NHC - High Potential Of Tropical Cyclone Formation - 225 E. Windward Islands - 7/16 8:00 AM EDT

[hatrack]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


EDIT/END

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[phantom power]

1. Getting pretty active all over, now

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2. 7/16/08 2:00 PM EDT Update - "The Tropics Are Very Busy For The Middle Of July"

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING
AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS AREA TO DETERMINE IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

3. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST OF NICARAGUA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
TOMORROW...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

EDIT/END

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[hatrack]

3. 7/16/08 8:00 PM EDT - "Could Become A Tropical Depression Any Time Tonight Or Tomorrow'

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION
IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
TOMORROW...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

3. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

EDIT/END


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml