Cost and timeline for the Volt to cut our gas consumption. link to spreadsheet provided.

[JohnWxy]

THe Volt and other plug-in hybrids are destined (along with fuelcell vehicles) to play a very important part in reducing our need for petroleum. However, the significant reduction of demand for gas due to plug-in hybrids will take some time and some considerable investment. Below is a link to a spreadsheet which computes the number of gallons saved by the Volt versus a Toyota Corolla (or any car getting 30 mpg) and the time in years to reach any given fraction of our total gasoline consumption.

It's pretty surprising, but for the Volt to save the amount of gas equalling 3% of the total gasoline consumption it will take 19 years if you assume 100 mpg avg for the Volt, 100,000 initial sales and 20% annual sales growth. It would take 15,642,857 Volts at a cost (assuming $37,500 price at introduction with a quantity adjustment to price, which can be performed at user's discretion) of $217 Billion.

NOw if you assume 30% annual sales growth you reach 3% of total gas consumption saved (over a 30 mpg car (improving to 39 mpg over the time period)) in just under 15 years. To get to 30% of total gas consumption it would take just under 24 yrs and cost just over $2 Trillion. - I assumed that the Volt would gain in efficiency but also that the ICE would gain in efficiency too. THe improved efficiency is also calculated.


Click here to see spreadsheet and run your own assumptions

You can enter whatever assumptions you like for (user input areas are shaded green):
mpg for the Volt (a table also shows years to reach target and cost using several mpg figures),
initial sales,
annual rate of sales growth,
fraction of total gasoline demand you want to calculate for.

The spreadsheet calculates years to reach that percentage saved and the number of Volts needed and the cost of the volts needed to get there.

on edit: If I made some errors or the spreadsheet could be improved I'm open to your ideas.

[wtmusic]

1. IMO by the time the Volt is a reality (if ever)

there will be far better options on the market. EVs with the same range which require zero gas, zero tuneups, mufflers, oil changes, etc etc

Can 16M American drivers afford a $37K car?

[JohnWxy]

2. CEO of GMRick Waggoner gave a range of $30K to $45K for the starting price.

THis is why my assumption of 100,000 units sold in the first year may be a bit 'rich'. But you can enter whatever assumptions you think are more realistic - maybe 50,000 would be it for the first year. That's why I made so many user inputs - lots of assumptions.

The cost of the car is going to definitely crimp the speed of adaptation of it.

[DCKit]

4. Agreed. Too damn little, too damn late.

Other companies are already on it and will be able to provide a far better vehicles in a far wider range of types, sizes and price ranges. $37K is just too much.

Those of us who (currently) live in the city don't need or want a five passenger "family hauler" for commuting and errands. For me (as well as the majority of people I know) a two seater with room for three grocery bags and a 30 mile range would be more than sufficient - I can rent a larger vehicle for long distance travel.

What we need is cheaper and lighter electrical energy storage - affordable batteries or super capacitors. Until then, pure electric with Nimh batteries, compressed air/electric or electric/hydraulic hybrids would be perfect city cars.

BTW, the various comparisons between gas and electric fail to account for the fact that the energy required to produce a gallon of gas would propel an electric car about the same distance as that gallon of gas.

Additionally, there can't be an honest comparison as long as Big Oil is subsidized "cradle to grave" with tax breaks, cheap leases and taxpayer funded military protection for their racket. Turn those incentives back to alternative energy and we'd be off foreign oil in ten years - and a whole lot more popular in the world.

Getting off oil *is* a national security issue.

[kristopher]

3. Quite a set of assumtions.

First, why compare it to a 30 mpg average? Why not use the actual overall mileage rating in the US of 19.8? My wife and I plan to buy an EV in 2011 or 2012. It will replace one ICE vehicle, but we expect use of the other ICE vehicle to drop to almost nothing. Comparing the EV to ICE vehicles that might or might not be manufactured in the future with efficiency gains that might or might not take place doesn't make any sense if you are trying to predict the impact of the EV on the current fleet.

Second, why assume a 20% growth rate? The rate of growth is probably going to be more constrained by manufacturing than by demand. Do you think that is as fast as they can ramp up manufacturing?

Third, what about all the other automakers and the EVs they are introducing? I'm surmising that you are using the Volt as a cut-out to represent all EV/hybrids, but if that is the case, then you should start with a larger first run than 100,000. Between all the manufacturers, how many do you suppose will be hitting the market?

Fourth, where does 100 mpg come from? It sounds like a nice round number, but does it have any basis in fact?

