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At its most extreme, unchecked global warming would lead to:

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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-26-08 11:50 PM
Original message
Poll question: At its most extreme, unchecked global warming would lead to:
Please add any thoughts you might have or links supporting/refuting the options. (I'm posting this after recently watching "The Day After Tomorrow" with my small fry and we had some interesting discussions about it.)
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CaliforniaPeggy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-26-08 11:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. My dear GPV!
I'm not entirely sure, but I believe that the first option (a Venus-like planet) would be what would happen...

If I'm remembering correctly what I've read...

Whichever happens, the planet would not be habitable for any sort of life, eventually...:scared:
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-26-08 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I think it would be better able to survive an ice age, but I fear the Venus option might
be the more likely of the two... I suppose maybe bacteria could keep on keeping on?
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CaliforniaPeggy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-26-08 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Yup! I think the bacteria and the cockroaches will live on!
What a grand legacy for our lovely blue dot...:cry:
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Maybe the aliens will return Elvis and repeople the earth with clones of him? LOL
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MisterP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
5. the result might be more Triassic than Venusian: the Earth still has enough
algae (regardless of humanity's extermination of the oceans): the Permian had 300% 1950s CO2 levels, whereas the Triassic had 600%--a doubling that killed 90% of species (70% of land vertebrate species)--not properly a "close call" like a 1,000-km asteroid would be, but still horrifying had it all been the cause of one species *ahem* (not to mention bad for the species and individual animals involved)
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 12:24 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. I did wonder if the earth could "bounce back" before hitting the Venus phase. I guess I do wonder
about the role the ocean would play. It would definitely be more acidic and we've done a good job of throwing a few dead zones out there. But since the sea would rise and eat all of our cities and toxic waste and so forth, would all our garbage of that nature damage the ocean to the point of taking even longer to recover?
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tinrobot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 01:06 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. What's fifty thousand years?
That's how long it would take for all the plastic to disintegrate.

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muriel_volestrangler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 06:47 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. The ocean is indeed a key part
On Earth, atmospheric CO2 is absorbed by precipitation- --by rain---and forms a very weak solution of carbonic acid, a very mild form of acid rain. This acid rain falls on surface rocks, many of which contain calcium, and the carbonic acid dissolves a tiny bit of the calcium. Eventually the water, containing both carbonic acid and calcium ions, washes down to the ocean. In our oceans tiny plants and animals, plankton, incorporate the calcium and carbonic acid into shells of calcium carbonate. When the animals die, their calcium carbonate exoskeletons drift to the ocean floor. When enough of these carbonate deposits build up, they form carbonate rocks, such as limestone, which are composed of the skeletons of trillions of dead plankton. In short, the action of water removes CO2 from the atmosphere and puts it into the crust of the Earth. The Earth has roughly the same amount of CO2 as does Venus, but it is nearly all locked up in the crust as carbonate sediments.
...
This is the complete carbon cycle: rainwater removes CO2 from the atmosphere and puts it in the crust, and volcanic action releases CO2 from the crust and puts it back in the atmosphere.

What happens on Venus? Venus has no water! Early in its history Venus may have had water, but it is too close to the Sun to retain it. When water molecules rise high in an atmosphere, ultraviolet radiation split the water molecules into its component gases, oxygen and hydrogen, and the lighter hydrogen molecules escape into space. While Earth's lower atmosphere is about one percent water vapor (although it seems much higher in the humid Louisiana summers), the upper atmosphere, where ultraviolet radiation can penetrate, is very dry: a cold trap, a combination of pressure and temperature, prevents water vapor from rising high in the earth's atmosphere. Venus has a cold trap, too, but because Venus is closer to the Sun its cold trap is much higher in the atmosphere and any Venusian water molecules rise high enough to be broken apart by ultraviolet radiation.

Therefore the carbon cycle is incomplete on Venus: without water, CO2 cannot be removed from the atmosphere. Venus does have volcanoes, however. Radar mappings of Venus by interplanetary probes indicate volcano-like mountains, and there is other evidence for volcanoes as well. The atmosphere of Venus is full of sulfur dioxide and sulfur particulates. Sulfur and sulfur dioxide is highly reactive and cannot remain long in an atmosphere; therefore something (volcanoes) must be regularly replenishing the sulfur. This theory is bolstered by data from interplanetary probes, which have detected large fluctuations in the sulfur content of the Venusian atmosphere, as well as radio signals reminiscent of lightning--and lightning is often found in volcanic plumes.

http://www.phys.lsu.edu/faculty/cjohnson/climate.html


So 'Venusian' probably just can't happen here, whatever we do.
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Duppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 07:23 AM
Response to Original message
9. Both! First we fry, then we freeze.
All my reading on the subject leads to this conclusion.


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truebrit71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. I agree....we'll roast first...the only ice left on the planet will be in GOP cocktail glasses...
...and then we freeze....
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
10. My scenario
We won't hit Venusian temperatures. However...

My scenario involves a rapid warming due to continuing CO2 emissions leading to a sudden release of methane from oceanic and permafrost hydrates, which causes more warming, which results in a sudden collapse of both polar ice caps, which pours huge amounts of fresh water into the polar oceans, which stops the THC. That shutdown leads in turn to to anoxic, sulphidic "Canfield oceans" and the loss of the global equator-to-pole thermal pump. Losing the pump results in a rapid plunge in polar temperatures and a new ice age stretching out over Europe, Asia and North America, but with the added attraction of a toxic atmosphere due to hydrogen sulphide released from the anaerobic bacteria that will populate the oceans. The time frame for the whole cycle could be as little as 200 years, depending on how much CO2 we manage to inject into the atmosphere before our civilization collapses.

Cheerful thoughts for a Friday morning.
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hogwyld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. GG, always the eternal optimist
I might as well just slit my throat now. J/K. On the plus side, in oh, about a billion years, we'll have all those new oil fields ready to go! Of course, you'll be reincarnated just to warn us about peak oil in the year 55789!
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. "Captain, I've just been reading this article on the Inter(stellar)net about Peak Dilithium..."
We'll have to see about that reincarnation business -- it could be fun: "Jeremiah through the ages."
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tom_paine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-27-08 08:12 AM
Response to Original message
11. There's a third option: Permian-style extinction followed by a normalization.
Edited on Fri Jun-27-08 08:13 AM by tom_paine
It doesn't HAVE to be a full-blown runaway Venus-like effect.

If I had to guess based on available data, that is what I would guess.

To put it more folksily: The Earth has dealt with far more than the impacts of our civilization and recovered, there's no reason to suspect it won't eventually recover this time, however many millions of years it takes.
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 08:03 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. True, that is definitely another possibility
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Dead_Parrot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-29-08 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #11
16. What you said - P/Tv2
But this time, it's on widescreen. Yeehaw!
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