Dengue Fever Caseload Up 36% YOY In Philippines - 2008 Could Surpass Previous Record Year - Xinhua

[hatrack]

MANILA, July 10 (Xinhua) -- Dengue cases this year could reach a "phenomenal" number in the Philippines and might even surpass the country's worst outbreak in 1998, media reports said on Thursday.

No less (sic) than 12,000 dengue cases have been reported from January to May, said Health Secretary Francisco Duque III, quoted by the Manila Bulletin. "There has been an increase of about 36 percent over last year," Duque said.

"Our highest (number of cases) was in 1998. Let's cross our fingers and hope we don't reach that, but there are indications it could reach, even surpass (the record)," said the health chief of the country.

In 1998, close to 40,000 cases of dengue, 500 of them fatal, were reported.

EDIT

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/10/content_8522494.htm

[mike_c]

1. I figured this was a vector issue....

Increased mosquito breeding and activity, combined with dense human populations that make host location easier.

[hatrack]

2. Plus higher degrees of activity by mosquitoes thanks to warmer temperatures

Might that also mean shorter breeding cycles. Could be!!

[mike_c]

3. possibly....

Mosquito development time is temperature dependent, as is activity and most aspects of metabolic rate. On the other hand, breeding success also depends upon a number of factors that don't necessarily respond to warming, at least not directly, e.g. blood meal and breeding site availability, and resting sites during the hottest part of the day. Breeding and diurnal resting sites are abundant in the Philippines, so I'd think vector control measures-- other than habitat poisoning, draining standing water, etc-- should focus on breaking the female feeding cycle. DDT sprayed onto interior walls is one of the best preventative measures (kills resting females after they take their first blood meal, before they can infect the next host, sequesters DDT where it does little or no environmental damage). Insecticidal bed nets too, although many folks can't afford them or just don't use them.