Tom Whipple writes about the growing oil export crisis

[GliderGuider]

Peak Oil Review -- June 2, 2008

Newly released information shows that declining world exports of crude oil are likely to become a major problem for importing nations well before world oil production goes into a decline. As the world’s largest importer, the US is particularly vulnerable to this phenomenon as exports from at least three major suppliers --Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria-- are dropping.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal ran a story containing a new EIA estimate that the petroleum products exported by the top 15 oil exporters fell by 2.5 percent or 1 million b/d from 2006 to 2007. Some of this reduction is due to depletion of older oil fields, some to political problems and increasing domestic consumption, perhaps a little due to the OPEC cuts of November 2006, and some to lack of sufficient investment to maintain production.

The EIA also reported last week that US crude imports during the first 143 days of 2008 were down by 2.9 percent over 2007 and that petroleum product imports were down by 19.6 percent. The US’s top suppliers in March were Canada (1.7 million b/d), Saudi Arabia (1.5 million b/d), Mexico (1.2 million b/d), Nigeria (1.1 million b/d), Venezuela (0.8 million b/d), and Iraq (0.8 million b/d). As exports to the US from Mexico, Venezuela and probably from Nigeria drop, increased imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia are picking up part of the slack.

This is the single most critical energy issue facing the United States at this time. Even many of the people who are Peak Oil aware don't yet appreciate the magnitude of the threat posed by the possible crash of the international oil export market.

[Dead_Parrot]

1. I am reminded, for some reason...

...about a discussion on E/E a while back about water-oil interactions, and what would happen when Gwahar reached a critical point of water injections. Anyone remember it? and can you link?

If Gwahar goes watery, the whole SA export could vanish while they sort it out - not good.

[GliderGuider]

2. Was it this thread?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=115&topic_id=90788

Has anyone been following the analysis and discussion of the state of the Ghawar field over on The Oil Drum?

For technically minded peak oil wonks it's a mind-bending experience. There's a strong contingent laying down numbers leading to the conclusion that the most prolific part of Ghawar, 'Ain Dar/Shedgum, is about to water out and turn off like a tap because of the effects of water flood and fractional flow (how oil-water mixes flow through porous rock in an oil reservoir). There are a number of opposing opinions, but the math seems to be on the side of the depletionists as far as I can tell.

[Dead_Parrot]

3. Aye, that's the one.

"This will really be something to see." - PP
^
What he said.

0=0

[GliderGuider]

4. Analysis like that

Analysis like that provides an illuminating counterpoint to kristopher's sophistries on Peak Oil.

[Dead_Parrot]

5. Yeah, but he's good for comic relief. In a painful way. nt

[phantom power]

6. One of the spookiest terms I've learned here is "fractional flow curve."

"Canfield ocean" and "carbonic acid" are also on the short list.

Well, I was already familiar with carbonic acid, but never previously had to recontextualize it as an existential threat to the entire ocean ecosystem.

[GliderGuider]

7. That shocked the hell out of me too.

As a refresher for students who were away that day:

In a mixture of almost all oil, the water cannot flow at all. Conversely, once there is almost all water, the oil cannot flow at all (which sets an upper limit on the amount of oil that can ever be recovered by a water flood). In between, there is a changeover in which the proportion of oil flowing to water flowing changes much more rapidly than the changeover of the actual mixing ratio. The curve that describes this is called the fractional flow curve.


(In the above chart, the X axis is the proportion of water flowing in the oil/water mixture.)

When you think about it for a while, you get this image of oil flowing like electricity through a light switch, with a finger poised ready to press...

[pscot]

8. That would be the moving fickle finger of fate

n/t

[Dead_Parrot]

9. I'd go with Canfield Ocean

We managed for several million years without Gwahar, creating stuff like the Mona Lisa, Eine kleine Nachtmusik, the flying buttresses of Notre Dame de Paris, and the Great Silk Road en route: We have not, however, attempted any of these without a biosphere.

I think it might be a problem.