Global Warming Could Release Trillions Of Pounds Of Carbon Annually From East Siberia's Vast Frozen

[phantom power]

Anybody think we'll actually have to wait until 2300 before this starts happening?

ScienceDaily (Jun. 12, 2008) — East Siberia's permafrost contains about 500 Gigatons (1100 trillion pounds) of frozen carbon deposits that are highly susceptible to disturbances as the climate warms.

Called the Yedoma, this permafrost has not undergone much alteration by soil microorganisms since its formation, which took place between 20,000 and 40,000 years ago. To investigate how easily this huge carbon stock could be degassed in future warming scenarios, Khvorostyanov et al. use a model of heat transfer and soil organic matter decomposition in frozen soils and find that specific conditions trigger the irreversible thawing of Yedoma, which is maintained by heat production by soil microbial activity.

Once started, irreversible thawing could release 4.4-6.2 trillion pounds of carbon per year into the atmosphere between the years 2300 and 2400, transforming 74 percent of the initial carbon stock into carbon dioxide and methane.

Further investigations reveal that the faster the planet's surface warms, the sooner fast deep-soil decomposition will start, although the tipping point above which soil carbon starts irreversible mobilization due to permafrost thawing increases slightly with larger external warming rates.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080611154839.htm

[Zachstar]

1. When I saw images of the person igniting a hole in the ice I knew we were in serious trouble.

And no atleast this part is not going to be 2300 its going to be 2020 at this rate.

[Systematic Chaos]

2. And here I thought for sure Xemasab would have been first through the gate on this one.

I think 2020 is about right, myself.... :(

[XemaSab]

7. I was out digging soil pits all day

:shrug:

[kristopher]

8. That prediction stinks as much as the orifice you pulled it from

This paper was published in May 2008. There is no reason to assign your specious speculations and fear-mongering any weight what so ever.

Abstract

East Siberia’s permafrost contains about 500 GtC of frozen highly labile carbon deposits, a so-called Yedoma. Using a permafrost carbon cycle model we analyzed mobilization of this huge carbon stock in a future warming. Conditions necessary to trigger the irreversible Yedoma thawing maintained by deep respiration and methanogenesis are studied. Once started, this process could release 2.0–2.8 GtC yr−1 during years 2300–2400 transforming 75% of initial carbon stock into CO2 and methane. The time when the fast deep-soil decomposition starts is inversely proportional to the warming rate, while the corresponding (critical) temperature anomaly slightly increases at larger warming rates. This second-order effect is due to the deep-soil heat storage caused by external warming, which leads to more homogeneous soil heating when the warming is slower, and so a smaller external warming is needed to thaw the permafrost. The effect of specific microbial heat that accompanies oxic decomposition is of comparable importance to that of the warming rate on the critical temperature anomaly, while it is of minor importance on the time when deep decomposition starts.

Received 14 February 2008; accepted 10 April 2008; published 20 May 2008.

Link to section of paper discussing the measurements, variables in the timeline as related to various assumed rates of temperature increase.
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0810/2008GL033639/

[Systematic Chaos]

9. But it's a nice, sunny, flowery SOLAR orifice!

I shit organic vegan brownies and fart pure essence of jasmine, yet nothing I do pleases the great Kristopher.

:cry:

[kristopher]

10. inappropriate fear is counterproductive

And despair is even worse.

[Kolesar]

3. the journal blurb does not tell me anything I did not know

Save for a date and a weight. yuk

[phantom power]

4. By my calculation, 4e12 pounds is about 23% of human emissions in 2006

that's assuming they means "CO2" when they said "carbon."

[Nihil]

11. A bit worse than that ...

> about 23% of human emissions in 2006
> that's assuming they means "CO2" when they said "carbon."

... as I think your assumption isn't supported by the article:

>> Once started, irreversible thawing could release 4.4-6.2 trillion pounds
>> of carbon per year into the atmosphere between the years 2300 and 2400,
>> transforming 74 percent of the initial carbon stock into carbon dioxide
>> and methane.

(Emphasis mine)

[tom_paine]

5. Calling XemaSab! Calling XemaSab! We need your input.

"Can you say 'faster than expected', children? I knew you could."

[pscot]

6. This is a bit dated

Lehrer had nucular(sic) annihilation in mind. But it's the thought that counts.


When you attend a funeral
It is sad to think that sooner or later
Those you love will do the same for you
And you may have thought it tragic
Not to mention other adjec-
Tives, to think of all the weeping they will do
But don't you worry

No more ashes, no more sackcloth
And an armband made of black cloth
Will someday never more adorn a sleeve
For if the bomb that drops on you
Gets your friends and neighbors too
There'll be nobody left behind to grieve


And we will all go together when we go
What a comforting thought that is to know.
Universal bereavement, an inspiring achievement
Yes, we will all go together when we go

We will all go together when we go
All suffused with an incandescent glow
No one will have the endurance to collect on his insurance
Lloyd's of London will be loaded when they go

Oh we will all fry together when we fry
We'll be french fried potatoes by and by
There will be no more misery when the world is our rotisserie
Yes, we will all fry together when we fry


Down by the old maelstrom
There'll be a storm before the calm



And we will all bake together when we bake
There'll be nobody present at the wake
With complete participation in that grand incineration
Nearly seven billion hunks of well-done steak

Oh we will all char together when we char
And let there be no moaning of the bar
Just sing out a Te Deum when you see that ICBM
And the party will be "come as you are"

Oh we will all burn together when we burn
There'll be no need to stand and wait your turn
When it's time for the fallout
And Saint Peter calls us all out
We'll just drop our agendas and adjourn



And we will all go together when we go
Ev'ry Hottentot and ev'ry Eskimo
When the air becomes uranious, we will all go simultaneous
Yes we all will go together, when we all go together
Yes, we all will go together when we go

.