Mexico To Reduce Oil Exports To US By 184,000 Barrels/Day In 2008 - Penn Energy

[hatrack]

LOS ANGELES, Apr. 29 -- Mexico will reduce its crude oil exports to the US by an average of 184,000 b/d throughout 2008, a situation that could continue for 2 years longer, reported a Mexican media outlet.

Citing PMI Comercio Internacional, the Petroleos Mexicanos affiliate in charge of marketing, El Universal newspaper said a reduction in US-bound exports for 2008—and possibly until 2010—was due to Mexico's reduced oil output.

It said the original plan for oil exports in 2008 envisioned some 1.678 million b/d heading to the international market, but the sales volume at the end of the first quarter stood at 1.499 million b/d, or 179,000 b/d less than initially anticipated.

El Universal said the US Energy Information Administration earlier this month predicted a 13.2% shortfall of imports from Mexico during the current fiscal year. According to EIA figures, Mexico exported 1.533 million b/d to the US in 2007.

EDIT

http://www.pennenergy.com/display_article/327259/7/PRARC/none/GenIn/1/Mexico-to-reduce-oil-exports-to-US-in-2008/

[phantom power]

1. And it may continue for another 2 years after those first 2.

Just a guess.

[NickB79]

2. So, the potential output of drilling in ANWR 5 years from now has already been wiped out

By the plummeting output of Mexico.

Surprise!

[lapfog_1]

3. continue for up to two years...

and will decline MORE after that.

There isn't anything on the horizon for Mexico to replace the Cantarell Oil Field and it's been in a decline of 14% year over year for two years already.

http://watthead.blogspot.com/2006/08/mexicos-largest-oil-field-could-be.html

And we aren't going to drill our way out of peak oil. It's here now (or maybe already in our rear view mirror).

[pscot]

4. Sen. Charles 'Chucklehead' Schumer

is up on the Senate floor right now, demanding that W order the Saudis to increase production. Maybe that could work with Mexico too.

[BeFree]

5. In another way it makes sense

America is driving less and consuming less. Given that oil wells throughout the US were capped because of low prices some years ago, and now prices have risen, and those wells have been opened up and are flowing again, we need less oil from Mexico.

It may be that we have been played by the COMING of peak oil.

It will come, yes, but until you can't fill up at the pump, there is no shortage.

[GliderGuider]

6. Those wells have been opened up?

That's not what the EIA says. Here are the monthly crude oil production figures for the USA, in thousands of barrels, from the beginning of 2004 to February of this year. In that time the price of oil has risen from $30/bbl to $110/bbl.

2004 172,680 161,122 173,832 165,795 171,988 161,950 169,188 165,325 151,868 159,851 161,884 167,817
2005 168,679 153,828 173,637 166,674 172,997 163,802 162,444 161,758 126,119 140,553 145,100 154,516
2006 158,283 141,258 156,392 153,849 159,992 154,795 158,151 156,830 151,120 158,288 153,142 160,159
2007 161,072 144,125 160,530 156,546 162,452 154,183 158,711 154,266 146,970 156,188 150,178 157,219
2008 157,893 148,275

[BeFree]

8. EIA link?

If you had an oil well in 2000 that you were getting just $30 a barrel from and you knew bushco was gonna raise that to $100 in a few years, would't you cap that sucker and wait?

Too, people are using less oil. I take it you are? Right?

So, declining use coupled with alternatives now in the system and no shortages, how can one not surmise that we are being played and you are a player?

[GliderGuider]

11. Here:

This table shows US crude oil production back to 1920:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus1m.htm
It clearly shows the production peak in 1971 and the decline since then.

This table shows US oil consumption back to 1981:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mttupus1m.htm
There is no significant decrease in consumption.

This table shows increasing US oil imports since 1991:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wttimus2w.htm

Declining production and stable consumption mean increasing imports. Increasing imports means an increasing exposure to international market forces.

Nobody's playing. This is deadly serious shit.

[BeFree]

13. Thanks

I'll click them later.

But really, haven't you reduced your consumption? And are there not others doing so as well? And big oil has to be seeing that and alternatives coming at their market, increasing every day.

If you were big oil what would you do? Wouldn't you get while the getting's good? And use every trick you could to scare folks into paying the rip-off prices?

Or maybe you don't think we are getting riped-off?

[GliderGuider]

16. My drop in the bucket

The fact that I have reduced my consumption makes not a shred of difference in the face of the hundreds of millions who haven't. We activist types get an inflated impression of our numbers by clustering in self-selected communities of interest. Most of the people in your country and mine don't think there's any problem except gas prices, and they're not reducing their consumption at all. They are marching to the beat of a very different cultural drum than you and I.

No, I don't think "we" are getting ripped off. I think we've hit peak oil and we're seeing the inevitable result of demand out-pacing supply world-wide.

[BeFree]

17. Yeah sure

Just about everyone (100's) I've asked has reduced use.

And that we are getting ripped off.

And we can still get a tankful, so there is no shortage.

But whatever, keep on that glide path, you'll be grounded soon enough.

[phantom power]

18. And good luck with your jawbone.

[GliderGuider]

19. We'll ALL be grounded pretty soon.

The EIA numbers tell a true story. Unfortunately your survey of acquaintances suffers from a small sample size and selection bias. While your results may confirm your worldview, there is a larger picture out there that tells a very different story. Try reading http://www.theoildrum.com for a few days to see what I mean.

Ultimately it doesn't matter which of us is right. The outcome will be the same -- for whatever reason, liquid petroleum fuel will be priced beyond the reach of most of us sooner than we expect.

[hunter]

7. If you can't fill up because you don't have money, does that count?

That's the way it ends, not with an "Out of Gas" sign.

[BeFree]

9. Right

Leading to less and less use of the resource.

But the fact is less oil is being consumed and that has big oil scared. the whole premise has been built on growth and growth is not happening.

I take it you use less oil today than you did last year, right?

[NickB79]

10. How far can gas consumption fall, though?

I think you are over-estimating the elasticity of gas consumption.

[BeFree]

12. Well

I use 30% less energy now than 5 years ago, across the board. Don't tell me that I'm the only one here who has. How 'bout you? With all you know, you've reduced your use too, right?

[NickB79]

14. I've reduced my gas consumption

But my 16-yr old cousin, who never drove before, just got her license. I suspect that the few gallons I save each month will be more than offset by her driving. And as the US (and global) populations continue to grow, more and more oil is being used overall, despite individual attempts to reduce consumption.

[BeFree]

15. And I know someone who died

And better mileage cars are here and coming on strong.

If we all reduced by 50% tomorrow, that would in effect double the days of supply that we have today. And that is the only way we save our society.

And you know big oil knows it.