Fifth, although it is easy to see why you'd do it, the economics of mass production for batteries means we are looking at declining prices for future production as more investment flows into battery manufacturing. Your price projection is too simple.


All of that said, I think it is an interesting effort and thank you for it.

[JohnWxy]

5. comparison made to corolla (30mpg) is make the comparison valid - a similar size and payload vehicle

It would not be valid to compare the Volt to dissimilar vehicles (the average for all cars includes large cars and SUVs) .. not a valid comparison.

The comparison on the spreadsheet, if you looked at it, is to both todays 30 mpg vehicle and an assumed 39 mpg vehicle in the 'out'-years. Assuming a 30% improvement in ICE performance is realistic since they could almost do that today with a little more effort (turbo-charging with downsizing the engine) lighter weight components. Also note that the MPG for the Volt in the out years goes up (significcantly) too (to 433 mpg in 15 yrs when assuming 100 mpg, possibly, in two years.

Re the quantity adjustment you are welcome to offer a better or more complex one. ( I'd enjoy seeing it. Will it have assumptions too?) I don't work for GM so a more detailed one would have involved even more assumptions. YOu are welcome to offer another Q adj. but be advised that making Q adj on a product which will be undergoing continuous and significant technical (engineeering) improvements (this will be a state of the art car) is highly problematic (i.e. tricky).

Re 20% grpwth rate as with most of the other assumptions if you do not like them you can change them in the spread sheet - designed it that way because these are assumptions. Keep in mind that at $37,500 (the mid-point of a range provided by Waggoner - thus an estimate and an assumption) is a significant percentage of the median income in the U.S. But if you dont like it , change it and see what you get . BTW I also stated the yeears to hit 3% at a 30% growth rate.

the 100 mpg figure is from R. Waggoner.

running out of time. will respond later.

[JohnWxy]

6. Correction: I thought I included the time to reach 3% of Tot Consumption saved, at 30% sales growth,

but I left that out.

At a 30% rate of sales growth starting at 100,000 initial sales it would take just shy of 15 yrs to reach 3% of total gas consumption saved when compared to an ICE powered car getting 30 mpg initially, improving to 39 mpg though the 15 yr time span(to reach 3% of Tot Consumption saved). To achieve a savings of gas consumption equalling 20% of total gas consumption U.S., it would take 22 years. The cost of the 104 million Volts needed to reach this target quantity would be $1.4 Trillion (rounded). This is based on the Volts getting, on average, 433 mpg versus 39 mpg for the ICE powered car by the end of the 22 years. To keep things simple, tHese cost figures are not inflated . It would be easy enough, if someone wanted to, to inflate the cost figures.

The spreadsheet has a table which shows various mpg's and the time and cost required to reach 3%, 20%, 30%, 50%, 75% and 100% of total gas consumption saved, all based on assumptions as to initial sales and sales growth entered by the user.

As I said, any assumptions can be changed to see what results you get.

I used the Volt as we know more about this car than any of those talked about by Nissan (and others?). I have no estimated prices for any other large manufacturer. THis would be just too much to assume when I have no idea what they expect to price their's at and no estimate as to how many miles to a Battery charge or estimate of likely avg mpg when in use by many owners.

One big assumption here is that the Volt will be released without too many problems which would significantly impact rate of sales. Turning this car out in two years will by quite a technical achievement and to imagine it not haveing some technical problems is to be pretty optimistic. These sales figures, initial and rate of growth are really a guess and depend a lot on how trouble free the car will be. I am assuming it will be relatively trouble free (to get 20% or 30% sales growth) and I admit THIS IS A HEFTY ASSUMPTION.

I would like to see GM (and Nissan and Toyata and Honda) be very succussful and sell these cars like hot-cakes so the price will come down, but honestly I dont' see the price coming down very rapidly on these cars (no matter how much I might wish it would be otherwise). It will take large sales to bring the price down and at the initial prices I really don't think sales will grow that fast (however, if gas prices keep going up like they have been sales will have no problem growing).

There is another assumption behind all these figures and that is that GM will be able to sell enough cars over-all to remain healthy enough to keep developing the car and gradually bring it's price down. It will take considerable capital to do it. Ordinarily, I wouldn't be surprised to see GM take a loss on the cars the first couple of years just to get sales going, but GM isn't going to be in a postion to take much losses on this car. I want to see GM succeed, but let's keep our fingers crossed. IF they do pull this off (selling a lot of them fairly quickly) it will be a huge technical and business achievement.