Unless the ice loss magically levels off

[XemaSab]

we're going to hit zero sometime in mid-August. Mid-August is about when it stopped melting last year.

This time last year the ice was still gently thawing, but so far this year it appears to be in full-on crash mode. Just eyeballing the slope there, it looks like we're been losing ice at a rate of about a million square kilometers a week, or four million square kilometers a month. Most of last summer we were losing ice at about 2.8 million square kilometers a month.

[Orrex]

1. More hearsay

Spare me your evidence and empirical analysis. I'm hitching my horse to the wagon of wishful thinking!



Good grief, that's horrifying.

[Systematic Chaos]

2. For the past 3 days it has sorta kinda leveled off.

There's no way it's going to last though. The Arctic is way too warm.

[Zachstar]

3. I know most of the regained ice is thin ice tho I am holding out hope that we atleast have one more

Year...

The moment the last million of ice vanishes there is going to be panic like no other on earth. And I do not think Bush will do the right steps during the time of panic.

[XemaSab]

4. There's loss of ALL the ice

then there's loss of the ice as a functional part of the ecosystem.

That being said, if this isn't the last year, I think it's going to be the next-to-last year.

[Zachstar]

5. When Santa's house is floating is that not a sign that things are bad?

And the NAVY needs to be double concerned because without much of an Ice cap it becomes FAR easier to detect the boomer Submarines (Such as the Typhoon and Ohio Class)

Losing the Ice Cap is bad for national spirit (How are parents going to explain no ice where Santa supposedly lives?) and bad for national security so I hope we have atleast another year.

[jimlup]

6. This is an abnormal year because of the thin refreeze

The thin layer that was formed this winter is now melting. That is what I suspect is causing the strong falloff slope. I'm guessing that as we proceed the slope will indeed level a little because we'll start encountering thicker layers of the ice sheet. This isn't to dismiss the long term and dire problem, I'm just guessing that since this isn't a 3D measure of the ice volume there is more to the story than what we are seeing right now.

[phantom power]

7. Sure, but that's the point. The total ice volume is dropping rapidly.

In fact, our lack of 3D info actually made the problem seem better than it was (until last year). The total 2D cover was decreasing slowly, but meanwhile the whole pack was thinning. Last year it came home to roost: an abrupt collapse of ice cover, to previously unseen low levels.

[XemaSab]

8. We're not going to get to the thicker parts of the sheet

for a LONG time. That trough there last summer? The stuff under the curve there is the thicker parts of the sheet. All the gain last winter was in thin ice.