Missing The Hybrid Moment - Detroit's Arrogance Has No Limits

[hatrack]

Dec. 1, 2004 | An invitation to visit General Motors' main R&D facility, just north of Detroit, is like being given a ticket back to a mid-1950s World's Fair. The General Motors Technical Center, as it is called, was designed by the architect Eero Saarinen -- who would later collaborate on the IBM pavilion at the 1964 World's Fair in New York. Saarinen's research campus for GM features a stainless-steel water tower that resembles a spacecraft ready for liftoff, stately rectangular reflecting pools punctuated by fountains, a 65-foot-tall dome, and sprawling, low, International Style office buildings. All that's missing as I park my rental car is the surging, glockenspiel-heavy "World of Tomorrow" soundtrack. I'd come to talk to some of General Motors' top research executives about the company's investment in hydrogen fuel cell technology. (GM has been touting hydrogen as the fuel of the future and showing off a concept car called the Hy-wire.) But I ended up surprised at the swipes GM executives took at Honda's and Toyota's success with hybrid vehicles. They accused the two Japanese carmakers of selling their hybrids at a loss to generate positive environmental buzz, and argued that hybrids appeal only to a microscopic subsegment of U.S. consumers.

"You always have your early adopters," said Alan Taub, GM's executive director for R&D, about today's hybrid buyers. "Toyota sells as many Priuses as we sell Pontiac Aztecs. Is that a success?" Earlier this year, at the Detroit International Auto Show, Bob Lutz, GM's vice chairman of product development, had said that the company's decision not to make a hybrid car "was a mistake from one aspect, and that's public relations and catering to the environmental movement."

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GM is not alone in its hybrid disdain. Its Detroit rivals have been similarly slow to warm up to hybrids. DaimlerChrysler, which is more interested in cleaner diesel engines than hybrids, did announce plans to produce a hybrid version of its Dodge Durango SUV by 2003, but that vehicle has apparently gotten lost on the way to dealerships. The introduction of Ford's first hybrid, the Escape SUV, was delayed from 2003 to 2004. General Motors aims to be the first company to profitably sell a million hydrogen vehicles -- "we measure success when it has six zeroes behind it," Taub told me. But the company has so far introduced only two "mild hybrid" pickup trucks, which improve gas mileage by about 10 to 15 percent, in a few scattered markets. (By comparison, Ford's hybrid Escape drives nearly twice as far as the traditional Escape on a gallon of gas.) Back in the 1970s, the Big 3 carmakers watched in dismay as Japanese imports carved a huge swathe through their traditional markets. Is history about to repeat itself? Is Detroit missing out on a major shift in technology -- and car-buyer psychology -- by committing only grudgingly to hybrid vehicles? By betting big on the ever-elusive technologies of tomorrow, like hydrogen, carmakers such as GM may be letting the present slip away.

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But the day when 10 percent of Californians will be tooling around in fuel cell vehicles is still far off, as is the fantastical year of 2010, when teenagers will travel by personal jet pack and Christmas dinner will be packaged in a pill. Today, consumers who care about gas mileage and limiting their impact on the environment are purchasing hybrids. General Motors' first forays into consumer hybrids, its Chevy Silverado and Sierra pickup trucks, aren't really in the same category as the Toyota and Ford hybrids. They're "mild hybrids," which seek fuel efficiency by capturing energy lost in braking and by shutting off the engine when a driver is stopped at a red light, using batteries to power accessories like the radio and air conditioning. Full hybrids like the Prius do those things, too, but they also use banks of batteries and electric motors to actually propel the vehicle when it's moving at low speeds. GM won't offer a full hybrid until 2007. (DaimlerChrysler has yet to start selling its first hybrid of any sort in the U.S., though now it seems that a Dodge Ram pickup will likely be first in line.) GM's Taub says the company is trying to "take the hype out of hybrids," introducing the technology slowly, and in vehicles where it will have the greatest environmental impact, like trucks and SUVs, which swill more gas and emit more pollutants than passenger cars. And he adds that GM doesn't intend to sell money-losing vehicles. "The question with hybrids is who will be the cleverest at driving down costs the fastest," Taub says."

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http://www.salon.com/tech/feature/2004/12/01/hybrid_hesitation/index.html

Another news tidbit from today - Toyota has now sold 250,000 Priuses worldwide.

