CO2 Emissions Will Rise 40% By 2010 Over 1990 Levels, No Matter What

[hatrack]

Carbon dioxide emissions will be almost 40% higher by the end of the decade than they were in 1990 despite growing use of renewable energy, the International Energy Agency said yesterday. It predicted world energy demand will rise by 60% between now and 2030, with two-thirds of the increase coming from developing countries. Although the agency said energy resources will be able to meet demand until 2030 it warned that countries in Europe, Asia and North America will become increasingly reliant on supplies of oil from the Middle East.

"The Earth contains more than enough energy resources to meet demand for many decades to come. The world is not running out of oil just yet," the IEA's executive director Claude Mandil said yesterday. However rising gas and oil prices, the increasing vulnerability of supply routes and ever increasing emissions of climate destablising carbon dioxide are "symptoms of a considerable malaise in the world of energy".

The IEA forecast of increasing dependence on Middle East oil came as Sadad al-Husseini, a former director of the Saudi oil company Aramco, warned that American projections of his country's production capacity were "a dangerous overestimate".

He told Channel 4 news: "Yes the kingdom has huge reserves - 260bn barrels - but they are finite."

EDIT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1336670,00.html

[swag]

1. We are so fucked.

It's going to be really groovy when everybody in China is driving a car.

[IrateCitizen]

2. What pisses me off most about all of this is...

... that it doesn't have to be this way!

If the populations and leaders of industrialized nations were willing to demonstrate just a smidgen of courage and foresight, we could possible deal with this challenge. Alternative energies, efficiency technologies and better planning are ALL available to us right now, but we're failing miserably to embrace and adopt them. Why? Because the current energy/transportation/community planning models are all highly centralized, and tend to concentrate decision-making powers into fewer and fewer hands. The American oil and auto manufacturers are an unbelievable impediment to progress in these areas -- so much so that I would characterize their obstructionism as downright criminal, given the ultimate consequences.

Embracing these technologies and methodologies NOW would allow us to export them to the developing world, which would not only help to stave off much of the trouble that is looming on the horizon, but also would provide much more in the way of jobs and a better livelihood for the people in those developing nations.

In a spirit of true schadenfreude, I almost can't wait until the crisis occurs -- if for no other reason, I can unload on all of my family and friends who preferred to keep their collective heads in the sand and ignore all of these problems while we still have the ability to somewhat fix them.

:argh:

[NNadir]

3. I could stand to be wrong on this one. I don't think I am, but I could

stand it.

The problem too doesn't just rest with my family and friends who have failed to heed my warning. It rests all so with me.

[IrateCitizen]

5. Absolutely. It rests with me too.

Almost all of us, in spite of our efforts to reduce our "ecological footprint", still consume more resources than our planet can possibly support.

But, I also think it's important to not let ourselves become too discouraged by this, but rather accept the challenge and seek to reduce our footprint further until we are living within our planet's limitations.

[amandabeech]

4. What is really surprising is the statement that the former director

of Saudi oil company Aramco, Sadad al Husseini, that Saudi Arabia has less oil than the U.S. seems to think. This statement tends to support recent statements by Bush enery investment banker Mathew Simmons that the current Saudi regime is inflating `its numbers.

Nonetheless, the IEA seems to think that 121 million barrels a day will be pumped in 2030, as opposed to a little over 80 barrels a day now. Note that the IEA does not show where all those barrels will come from or whether that oil is supposed to be high quality, easy to pump stuff.

However, we'll probably burn more coal and gas to make up for any shortfall in the amount of oil burned.

Can't leave that carbon in the ground, can we?

[jmcgowanjm]

7. More Reserve downgrades coming from Shell RD

it could be forced to lower its 14.35 billion barrels of
reported proved oil reserves by as much as 900 million
barrels. The reduction would come on top of a 25 per
cent writedown in Shell’s oil and gas reserves this year,
which led to the ousting of Sir Philip Watts as chief
executive.

Colin Morton, a fund manager with Rensburg, a
Shell shareholder, said: “This is very disappointing. We
all thought we were towards the end of the reserves
downgrades and we are now seeing the likelihood of more,
with yet more to come after that.

“Who knows how many more barrels will need to be
written down by the end of the audit? It could be more than
twice as many (as 900 million), or it could be less, but it
doesn’t look like we’ve seen the last of it yet.”

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-1334756,00.html

[Sebum]

6. we should have invested in alt.nrg decades ago!