppt. The referenced chart is shown below.
Figure 1. Global distributions of surface temperature anomalies of the last four months (GISS analysis).
The maps are used to show that, even averaged over a month, local weather anomalies (dynamical fluctuations, more-or-less independent of forced long-term climate change) are much larger than the global mean temperature change of recent decades.1 Weather fluctuations or ‘noise’ have a noticeable effect even on monthly-mean global-mean temperature, especially in Northern Hemisphere winter. Weather has little effect on global-mean temperature averaged over several months or more. The primary cause of variations on time scales from a few months to a few years is ocean dynamics, especially the Southern Oscillation (El Nino – La Nina cycle), although an occasional large volcano can have a cooling effect that lasts a few years. The 10-11 year cycle of solar irradiance has a just barely detectable effect on global temperature, no more than about 0.1°C, much less noticeable than El Nino/La Nina fluctuations.
The past year (2007) witnessed a transition from a weak El Nino to a strong La Nina (the latter is perhaps beginning to moderate already, as the ocean waters near Peru are beginning to warm). January 2007 was the warmest January in the period of instrumental data in the GISS analysis, while, as shown in Figure 1, October 2007 was # 5 warmest, November 2007 was #8 warmest, December 2007 was #8 warmest, and January 2008 was #40 warmest. Undoubtedly, the cooling trend through the year was due to the strengthening La Nina, and the unusual coolness in January was aided by a winter weather
fluctuation.
The monthly fluctuations of global or near-global temperature, as well as the trend over recent decades can be seen in Figure 2 for the GISS surface temperature analysis as well as the lower tropospheric data of UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) and RSS (Remote Sensing Systems). The reason to show these is to expose the recent nonsense that has appeared in the blogosphere, to the effect that recent cooling has wiped out global warming of the past century, and the Earth may be headed into an ice age. On the contrary, these misleaders have foolishly (or devilishly) fixated on a natural fluctuation that will soon disappear.
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