[phantom power]

1. It has to be group-think. That's the only reason I can think of

to explain how blind the American auto industry is to what's actually going on.

[htuttle]

3. They did the exact same thing in the late 70's

They kept making huge tuna-boats, while Japan came in with smaller cars that got better mileage, and ate Detroit's lunch. It was never the same.

They are doing exactly the same thing with hybrids. I sure the HELL don't want the government to bail them out again.

[happyslug]

4. Economics

Hybrids, require a complete new engine and drive trains. Hydrogen permits the use of existing engines and drive trains. With Hydrogen all you have to do it adjust the intake so that the engine run on Hydrogen Gas and install a Hydrogen tank. Relatively mild modification of existing engines. A little more complicated than switching from Gasoline to Natural Gas, but not much.

Hybrids on the other hand require a complete new set of engines (All smaller than existing engines), electric Motors on the Wheels (Which replaces the traditional transmission and drive train on a Car). People tend to forget that the ENGINE AND DRIVE TRAIN is what actually MOVES a car, the body is built around the engine and drive train.

The Big Three have an tremendous investment in existing engine and drive train manufacturing capability. If possible the Big Three would like to keep that capability. The problems in the 1970s was the Big three had switched to bigger engines and automatic Transmissions throughout the 1960s (The Switch starting in the 1950s but accelerated in the 1960s) and when the Gas shortage of the 1970s hit the Big Three had tremendous investment in Big V-8 and large Automatic Transmission production facilities. The Big Three wanted to keep these and use them, but people wanted smaller more efficient cars, which could not be produced with the industrial infrastructure of the Big Three. The Big Three complained to Congress about the Japanese imports and demanded protection, but the protection was to force people to buy American Cars with V-8 engines (While the Big Three slowly converted to V-6s and smaller Automatic Transmissions to compete with the Japanese).

The Japanese had always produced smaller cars than the Big Three, do to domestic Japanese Requirements that encouraged small car ownership. Thus when the Gas Criss hit all the Japanese had to do was increase production of the same cars originally designed for the Japanese Market. The Big Three could not match that capability for they had ignored the small car market for decades. It took the Big Three almost 10 years to adjust to making smaller cars and even than the big kept the larger engines for their Pickups (Which made the Big three quicker to adapt to the SUV craze of the 1990s).

The problem for the Big Three is that they are in the same situation as to Hybrids they were in with small cars in the 1970s. Extensive investment in industrial infrastructure for large Cars (in the 1970s, Suva in today) and almost no investment in smaller engines and transmissions (In the 1970s, no investment in Hybrids manufacturing capability today).

Thus why the Big Three hate Hybrids, the Big Three will have to make a huge investment in manufacturing capability for Hybrids AND write off their investment in the large Engines and Transmissions manufacturing capability the Big Three continued to use throughout the SUV craze of the 1990s. People hate when they have to invest money to MATCH a competitor. Money that could have gone to them as bonuses now ha to be used to buy equipment.

This is why the Big Three hate Hybrids and Toyota. Toyota has shown Hybrids are not only possible to build but profitable. The Big Three hope for a Hydrogen Future for it involves minimal investment by the Big Three, a hybrid Future means heavy investment something the big three really do not want to do (Just like they did not want to invest in smaller engines and transmissions in the 1970s).

[midnight armadillo]

5. Very insightful

Excellent post.

I also feel that GM in particular is betting the farm on pushing showy fuel cell and hydrogen research while milking their SUVs for all they're worth. I suspect they simply have no major hybrid research program and therefore disparage the Japanese hybrids whenver they can in the hope that hybrids are a fad that will blow over, letting Americans return to GM for big ass trucks.

The DaimlerChrysler diesel strategy is driven by the massive diesel demand in Europe and has some merit. A diesel/electric hybrid is possible but no one is producing one.

[phantom power]

6. Are they really planning to burn H2 for internal-combustion?

I thought they were intending to develop fuel-cell vehicles, which is an even more radical departure than a hybrid.

[happyslug]

9. Yes, they want to burn something

Now they are also working on Fuel Cells also, but Fuel Cells will NOT require almost daily refills of Hydrogen. Fuel Cells are a "Super Battery" and as such the Hydrogen is used constantly and re-used as the Fuel Cell gains or loses electricity. It is possible to "re-fuel" fuel cells, and it is possible for fuel cells to lose water and/or hydrogen, but not enough to require monthly refills let alone daily re-fills.

