Ike Revs Up From 1 To Cat 3 In Three Hours - 645 ENE Leewards Max Sust 115 960 Mb Heading Florida

[hatrack]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/234613W_sm.gif

000
WTNT34 KNHC 032345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THIRD HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[saltpoint]

1. Thank you for posting this visual.

Ike got strong and big in a hurry and looks like it maybe could head up to Homestead, Florida.

A lot of people there are still reeling from Hurricane Andrew.

I'd love it if Ike, bless his salty heart, would do one of those wild turns to the hard Northeast and dissipate over the Atlantic.

But he looks like he has other plans.

[hatrack]

2. Hard to say - five days is a long time in any forecast - especially for hurricanes

Fingers crossed here . . .

[brer cat]

3. Thanks for the post.

I'm praying it stays away from Haiti!

[madrchsod]

4. check the 5 day on hana and josephine

not looking good for the entire east coast. i think lot depends on what`s happening out here on the plains in the next week

[hatrack]

5. 9/3/08 11:00 EDT Ike Hits Cat 4 610 NE Leeward Islands Max Sust 135 948 Mb

00
WTNT34 KNHC 040253
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES...
980 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.1 N...54.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[XemaSab]

6. Faster than expected...

[hatrack]

7. 9/4/ 05:00 AST Ike Intensifies 550 NE Leewards Max Sust 145 935 Mb Too Early To Determine Landfall

000
WTNT34 KNHC 040837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE EVEN STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...885
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME MORE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR CATEGORY THREE
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...22.7 N...55.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[hatrack]

8. 9/4 17:00 AST Ike Still Cat 4 505 NNE Leewards Max Sust 135 945 Mb Expect Turn To W Tonight

000
WTNT34 KNHC 042031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT....

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.6 N...58.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hatrack]

9. 9/4 23:00 AST Ike 755 ENE Grand Turk Max Sustained 135 945 Mb Track Points To Miami

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050246
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE TURNS WESTWARD...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES...
760 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 755 MILES
...1215 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.6 N...59.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[hatrack]

10. 9/5 05:00 AST Ike 660 ENE Grand Turk W 15 MPH Max Sust 125 945 Mb Track Looping S Into Gulf

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050854
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE HEADED WESTWARD...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740
KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A SLIGHT TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...23.7 N...61.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[hatrack]

11. 9/5 11:00 AST Ike 550 ENE Grand Turk W 16 Mph Max Sust 120 954 Mb Track Clear Into Gulf Of Mexico

000
WTNT34 KNHC 051442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...IKE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
685 KM...NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM
...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...
IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IKE
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hatrack]

12. 9/5 17:00 AST Ike 460 ENE Grand Turk WSW 15 Mph Max Sust 115 958 Mb Track For Florida Strait Tuesday

000
WTNT34 KNHC 052046
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IKE HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...690
KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 460 MILES...
735 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...22.9 N...64.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[phantom power]

13. track forecast models are in pretty good agreement.

[hatrack]

14. Its weakening has been slow and steady, but days to go before we sleep . . .

Could be interesting.

[XemaSab]

16. That's MILES to go...

;)

[phantom power]

18. Wind shear. It is our friend.

[kentauros]

25. The "Discussion" part of the NHC pages often talk about wind shear:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 071431
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115
KT. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD
BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL. HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO ANTICIPATE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT. ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE WATERS OVER
THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH...
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[hatrack]

15. 9/5 23:00 AST Ike 360 ENE Grand Turk WSW 16 Mph Max Sust 115 958 Mb Track Running Squarely Into Gulf

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060256
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[NickB79]

17. So, will Ike re-strengthen once it enters the Gulf?

Gustav actually lost strength on it's final run over open water. I wonder if the same will happen to Ike, or if it will surprise us and pull another Katrina.

[hatrack]

19. 9/6 16:00 AST Ike 135 E Grand Turk WSW 15 Mph Max Sust 115 956 Mb Tracking For LA Poss Fri/Sat

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061748
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE REGAINS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
INCLUDING THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS
TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CAMAGUEY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[hatrack]

20. 9/6 17:00 AST Ike Cranks Back To Cat 4 90 E Grand Turk WSW 15 Max Sust 135 949 Mb Tracking For LA

000
WTNT34 KNHC 062044
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH
WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM
...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND
THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[hatrack]

21. 9/6 20:00 AST Ike 60 E Grand Turk WSW 12 Max Sust 135 947 Mb 13-18 Foot Surge In Warning Areas

000
WTNT34 KNHC 062345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...105 KM
...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IKE SHOULD RESUME A TRACK BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHORTLY...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. IKE SHOULD
THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.3 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hatrack]

22. 9/6 23:00 Ike At Turks & Caicos WSW 15 Max Sust 135 947 Mb Track Into GOM W Trend Continues

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N...70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hatrack]

23. 9/7 11:00 AST Ike's Eye Over Great Inagua Island W 13 Max Sust 135 949 Mb

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071430
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2008

...EYE OF IKE PASSING OVER GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE
AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA
HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...
25 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 130 MILES
...205 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR..A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER
CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[hatrack]

24. 6/7 14:00 EDT Ike 90 ENE Guantanamo W 13 Max Sust 135 949 Mb Crossing Cuba Monday

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071801
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...CORRECTED FOR TIME...

