Duke Energy: nuclear overnight cost $5000/kW, afraid to estimate final cost

[bananas]

http://www.bizjournals.com/triad/stories/2008/11/03/daily21.html

Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Duke doubles cost estimate for nuclear plant

Duke Energy Carolinas has raised the expected construction costs of its proposed Lee Nuclear Station to $11 billion, excluding financing costs. That’s roughly twice the company’s original estimates.

Based on the financing costs for Duke’s new coal-powered unit at Cliffside Steam Station, financing expenses would increase the nuclear plant’s price to more than $14 billion.

<snip>

The cost estimates for Duke’s proposed nuclear plant in Gaffney, S.C., have proved controversial. Three years ago, Duke gave an estimate of $4 billion to $6 billion for the two 1,117-megawatt reactors it proposed to build. Duke had not updated those figures until now. Opponents of the project have noted that nearly identical plants proposed in Florida will cost as much as $17.8 billion.

The Lee plant is slated for completion in 2018. But Duke’s new estimates for the project are not adjusted for future inflation. Company spokeswoman Paige Sheehan says Duke did not attempt to calculate how much the final costs would be, with inflation factored in. She says there are too many uncertainties to calculate a firm number. The company chose to release its new estimate based on the current costs.

<snip>

http://www.bizjournals.com/triad/stories/2008/11/03/daily21.html

Duke Energy Carolinas puts cost of two new nuke units at $11 bil

Boston (Platts)--4Nov2008

Duke Energy Carolinas, which has proposed building two, 1,100-MW nuclear
reactors in South Carolina, has told regulators it believes the unit will cost
$11 billion in 2008 dollars, excluding escalation or financing costs.

The estimate was contained in an integrated resource plan the utility
filed with North and South Carolina regulators late Monday.

The estimate, which is the first released by Duke, puts the so-called
"overnight" capital cost of the two units at $5,000/kW of installed capacity.

Duke spokeswoman Paige Sheehan said the utility decided against including
financing or escalation costs in its estimate because doing so would result in
a much wide range of estimated costs.

<snip>

[formercia]

1. I think that makes photo-voltaic arrays competitive.

I hate to be sarcastic, but who is stupid enough to sign off on this?

[lapfog_1]

2. At $5 to $7 per generating watt

solar would be cheaper and wouldn't have the operating costs nor the waste disposal costs.

Solar is about $5/watt currently... and that's buying it retail at single panel prices. A quantity purchase of some 11 million panels (200 watts each) would likely drive the price down in half. Assume that they serve maybe 1 million consumers and you have a place ready made to install all those panels, about 12 panels per rooftop. And little in the way of grid implications.

[phantom power]

3. PV is $5/watt, but operates 1/4 the time. Hmm....

[lapfog_1]

4. What planet do YOU live on?

The one I live on has sunlight for about 12 hours a day, on average. And when demand for electricity peaks, it's usually very sunny out. While it's true that solar is only at peak efficiency for 8 hours a day or (which is 1/3 not 1/4 as you imply), the peak operating time matches peak demand (hot sunny summer days).

Power plants are built to handle peak requirements, and usually operate at significantly less than peak capacity, averaging 75% or less of peak. Not to mention that they didn't add in the true cost of building, operating, waste disposal, and mothballing/removal of the nuclear plant. If they did, the cost wouldn't be $5 to $7 per watt... think $10 or $12 per watt (and we don't really know that final cost because, to date, no nuclear plant has EVER been completely accounted for).

[phantom power]

5. I live in sunny AZ..

Where the capacity factor for PV is 19%. BTW, capacity factor for thermal solar is half decent. We should build some more of that, if we're going to go and build big solar.

Typical capacity factors

* Wind farms 20-40%. <3><4>
* Photovoltaic solar in Massachussets 12-15%.<3>
* Photovoltaic solar in Arizona 19%<5>
* Thermal solar power tower 73%<6>
* Themal solar parabolic trough 56%<6>
* Nuclear 60% to over 100%, U.S. average 92%.<3> Worldwide average varied between about 81% to 87% between 1995 and 2005.<7>
* Base load coal plant 70-90%<3>
* Combined cycle gas plant, about 60%<3>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor

[Throckmorton]

10. Here in my part of Connecticut

The sun shines an average of 4.0 full power hours per day, which is a capacity factor of 16.67%. Meaning that I would need a solar array of of about 7.0 KW to provide for my approximate 28 KW-Hours of electricity I use per day.

I have actually validated this number as I have a 0.2 KW array that I use to run my ham station, and I get about 800 watts of available energy per day, as totalized by my charging controller under heavy load conditions.

[bananas]

7. You're trying to compare PV today with nuclear in ten years

because these reactors won't be finished until 2018 at the earliest.
Nuclear costs are expected to increase, wind and solar costs are expected to decrease.

[rdublue]

6. Finding water to cool the reactors is difficult during the droughts we experience

Cooling a reactor requires millions of gallons of water per day. solar is a much better option in my opinion

[Throckmorton]

11. Actually, we use seawater,

and our total once through circulating water flow is close to 70 million gallons per hour to cool our two unit, 2100 Megawatt station.

[NNadir]

8. That much cheaper than solar? That much cheaper than dangerous fossil fuels?

That's great news.

Once again nuclear power proves to be cheaper than all of its alternatives, especially because the fuel is so cheap and because it is trivial to dispose of the used fuel.

Of course, the failed solar industry, which could only build an unreliable plant with as much energy production as a nuclear plant for $20 billion, not counting the enormous output of toxic chemical waste, will try to represent this in terms of selective attention.

Before stupid people began demonizing nuclear power, 440 nuclear plants were built on the surface of the earth, most operating for up to 4 decades without loss of life.

But, of course, like arsonists who claim to be firemen, the anti-nuke cults don't get it. Several decades of vandalism of the world's largest, by far, source of climate change gas free energy, infrastructure have left humanity compelled to redo the FOAKE costs.

Ignorance kills. That's not a future tense. That's past and present tense.

Of course the stupid fucks responsible for this killing couldn't fucking care less about what they have done, with their Marie Antoinette outlook.

Don't worry shitholes. They will build nuclear plants in India. They will build them in China. They will build them in Indonesia.

But the future generations here may end up holding faded flyers about the Gospel of the Solar Tesla while they pick through grains in the mud looking for something to eat.

Heckuva job. The anti-nukes must be very proud. They could have opened a fucking science book, but if one hates science, hates reason and can't think, one don't give a fuck who one kill.

Useless yuppies with bad educations. Sounds like time to get shitfaced under Mom's table with a bottle of Allen's coffee Brandy.

The same cretins, when things are even worse next year, will be saying the same shit, even as the dangeorous fossil fuel waste in the atmosphere passes 400 ppm.

Heckuva job.

[jpak]

9. stupid people anti-nuke cults Ignorance kills stupid fucks shitholes Allen's coffee Brandy cretins

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