USDA - American Soybean Stocks Will Fall To Less Than 3-Week Supply Before 2008 Harvest - Reuters

[hatrack]

WASHINGTON - The US soybean stockpile will shrink to less than a three-week supply before this fall's harvest, and voracious demand around the world is also thinning US wheat supply, the government said on Tuesday.

Grain and soy futures prices rose on the Chicago Board of Trade after the US Department of Agriculture released the crop report. Corn, wheat and soybeans are forecast to sell for record-high prices at the farm gate this marketing year.

USDA projected a soybean stockpile of 140 million bushels, (3.8 million tonnes), which would be the smallest season-ending figure in four years for the versatile oilseed used for food and livestock feed. The USDA raised its forecast for soybean exports by 20 million bushels to 1.025 billion bushels, "reflecting strong sales, especially to China," for the current marketing year. It pegged wheat exports at 1.225 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels.

The wheat carry-out, estimated at 242 million bushels (6.6 million tonnes), would be the smallest in six decades, USDA said. Chicago traders had expected a soy figure of 153 million bushels and wheat at 263 million bushels.

EDIT

http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/47458/story.htm

[phantom power]

1. Phase change when reserves drop to zero. 2009?

[hatrack]

2. Unless things happen "faster than expected"

But that could NEVER happen, 'cuz we're 'Muricans!

[tridim]

3. And yet growing hemp is still illegal.

Idiots.

[GliderGuider]

4. For the last four years I've been tracking Peak Oil and Climate Change

And now it turns out the big hammers will be food security and the financial system. I wish the world would just settle on one pair of catastrophes and leave it at that.

[kestrel91316]

5. One could argue that the food insecurity and economic problems

are in large part due to the unaddressed problems of PO and CC/GW.

[GliderGuider]

6. I think the economic meltdown is a standalone

The way I see it, the econoclysm is a purely human problem brought on by human institutions, though I'd be willing to consider evidence to the contrary. I think its main influence will be in the the other direction, it will prevent us from coping with PO/CC/food problems because of lack of capital.

Food, PO and CC are definitely linked. I was aware of the linkage before, but I misunderestimated the faster-than-expectedness of CC and how powerful the impact would be on crop yields. I was waiting for my bungalow in Ottawa to have an ocean beach, and didn't figure out the real significance of rainfall shifts until just the last few months.

[amandabeech]

7. Would either Clinton or Obama restrict exports?

I can't seem to find anything on this subject.

McCain's advisors would risk food riots, I'm sure.

And no one would dare risk eliminating ethanol subsidies. The corn belt states are just too important to control of the Senate and include Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, all swing states from time to time.

Maybe its time to plant some potatoes and yams, and buy marginal farmland in the northeast for potato production.

[NickB79]

8. But, there will be enough for ethanol and biodiesel, right?

We have to keep our priorities straight.