Credit Suisse On That Maybe Not-So-Gigantic-After-All Brazilian Oil Field - Bloomberg

[hatrack]

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's Carioca prospect may have 98 percent less crude than a figure cited by the country's oil agency, Credit Suisse Group said, challenging claims that the field is the biggest-ever discovery outside the Middle East.

Haroldo Lima, director of Brazil's National Oil Agency, sent shares of Petroleo Brasileiro SA and other Carioca stakeholders higher when he said April 14 that the offshore field may hold 33 billion barrels of oil. That figure is ``way off the mark,'' Mark Flannery, a Credit Suisse analyst in New York, said today on a conference call with clients.

An estimate of about 600 million barrels ``sounds reasonable,'' Flannery said, adding that the firm isn't yet giving an official assessment of its own. The estimate cited by Lima was probably intended for the entire subsea geological formation known as Sugar Loaf, which encompasses multiple fields, Credit Suisse said. ``A lot of exploration and delineation is going to need to take place,'' Emerson Leite, a Credit Suisse analyst who's been following Petroleo Brasileiro for a decade, said on the conference call. ``We are very early in the process here.''

Flannery and other Credit Suisse analysts convened today's call in response to Lima's comment after returning from a trip to Brazil. The analysts met with Petroleo Brasileiro executives during their visit. A deposit of 600 million barrels would be comparable to the Tahiti field, discovered by Chevron Corp. in the Gulf of Mexico. At 33 billion barrels, Carioca would be outranked only by Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field and Kuwait's Burgan.

EDIT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBzZ.NHGe6e4&refer=worldwide

[NickB79]

1. Wow, I thought they'd revise down, but that's WAY down

I was expecting 10 billion barrels. Wow, 600 million barrels is crumbs compared to the major fields, and doesn't make a dent in the peak oil depletion rates.

[hatrack]

2. This is EXACTLY the kind of hype that surrounded Jack 2 back in 2006

Taking one successful (albeit very expensive) test well, and rapidly extrapolating from that single site to encompass the entire LTGOM formation.

And given the general ignorance of most Americans on most technical, geological and scientific issues, it worked then.

Apparently it still works.

[eppur_se_muova]

3. "98% less"? Why not say ONE FIFTIETH the size?

Us techie types will settle for "nearly two orders of magnitude". :nerd::rofl:

[phantom power]

4. I would propose: "to a first approximation, fucking *zero*"

[madinmaryland]

5. Hmm. That would be close to one brazilianth of what they originally thought.

:rofl:

[robertpaulsen]

6. That's the second source I've seen downgrade the supposed "giant" oil field.

Matthew Shaw, Latin American energy analyst with Edinburgh-based oil consultant Wood Mackenzie, said: "I don't know how he calculates that. It is not credible. This is an unfortunate slip of the tongue by a senior member of the NPA. It is likely to be a fairly modest discovery with a few hundred million barrels in place."

Shaw said the unfortunate comments were symptomatic of the "oil fever" that was sweeping Brazil in the aftermath of recent - and confirmed - world-class discoveries such as Tupi, another field where BG has a stake and which has got between five and eight billion recoverable reserves.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/16/oil.brazil

First Wood Mackenzie, now Credit Suisse. Oh well, nice mirage while it lasted.

[Javaman]

7. wow...really...I'm sooooooooooooooo surprised...

I knew this shit was going to happen. They do this with every "big" oil discover that is made.

"it's gigantic!!! it's going to save the world (except for that nasty pollution part) Brazil is the new OPEC!!! Bow down to Brazil!!!" blah blah blah blah blah blah...

Honestly, are we really surprised???

Pul-eeeaze.