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(I wrote this a while back)
Javaman (1000+ posts) Mon Nov-26-07 08:00 PM Original message The oil curve... Edited on Mon Nov-26-07 08:58 PM by Javaman I have been reading many an article today regarding the Peaking of Oil. Many of them offer all sorts of solutions from the mild to the extreme.
All have to do with conservation, rationing, lowering speed limits, etc.
The other bend is that technology is going to save us all. I have heard all sorts of rationalization from "we are smart, we will just come up with something" to "nanotechnology is going to save us all!"
Oy.
Some good ideas, some odd ideas, and some straight out of Sci-Fi ideas, but sad to say, they would have been more helpful if they were acted upon 30 years ago. However, today, to enact even the mildest form of any of these ideas would still taken an enormous amount of fossil fuel to get them up and going.
Say for example, we build at solar panel manufacturing plant using the latest nanotechnology to squeeze as much energy as possible out of the Sun's rays.
What sort of power are you going to use to construct the building? (not even going to go into the hours spend at the design firm under fossil fuel powered lights). How does the construction equipment operate? How do the workers get to the location? How are the materials manufactured?
That last one is the biggie, because right now all solar panels are made, constructed and supplied energy to make via fossil fuels.
Now one can extrapolate this concept to any of the "alternative" energy devices. Look at windmills. I don't think there are artisans actively carving blades for them. Wave power. Pistons are filled hydraulic fluid. And nanotechnology of any sort requires machines powered by fossils, oiled by fossil fuels, designed via fossil fuels, etc.
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As of 2004 we were importing 55% of our oil. Taken in real world terms, that's roughly 11 million barrels of oil a day. No doubt, it's more today.
Another segment of the population, just wants to cut off all foreign imports of oil. Think about that for a moment.
Over 50% of all things operating on oil or oil products in this nation would vanish. The right wing would now crow on and on that the tree huggers are keeping the US from drilling off Florida, in Alaska, etc. Fine, you want to drill there go right ahead, but I can tell you this, in the grand scheme of things, you aren't going to find much in real world terms. If we were the sole user of that oil it would all run out in a couple of years at the current rate if usage. And because we don't have any limits or restrictions on our use, it would vanish quickly as society grows, even if it grew at a slower than normal pace.
And even if we did drill in those areas, it would be years before they are on line and producing enough in volume to make any sort of mark.
So what do we do? Very good question. What, indeed, do we need to do...
First we need to develop means to smelt metals without the use of fossil fuels or wood. The same goes for various replacements for fossil fuel based lubricants. These two things will keep industry going or at least to a point where we can potentially change over to a non-fossil fuel economy. I offer no magic solution here because, I don't have one, but if we wanted to continue with some level, even if it's really low, of "normalcy", this beyond all others needs to be done.
Also keep in mind that we will all have to adjust to living with less. A lot less. The days of rampant consumerism is going to end. Just a fact. If there ever was going to be a major societal hang over, it will be from that.
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So what is my point? We all talk about doing our part to end global warming, to use "recycle, reused" things. If we are serious, I mean really serious and I don't mean sipping our latte while perusing DU in an overly heated house in the middle of winter, while shredding our documents to recycle. I mean, brass tacks, no bullshit, let's fix this now, serious. We turn off the computers, we wear sweaters, we don't drive at all costs, we change our jobs so we work closer to home, we grow our own food, we save rain water, we eat local, we ride bikes, etc.
Then, we as a nation commit the lions share of our fossil fuel imports to research and development for a renovation of our infrastructure. High on the list, the transportation and manufacturing industry.
We take the hard pill. The one that we all know in the back of our minds only gets bigger each and every day we put it off. If we take it now, it's only the size of a Volkswagen, if we wait 5 years from now, it's the size of a semi. If we wait 10 years from now, it's an ocean liner. Get the picture.
This isn't fun and games, no happy festival of earth mothers telling us to grow our veggies. This is the real deal. Everyone is effected whether they like it or not. Because, no matter what we do, no matter how we dream, no matter how much we deny it, it's still going to happen.
And to make matters worse, China and India are now growing into energy sucking, pollution belching giants, which now, only speeds things up.
So in an essence we are in a race against ourselves.
I hope you have your running shoes on, because the race began 150 years ago and we are still at the starting line.
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