Many Americans have already bought their last car -- they just don't it yet.

[phantom power]

For my money (literally) there are only two main reasons that any portion of the car industry should be rescued at the present time: one, because we need somebody to manufacture engines for military vehicles, and two, because we need somebody to manufacture rolling stock for the revival in passenger railroad service that will have to be a centerpiece of the future economy if we want to remain a civilized nation.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/11/presto-change-o.html

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Big business for mechanics, auto parts, and "pre-owned" cars.

Just sayin' . . .

[rateyes]

2. The automakers should stop manufacturing cars with gas-fueled engines.

Want a new car--you have to go electric.

[phantom power]

3. I think it's about more than just fuel...

it's about the economic cost of owning a personal vehicle, and the fact that fewer people are going to be able to afford it.

Not that fuel isn't an important factor.

[Strelnikov_]

23. Hear, hear.

We can no longer afford the inefficiency of the ICE.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4437024&mesg_id=4438951

[TheWraith]

4. Why does anyone listen to this complete moron anymore?

Kunstler has proven himself massively wrong over, and over, and over, and continues to demonstrate a total ignorance as to the basic realities of future infrastructure. When you can show me a passenger railroad that accomodates a county with 75 people per square mile, THEN you can talk about giving up cars.

[phantom power]

6. Two things...

1) He said "many" and not "all."

2) Back before automobiles, rural communities were seriously isolated. People went months or years without traveling more than a few miles from home. We may be returning to those days. That's what he's saying.


Clearly, you think he's wrong.

[liberal N proud]

7. These morons who write this shit have not been west of the Delaware River

America is too vast to completely abandon individual transportation.

[phantom power]

8. I think the idea is, we may not get a choice in the matter.

[Terry in Austin]

10. Your county is a given?

You want to "accomodate a county with 75 people per square mile" as though that's the given. It may turn out that you're just living in the wrong place. Railways are going to be an important part of the mix, and people who move near rail service are likely to be a lot better off.

You speak of morons, but there will certainly be a hard core who are not ever going to "give up cars" as long as they have any shred of an option. The point is, though, there may not be much choice for much longer.

[kristopher]

18. Here is a little thought exercise for you

Cost of abandoning 80% of rural/exurban housing, housing systems and associated commercial infrastructure.

+

Cost of building sufficient urban infrastructure to house and employ and service the influx of the 80% of rural dwellers.

+

Cost of developing rail transit systems for city-city and urban rail systems.

+

Cost of transitioning to non-fossil fuel economy with little personal transportation.



Compared to

Cost of transition to non-fossil fuel economy with electric vehicles using vehicle 2 grid technology that meets much of a renewable energy infrastructure's energy storage requirements.

+

Cost of improved rail for long haul cargo.



This demographic shift everyone keeps harping on isn't going to happen given the existing state of renewable energy technologies and energy storage technologies. Technological advances would be nice, but we already have the technologies that dictate re-urbanization will not happen.

[bananas]

27. The conversation is going to change so quickly once Obama is in office

and starts making policy.

[Doctor Cynic]

17. For your second sentence...

There's Russia. Extremely huge land mass, an unevenly distributed population, and massive passenger railway system.

[madokie]

5. I can't wait to see rail service our here

maybe I'll be made to walk to the station, I don't know. We'll have automobiles until there is a better alternative and rail or bus is not it. teletransportation huh :rofl:

[Terry in Austin]

12. Living in the boonies may not always be a viable option

We may have automobiles until there is a "better alternative." Or we may not -- we're not necessarily entitled to the means to live wherever we please.

These discussions of "car vs. rail" tend to trivialize the changes that are in store. It always sounds like Mr./Ms. American Consumer going "Hmm - what shall I buy today? Car, railroad; car, railroad? Nope, car is a better deal."

Phooey, that's deck chairs, and we need to be thinking iceberg.

Unfortunately, most people will continue to cling to their car-centric culture for as long as they possibly can, and they will insist on living in car-dependent locations for as long as they possibly can. But the longer past due they wait, the more hardship they will experience in making the transition.

Here's a simple step that can be taken right now: move someplace closer where you don't have to depend on your car so much.

[madokie]

13. No Terry lets not get carried away

The first thing we don't want to do is convince ourselves that we have to make drastic changes all of a sudden. I say cooler heads can and will prevail. Its taken a lot of time to get where we are and its going to take quite a while getting back. We don't need to 'EV1' our cars, meaning kill them off like gm did the EV1, what we need is to use common sense with leadership to get our alternate energy options up and running. And in that scheme of things, since we already have the coal plants I propose they convert them to a gasifier unit rather than a direct burn like most of them use today. Only to help us, mind you, while we are getting serious with building and bringing online the wind, solar and geothermal. Get serious about building the infastructure to get here from there, if you know what I mean. IMO

[Terry in Austin]

16. I know what you mean

Serious about building infrastructure, common sense with leadership, all the rest. With Obama on the scene, we've got a good shot at it. We definitely need a practical transition plan to get from where we are to where we have a renewable energy infrastructure. We've got a good shot, but it's far from in the bag.

Cooler heads may indeed prevail, and if they do, it will be because they fully understand what we're up against and how to respond. I don't think it will include EV1-ing the existing car fleet or anything like that. We certainly don't want to make drastic changes all of a sudden, but sometimes drastic changes impose themselves whether we want them or not. So far, our energy predicament is shaping up to be one of those times.

