Wood Mackenzie - "Exploration Cannot Remain Growth Engine" for Big Oil

[hatrack]

For over 30 years, Wood Mackenzie has been providing analysis and strategic advice to the world’s leading energy companies. During this time they have developed a unique and unrivalled foundation of knowledge within the Energy Industry. They are specially known for their analysis of the oil industry. Now in January 2004 they have released an horizon analysis titled “New thinking needed for exploration?” The conclusions are with data since the mid 1990s:

Only 3 out of 10 exploration wells have been successful.

Excluding the giants of the deep-water zenith and Kashagan (1999 and 2000), the average discovery size has been around 50 million barrels. This should be compared with the daily production of 75 million barrels.

Summing up the discoveries for 2003 it looks to be around 20 million barrels per day. We are indeed cutting a large piece of the reserve cake.

The average value of discoveries has fallen. This is in accordance with the predictions of Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, www.isv.uu.se/uhdsg.

The average value of discoveries has fallen - the majors performed disproportionately well in 1999 and 2000 but less well before and since."

EDIT

The graph at this link says it all:

http://www.peakoil.net/WoodMackenzie.html