Now the above assumes a "Closed System" Fuel Cell, Hydrogen to Water to release electricity, and than Water to Hydrogen as Electricity is electricity is added to the System. This system is compatible with a hybrid system like that used on the Primis and Honda Hybrids. IT permit the use of present engine technology through very small engines compared to what most American drive today.

An Alternative to the Closed system is an "Open" Fuel Cell system. In an Open System you directly add hydrogen to the Fuel Cell as it runs out of Electricity. As one uses the Electricity the Hydrogen is converted to Water and lost to the Atmosphere. This is a "super" electric car concept with all of the problems of an electric car (Extensive weight to provide the needed power).

The biggest problem with the "Open" Fuel Cell system is that it is more efficient to generate electricity in an engine than to store that electricity. In Hybrids you are driving an electric car when the primary source of electric power is being provided by the gasoline engine. "Excess" power is used to charge the batteries, which are discharged when you need more power than what the engine can provide (Or if the batteries are fully charged, cuts off the engine and runs down the batteries till you need the engine again). This minimize battery needs, and maximize usage of the the engine. It is this one two punch that makes Hybrids so fuel efficient NOT that it is electric driven.

In an "Open" Fuel cell system you are just recharging the Fuel Cells with Hydrogen instead of Electricity. The Hydrogen has to come from some energy source and if you look at the whole system much less efficient that a "Closed" Fuel Cell system that is re-charged by an engine. Thus while it is possible to design and use a pure fuel cell car, it will not be as efficient as a Hybrid (and that does not change that much if you use batteries or Fuel Cells to store the excess electric power).

[phantom power]

10. If they still plan to use IC engines, they might as well just use

manufactured hydrocarbons. Why bother with the fuel cells at all? Just use a fuel cycle where we generate some synthetic hydrocarbon fuel, using renewable energy as the cycle-driver, and use engines that burn the synthetic fuel.

[happyslug]

16. That is one proposals

Bio-Diesel and Bio-mass Alcohol can be burned in Internal Combustion engines. I once commented that when oil is depleted in about 100 years, people will still be using Internal Combustion engines for certain functions. Such Engines will be run on bio-mass fuel not oil (and the Fuel may be $100-200 a gallon). What these will be I can guess, for example ambulances may be a priority, engines on blimps may be another, but such engines will still exist in very tiny niches given the price of fuel in 100 years. Thus the Internal Combustion engine will be around for a long while.

[hatrack]

7. Uh . . . generally agree, but one point of disagreement

"Hybrids on the other hand require a complete new set of engines (All smaller than existing engines), electric Motors on the Wheels (Which replaces the traditional transmission and drive train on a Car). People tend to forget that the ENGINE AND DRIVE TRAIN is what actually MOVES a car, the body is built around the engine and drive train."

This is puzzling. I drive a Prius, and it uses the same platform and the same 1.5L gasoline engine as the Toyota Echo. It's definitely not a new engine. Also, my hybrid does not have "electric motors on the wheels", and neither does the Insight, the hybrid Civic or the hybrid Accord. All of these models DO have regenerative brakes to capture energy and recharge the battery, but that's a long way from an electric motor.

But I agree with your larger point - Detroit just spent the last 10+ years cranking out big honkin' trucks & SUVs and bulking up their collective physical plant accordingly. They sure as hell don't want to change, although as businesspeople, they sure as hell should have been aware of the elusive concept called "change" - things DO change, whether Detroit wants to admit it or not.

Even Marketplace, a radio program that often bugs the hell out of me, had a report on this very phenomenon last night. They noted that Lutz actively dislikes pretty much all things environmental, and that his personal gall may be the reason GM's lagging so far behind on hybrids.

They also noted a bigger problem in Detroit - White Knight Syndrome. The whole city seems to hang breathlessly on the deeds and words of whoever the putative White Knight du jour is. It was Lutz, a holdover from the good ol' 1960s, and no one was going to question the current White Knight. But with GM yesterday reporting a 13% drop in sales, even with all the financing gimmicks, Lutz may be on the way out.

For Detroit's sake, I hope so.

[happyslug]

8. What is the smallest engine made by GM in North America?

A 2.5 liter Four cylinder? The Geo Metro was 993cc (.9 Liter) but its engine was built by Suzuki in Japan. GM makes some 1.0 Liter Engines in both Japan and Austria, but to my knowledge not in North America.

GM has a tremendous investment in large engines, and if you go to Hybrids all of that infrastructure is scrap metal. You do not need a 3.5 Liter V-6 on a hybrid, the 1.5 litter of the Primis is sufficient. This is the point I was making, GM want to maximize its profit from its existing ability to produce large engines and transmissions. All of that disappear if you go to Hybrids. Profit margins go to hell, and the boys in the financial office starts to complain. Shit flows down hill to the designers and other managers who have learn to hate innovation for this very reason.

Now there is some personal rationales also, but I have found real hatred requires someone to lose money, thus when I see someone acting on "hatred" I look for the money cause first.

[phantom power]

11. How about the Horizon? It had a 1.8L, but I don't know if they

make them any more.

[phantom power]

12. I wonder if they could use engines from something smaller, like

ATVs, or snowmobiles, or motorcycles, etc.

[happyslug]

13. The answer is yes, but those ARE NOT produced by the Big Three.

They is no reason you can not build a hybrid car with a 250cc Motorcycle engine (Or even a small lawn motor engine). Since the engine is being used as a Generator, the load is small compared to a direct Engine- Transmission-Drive Train-Axle-Wheel system used in conventional cars.

Thus quite small engines could be used, with small set of batteries you could produce a car that get 200-300 mpg (Through top speed will be about 20mph).

This is also the Big- Three Dilemma, they are MANY small engine makers, all of which could provide engines for Hybrids. The Big Three big investment is in making LARGE engines and transmissions, not small engines nor electric storage devices (i.e. Fuel Cells, Batteries, Fly wheels).

[amandabeech]

14. GM Saturn Ion and Chevy Cobalt

come with base 2.2 liter 4 cylindar engines. The Ford Focus comes with a 2.0 liter 4 cyl. engine, but at least one model comes with a 2.4 liter. The Dodge Neon is still around and sports a similar 2.0-ish engine. I do not know where any of these engines are produced.

The AMC/Renault Encore from the 1980's had a nifty little 1.4 that was made here and in France. I had one but it finally died 12 years later of an electrical problem.

The Ford Hybrid Escape uses a 2.3 liter 4 cyl. engine with a front-wheel drive power train, not the 4 x 4.

[happyslug]

17. The AMC Renault 1.4 liter engine

You admit to owning one too!!!!! That was a nifty engine I always started it in second for first was geared so low. I did find out why First was geared so low. I once had four 250 pound men in that Renault and it was the only time I had to start the car in First (and I was going up hill).

Good car, but the undercarriage went out on me and I traded it in.

[midnight armadillo]

18. 2.0 liter 4-cyl

The version of their Ecotec 4-cyl used in the Saab 9-3SS. Granted it's turbo'd in that application.

I think that's the smallest GM makes.

[hatrack]

2. Shameless self-kick - this is well worth the Salon day pass

Excellent article!

[amandabeech]

15. Ford developed its Escape Hybrid on its own, although it started

after Toyota. Ford wanted to develop its own system so that it would gain all the knowledge about the system that can only come from going through every step itself.

Ford holds many patents on its system, but some of its parts/systems were so close to Toyota's that Ford chose to obtain licenses from Toyota so as to avoid delays in getting its product to market. Toyota has confirmed this. I have posted this information several times in threads similar to this with cites.

I think that Ford should not be lumped in with its U.S. competitors, the troglodytic GM and Daimler/Chrysler when it comes to hybrids.

Daimler/Chrysler may have some interesting offerings in the super-efficient diesel market at some point, similar to the VW TDI's, due to its experience with Mercedes auto diesel engines. Perhaps they will license one of the other hybrid systems to put with diesel. That might be an interesting vehicle, and one that prove useful in urban/suburban delivery trucks as well.

As for GM--with the exception of their hybrid diesel city buses, which are a good idea, they seem to be completely useless.

I'll start getting excited about fuel cells when there is a real plan to obtain and distribute all that hydrogen in a net-energy positive manner without using fossil fuels as a feedstock.