Mass Exodus from Cars Predicted in US

[tinrobot]

We previously reported on Jeff Rubin of CIBC World Market's prediction of gas costing $7 to $10 per gallon in four years; Now Rubin makes his prediction of its impact.

Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America’s highways in history. By 2012, there should be some 10 million fewer vehicles on American roadways than there are today—a decline that dwarfs all previous adjustments including those during the two OPEC oil shocks.

Rubin notes that over 57 million Americans have access to public transit, and that more and more of them will use it, starting to "act more like Europeans", starting with lower income people.

Our analysis suggests that about half of the number of cars coming off the road in the next four years will be from low income households who have access to public transit. At their current driving habits, filling up the tank will have risen from about 7% of their income to 20%, an increase that will see many start taking the bus.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/06/mass-exodus-from-cars.php

[cornermouse]

1. One little problem.

We aren't Europe. We are not as densely populated and we don't have the transit system. And to be blunt, public transportation isn't going to be all that interested in building a transit system for lower income people. Not a large enough profit margin and that doesn't peacefully coexist with what passes for what is currently considered good business management theory that we're currently stuck in; that is, the big businesses skin the cream off the top and let the little businesses fight over the dregs left in the glass.

[theoldman]

2. Will you please stop using common sense.

Just joking. You have described the exact problems in the area where I live.

[TreasonousBastard]

8. Out here, public transit is almost entirely for...

poor people-- hardly anyone else uses it.

We have commuter trains and buses going into NYC which don't really count in this, but the local transit is all buses. The county is talking about expanding the bus system since some routes are at a breaking point, and there's always talk of local shuttles to get people to train stations and bus stops.

Getting back to Europe, while it's true that they have a great rail infrastructure, they use buses a lot, too-- buses don't require anything more than making a bus to travel on roads that are already built and maintained.

The future of mass transit is not a new and incredibly expensive rail system, but the humble bus.

[cornermouse]

11. You're in New York which pretty much explains why

you can say you have transportation set up. Out here there ain't no such critter.

[TreasonousBastard]

12. Nothing stopping you from buying buses and..

setting up hubs and connections.

It know it's difficult in some really rural areas and may even be impossible to do it sensibly at this point. But, we might be looking at another population movement back into central areas. For the past 50 years or so the car has allowed us to get really spread around, and the truth is that that makes very little social or economic sense.

[cornermouse]

13. (sigh)

1. I do live near a "hub" or a "connection" otherwise known as a small town. It may be smaller than anything you've seen and there may not be any buses running to or from it but it is still a "hub".

2. I'll say it again. What currently passes for economic wisdom isn't going to set up a bus system for the poor and the lower middle class. The people who have enough money to do that aren't interested in small profits; only large profits. They aren't going to get that with gas at $7 a gallon even with a bus and they aren't interested in providing charity. The local and state government is deep deep red and takes that survival of the fittest/pull yourself up by bootstraps that you don't have thing to heart.

3. Just because you don't see any social or economic sense doesn't mean there isn't any.

[AndyTiedye]

3. 57 Million Americans Have Access to Public Transit, That Means Over 240 Million Do Not

Some of those who do not have access to public transport will move into the city,
but in doing so they will displace people who already live there.

Those being forced out obviously have less money than those coming in,
so high gas prices will hurt them even more.

We need a lot more public transportation in this country.

Rebuild our rail system!

[Isee2020]

6. Rail

I think what really needs to be done is the expansion/building of more subway systems. Amtrak really can't compete with the airlines for travel over <insert number here> miles.

[cornermouse]

14. Subway?

:rofl:

[NMDemDist2]

4. i don't think this is a bad thing,

lower income folks tend to drive cars that are more polluting and have less money overall to keep them tuned and running clean.

I know I did for years......

not a bad thing at all to get those old beaters off the roads.

[kristopher]

5. I think it will be just a short term dip in ownership.

Mobility is so ingrained in our lifestyle that it isn't going away over the long term. The EV is a long overdue improvement in efficiency and as mass production of essential components really gears up, the current overuse of highways is going to resume.

[AndyTiedye]

9. Number of Cars Might Actually Go Up

Those who have gas-guzzling SUVs will try to find something more efficient if they can,
but they may not sell the SUV because they wouldn't get much for it, it may not be paid off yet,
and it may still be useful during the snow/mud season or for camping trips, Costco runs, etc.

I think the cars we have are being driven less, and will be driven less still,
but I don't see the average suburban family going from 2-3 cars down to none
and walking 10 miles to the bus stop (especially when the local bus authority is threatening to stop running that bus).

[DemReadingDU]

7. What about small towns?

I grew up in a small town in Indiana. We walked everywhere, as did most of my friends. It was small enough that a lot of parents could walk or bike to work. But back then, usually only the father worked, the mom stayed home. One car to the family. A small community, maybe 10,000 people, with just about everything to support itself - schools, library, drugstores, restaurants, churches, groceries, hospital, doctors, dentists, factories, farmers, retail shops.

I live in a smaller town now, maybe only 4000 people. I've been thinking of buying a bicycle...seems senseless to drive a couple miles to buy milk at the local grocery when I could bike.

Perhaps this community concept will evolve again when people don't have the money to buy gas for their cars.

[hogwyld]

10. It will be a self fulfilling collapse of all transportation

Fewer cars means fewer vehicle registrations, which also means less gas used. This will lead to a catastrophic collapse of tax revenue to maintain our infrastructure such as roads, bridges, etc. This will also mean fewer dollars to subsidized public transportation systems.
There will be a whole lot less money going to federal, state, and local governments, which will then have to severely cut funding for many programs. I am starting to believe we are at the edge of the abyss, and that cracking sound is the edge starting to give way.
In 10 years, I don't know what country we will live in, but it surely won't be the United States anymore. It just pains me to look at everything we, as a nation, have squandered. Our price to pay will be subservience to Chindia, and we will be the worlds newcomers to 3rd world status.

[NickB79]

15. Little problem: many cities are CUTTING public transportation funding

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_public_transit_paradox

"Problem is, the nation doesn't have nearly enough public transportation to handle the new demand. Even more absurdly, right now when it's needed the most, public transportation across the land is being cut back. This is because transit costs are soaring by the same skyrocketing fuel prices that are forcing people out of their cars, at the same time transit revenues are shrinking because most transit systems depend largely on sales taxes, now dwindling as consumer purchases decline in this recession. A survey of the nation's public transit agencies released last Friday showed 21 percent of rail operators now cutting back and 19 percent of bus operators."