...EYE OF IKE JUST WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE
AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST OR JUST WEST OF GREAT
INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 90 MILES...155 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$

[hatrack]

26. 9/7 17:00 EDT Ike 75 NNE Gitmo W 14 Max Sust 120 945 Mb Warnings For 10 Cuban Provinces

000
WTNT34 KNHC 072039
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...
CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM
...WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
FROM IKE. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[hatrack]

27. 9/7 23:00 EDT Ike 135 E Camaguey W 13 Max Sust 120 945 Mb Track Angling Towards Houston/Galveston

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080301
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...CORRECTION FOR SPELLLING OF CABO LUCRECIA...

...IKE ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ON THE NORTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA JUST WEST OF CABO LUCRECIA ABOUT 135 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATER ON MONDAY...AND NEAR
WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. BANES IN THE HOLGUIN PROVINCE OF CUBA...NOT FAR
FROM THE POINT OF LANDFALL...REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 121 MPH...194
KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
FROM IKE. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[hatrack]

28. 9/8 08:00 EDT Ike 35 S Camaguey W 14 Max Sus 100 960 Mb Entry To Gulf By Late Tuesday

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081156
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE HITTING CUBA HARD...EYE OF OVER CAMAGUEY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE PROVINCES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35
KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA TODAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES
OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
THROUGHOUT CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[hatrack]

29. 9/8 11:00 EDT Ike 45 WSW Camaguey W 14 Max Sust 100 960 Mb Tracking Over Water @ S. Edge Of Island

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE BATTERING CAMAGUEY CUBA...HEADING WESTWARD FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND
CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 290 MILES...465
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER
NEAR PUNTA MACURIJES IN THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY SOON. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY UNTIL IKE MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK COULD KEEP IKE
OVER WATER LONGER RESULTING IN SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING NEXT DAY
OR SO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
IKE'S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[hatrack]

30. 9/8 14:00 EDT Ike Back Over Water 250 ESE Havana W14 Max Sust 100 965 Mb

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081754
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE BACK OVER WATER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
APPROACHING...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...MOVE OVER
WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
IKE'S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. JUCARO ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA RECENTLY
REPORTED A GUST TO 86 MPH...138 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[hatrack]

31. 9/8 17:00 EDT Ike 215 SE Havana W 14 Max Sust 80 965 Mb Strenghtening Likely Once Out Over Gulf

000
WTNT34 KNHC 082056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...CORRECTION TO REMOVE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340
KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER
WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[hatrack]

32. 9/8 23:00 EDT Ike 140 SE Havana Max Sust 80 967 Mb Still Largely Over Water Restrengthtening Likely

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090235
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...BANDS OF HEAVY
SQUALLS NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
...40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PLAYA GIRON ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WEST-
CENTRAL CUBA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA
CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS WESTERN CUBA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHEN
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.8 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[hatrack]

33. 9/9 11:00 EDT Ike Beginning To Strengthen 120 W Havana WNW 9 Max Sust 80 967 Mb

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[hatrack]

34. 9/10 14:00 EDT Ike Back To Cat 2 255 W Key West NW 8 Max Sust 100 958 Mb Three Or Higher w/i 24 Hrs

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...IKE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[hatrack]

35. 9/10 22:00 CDT Ike 675 E Brownsville NW 7 Max Sust 100 944 Mb Range Cameron To Pt. Mansfield

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110246
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE SLOWLY HEADED NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY
WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1090 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

[hatrack]

36. 9/11 16:00 CDT Ike 470 ESE Galveston WNW 10 Max Sust 100+ 952 Mb Track Shifting To Galveston/Houston

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES...
710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES
...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...88.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[hatrack]

37. 9/11 22:00 CDT Ike 340 SE Galveston WNW 12 Max Sust 100+ 956 Mb Track Tightening On Houston

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES
...545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

[hatrack]

38. 9/12 07:00 CDT Ike 230 SE Galveston WNW 13 Max Sust 105 952 Mb Turn To North By Saturday

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH...176 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA