"Global Net Oil Exports Have Declined for Two Years"

[bhikkhu]

"....At first blush the information is alarming, showing a decline of about 1 mb/d in net oil exports in both 2006 and 2007. On closer analysis, however, the chart is less chilling. Here’s why:

1. Over half the decline is from Saudi Arabia. The Saudi’s are swing producers in the world and they claim that they could produce more oil if the markets required it. Some suspect the Saudi’s are unable to produce more but the true facts are unknown. What seems clear is that they do have the capacity to produce a good deal more (1 - 2 mb/d) of heavy sour crude oil on a sustained basis but there is not currently market demand for it due to lack of refining capacity for that type of oil. The Saudi’s are well along the road to constructing substantial new refining capacity, as are both the Chinese and the Indians, all of which will be able to use heavy sour inputs... "

http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/06/02/global-net-oil-exports-have-declined-for-two-years/

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Lots of good information, and a good overview of the Export Land Model explaining accelerated depletion in exports due to rises in domestic consumption...nothing too alarming for those who trust the Saudi's about their real capacity.

This is a better causal explanation of why we are so pinched at the pump than "damn the speculators", and a plausible reason why solutions other than conservation are not readily available.

[Oerdin]

1. Look at the big picture.

The main reason exports have been declining even while production has been increasing is because of strong economic growth in producer countries. The more the economies of Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, etc grow the more domestic demand grows in those economies and the less there is left over to export.

[GliderGuider]

2. Jeffrey Brown

The ELM's major popularizer, thinks that the international export market could be essentially empty of oil within 20 years...

[phantom power]

3. That would be... exciting.