EDIT
As China's economy expands, so does its thirst for oil, gas, coal, and electricity. Today, China accounts for 12.1% of the world's energy consumption. That's second only to the U.S., at 24%, and up from 9% a decade ago. China's whole modernization strategy is based on access to abundant supplies of energy. Its hungry basic industries such as steel, aluminum, and chemicals devour electricity and coal. A mushrooming middle class consumes growing quantities of heating oil and gasoline. By 2010 analysts expect some 56 million cars, minivans, and sport-utility vehicles to be rolling on China's highways -- more than twice the number today. By 2020 the country's demand for oil will nearly double, to 11 million barrels a day, natural gas consumption will more than triple, to 3.6 trillion cubic feet annually, and coal use will grow by 76%, to 2.4 billion tons a year, according to a U.S. Energy Dept. forecast.
That means China will play a key role in influencing global oil prices and energy investment flows -- not to mention climate-destabilizing carbon dioxide emissions. "There is going to be a huge increase in consumption across the region, and especially in China," says Edu Hassing, an energy analyst at the Asian Development Bank.
With China consuming ever more oil, it risks developing an ever-greater dependency on foreign vendors of crude. For the security-obsessed Chinese, that's pretty scary. Right now, though, it's hard to see how the Chinese will avoid the same fate as the U.S., which is uncomfortably dependent on oil states such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Just a decade ago, China was a net exporter of oil, but now it imports 40% of its crude as output declines at the big northeastern fields near Daqing and Liaohe. What about developing new sources at home? China is sitting on potentially rich reserves in the high, dry deserts of the far west, but gas and oil there lie much deeper than in the northeast and will cost far more to get out of the ground. And given the country's primitive pipeline and transportation networks, moving it to the coastal cities that need it will be a challenge.
EDIT
What comes through most clearly in this energy scramble, though, is a mounting Chinese obsession with securing -- and safeguarding -- sufficient oil supplies from around the world. Coal is too polluting to rely on exclusively, and even nuclear energy won't come to the rescue. The 30 new reactors, when up and running, will kick in only about 4% of the juice the country needs. Oil, meanwhile, fuels China's cars, buses, and trucks and keeps many of its industrial plants churning out goods. So the clock is ticking on locking in an oil lifeline that will keep the nation's supergrowth on track. By 2025, China will probably import 75% of its crude -- nearly twice the percentage today -- and consume 10.6% of the world's oil, the U.S. Energy Dept. estimates. Although crude has fallen some from its recent $55-a-barrel high, experts expect Chinese demand will help prop up prices for years to come. And the Chinese know just how vulnerable a country can be when its oil comes from somewhere else. In fact, the military has published a book, called Liberating Taiwan, that imagines Chinese warships seizing sea routes to the Persian Gulf and imposing an oil embargo on Taipei, Tokyo, and Washington."
EDIT
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_46/b3908044.htm
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
