Here is some information I out together on another DU thread. I'm responding to a question about how we transition from fossil fuels. I would add to it the tread I just started on EE titled MIT Technology Review... for more specific information about the state of battery technology.
An important point to remember is that our personal transportation vehicle fleet sits idle over 90% of the time, and miles driven are less than 40 each day. See the UDEL website for more information on this crucial plan that makes a transition to renewables, with their increased intermittency, a viable economic possibility.
both V2G and CAES are part of the strategy to minimize the costs of integrating higher levels of intermittent energy into the grid. It already has a great deal of flexibility, but it needs strengthening in many regions and some major investment in upgraded control technology, particularly a mechanism that allows instant pricing of electricity to be available to the consumer. That would be a part of the infrastructure installed in the garage along with the interface for recharging automobiles. This allows people to realize when they are overloading the system on a hot summer day, for example. When the price of the electricity spikes in the afternoon, people will defer purchasing power until a time of less demand.
"...Another good point about both V2G and CAES is that the costs of developing the infrastructure is much lower than had previously thought would be possible for storage on such a spectacular scale. That is most true for V2G where the consumer's transportation purchase will actually pay the largest part of the cost of the system. The price of the rest of the infrastructure in minor compared to the avoided corporate capital outlay.
So what you have that your worries do not incorporate is a technologically and economically viable alternative to a fossil fuel world. When you factor that in along with high reserve to production ratios, increasingly high costs for all carbon fuels, and a coming change in political recognition of the climate change issue - remember Obama has said he will bring Gore on board to manage the response to CC - do you still think we are preparing to drop off a cliff?
I've provided some background below.
The economics of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world
Joseph F. DeCarolis, and David W. Keith
Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
Abstract
The environmental impacts of fossil-fueled electricity drive interest in a cleaner electricity supply. Electricity from wind provides an alternative to conventional generation that could, in principle, be used to achieve deep reductions (>50%) in carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel use. Estimates of the average cost of generation—now roughly —do not address costs arising from the spatial distribution and intermittency of wind. The greenfield analysis presented in this paper provides an economic characterization of a wind system in which long-distance electricity transmission, storage, and gas turbines are used to supplement variable wind power output to meet a time-varying load. We find that, with somewhat optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind turbines, the use of wind to serve 50% of demand adds 1– to the cost of electricity, a cost comparable to that of other large-scale low carbon technologies. Even when wind serves an infinitesimal fraction of demand, its intermittency imposes costs beyond the average cost of delivered wind power. Due to residual CO2 emissions, compressed air storage is surprisingly uncompetitive, and there is a tradeoff between the use of wind site diversity and storage as means of managing intermittency.
Keywords: Wind; Optimization; Carbon
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You can find links to the papers below at
http://www.stanford.edu/~lozej/publications.htmlArcher, C. L. and M. Z. Jacobson, 2007: Supplying baseload power and reducing transmissions requirements by interconnecting wind farms. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 46, 1701-1717.
W. Kempton, C. L. Archer, A. Dhanju, R. W. Garvine, and M. Z. Jacobson, 2007: Large CO2 reductions via offshore wind power matched to inherent storage in energy end-uses.Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02817, doi:10.1029/2006GL028016.
Archer, C. L. and M. Z. Jacobson, 2005: Evaluation of global windpower. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 110, D12110, doi:10.1029/2004JD005462.
V2G:
http://www.udel.edu/V2G /
Good summary of battery technology:
"In search of the perfect battery"
Mar 6th 2008
From The Economist print edition
For CAES look for the project at Iowa Association of Municipal Utilities, and the existing plants in Alabama and Germany; plus read:
Energy Policy 35 (2007) 1474–1492
"Baseload wind energy: modeling the competition between gas turbines
and compressed air energy storage for supplemental generation"
Jeffery B. Greenblatt et al