I don't see much serious consideration of the sheer scale of what's coming at us, nor how fast. The Hirsch report found that in order to make a relatively painless transition to the post-carbon era, it will take something like twenty years' worth of a fully-committed, policy-driven, top-town, Apollo-scale programs before the occurrence of peak oil. Well, scratch the painless part -- we've already got about minus three years to peak oil.

Yes, it took us a while to get here, and it will take a while to get back. The big IF is whether we have enough of a while. I think it would be foolish to take it for granted that we do. Time is not on our side here.

I do hope some kind of programs are put in place that are serious about addressing our predicament at the appropriate scale. Read: HUGE. Realistically, given the way such programs go, I'd give it about a toss-up chance that one gets agreed upon and put into action, then another fifty-fifty that it ends up successful. Pessimistic, perhaps, but I will root for the effort as hard as I can and contribute what I can. Meanwhile, keep an eye on Plan "B" and Plan "C."

[lectrobyte]

14. You are assuming your standard of living will enable you to afford

a car.

[Warpy]

9. Out in flyover country

there will always be a need for passenger vehicles because distances are long and public transit will always be spotty. People will often need to drive a hundred miles or so to get to a mass transit hub.

It would be a shame to lose one of our few remaining industries. What really needs to happen is a temporary nationalization of that industry and a sacking of its management, no golden parachutes, just don't let that door smack ya, buh bye. A program akin to the space program could then be centered there and the next generation of both mass transit and personal transit vehicles could be developed.

A lot of different alternative energy technology research lines are starting to mature. Centering development and production around the declining auto industry makes sense for a lot of reasons: infrastructure, trained workers, vital redevelopment of a long depressed region of this country, and resisting the loss of yet another industry offshore.

Unfortunately, we still have Stupid in office for another 70+ days, so what we'll get is another taxpayer bailout so that the executives can preserve their golden parachutes and resist changing with the times.

[lectrobyte]

15. You may have to move, or find a job closer to home. A big part of his

theory that changing energy availability and the economic shifts it will entail will force us to rethink our suburbs and living arrangements.

[Warpy]

20. You might want to remove "you" from your reply vocabulary

because you don't know a damned thing about me or anybody else.

Actually, I'm a city gal who's thought in these terms for a very long time. I didn't own a car for years when I lived in Boston, a city with good mass transit. I do need one out here in flyover country because things are different. Distances are longer and mass transit is woefully inadequate, a desultory bus system that stops running at 7 PM.

Unless you want your food to grow and harvest itself and teleport onto your table, you're going to have to come to terms with the fact that personal transportation is going to be a necessity for a lot of people in this country.

[lectrobyte]

28. Boston is flyover country? I misunderstood you. Have a nice day!

Other than that, I still think that changing energy availability and the economic shifts it will entail will force us to rethink our suburbs and living arrangements.

[GliderGuider]

11. Here's a subversive parallel

Bailing out the autocos so we can keep on driving through the suburban wasteland the automobiles created in the first place is like...



...sending ever more troops to Iraq to keep a lid on the chaos the troops themselves created in the first place.

Things that can't go on as they are, don't. Unsustainable situations eventually collapse into sustainable situations, whether we like it or not. Kunstler is saying we are in an unsustainable situation, and have absolutely no say in whether it continues on its unsustainable path. The best we can hope for is to steer it a bit, as it reorganizes into sustainability according to its own internal dynamics.

It's hard for me to see how that sustainable situation will include widespread personal automobile ownership, whether the cars are gasoline or electric.

[kristopher]

19. Plenty of americans have bought their last Internal Combustion Engine car.

I'd agree with that.

[curse of greyface]

21. Yet you propose a gas tax and the pitchforks come out.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4437024

:mad:

[Strelnikov_]

24. A study in "why we're fucked"

and Jevon's Paradox and "Tragedy of the Commons" all rolled up into one.

[Dead_Parrot]

26. People will do anything to save the planet...

... so long as it doesn't cost them any time, money, effort or convenience.

There was a thread a while back about allowing remote shutdown of A/C to avoid brown-outs - pretty much vital if you have lots of renewable energy in the mix - and the villagers stormed the castle then, too. Not to mention the other thread in E/E at moment...

Sigh. It's depressing how quickly people go from "Hurrah for Al Gore! Let's save the Earth!" to "Get the fuck away from my car!".

[Nihil]

29. Too f*cking true.

:-(

[Strelnikov_]

22. "the biggest shit sandwich the world has ever seen"

The current occupant of the White House, however, has sedulously prepared for his successor the biggest shit sandwich the world has ever seen, and there is naturally some concern that Mr. Obama might choke on it. The dilemma is essentially this: the consumer economy we all knew and loved has died.

Classic Kunstler, and why I am not that excited. The problem is not good leadership (when they get a chance like now), the problem is we the people.

For example, consider the following thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4437024

The age of oil is coming to an end. Adapt, or die.

[Chan790]

25. I was interested until I saw Jim Kunstler's name...

you have better odds of pissing out of an airplane and hitting the bullseye on a regulation competition dartboard than you do of James Howard Kunstler being right about anything ever...his track record is right up there with Art Bell...just another charlatan promoting boogeymen. If he told me tomorrow was going to be sunny, I'd spend the balance of today building an ark.