Whatever happened to the hydrogen economy? (New Scientist)

[Dogmudgeon]

I think I left it in the Prius with my jetpack ...

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20026841.900-whatever-happened-to-the-hydrogen-economy.html?page=1">Whatever happened to the hydrogen economy?

WHATEVER happened to the hydrogen economy? At the turn of the century it was the next big thing, promising a future of infinite clean energy and deliverance from climate change. Generate enough hydrogen, so the claim went, and we could use it to transform the entire energy infrastructure - it could supply power for cars, planes and boats, buildings and even portable gadgets, all without the need for dirty fossil fuels. Enthusiasts confidently predicted the breakthrough was just five to 10 years away. But today, despite ever-worsening news on global warming and with peak oil looming, the hydrogen economy seems as distant as ever.

Even in Iceland, whose grand ambitions for a renewable hydrogen economy once earned it the title Bahrain of the north, visible progress has been modest. After years of research, the country now boasts one hydrogen filling station, a handful of hydrogen cars, and one whale-watching boat with a fuel cell for auxiliary power. A trial of three hydrogen-powered buses ended in 2007, when two were scrapped and the third was consigned to a transport museum. More trials are planned, but that was before the meltdown of the country's banking system. In California, where governor Arnold Schwarzenegger promised a "hydrogen highway" with 200 hydrogen filling stations by 2010, there are just five open to the public. Ten hydrogen-fuelled buses are due to come into service in London by 2010, but a plan for 60 smaller hydrogen vehicles was recently scrapped.

Despite the setbacks, there is still enormous effort going into hydrogen research. "Fuel cells have been a roller coaster of hype and disillusionment," says Martin Green of Johnson Matthey, which makes fuel-cell components for the car industry, "but I am more confident now that the hydrogen economy is going to happen than ever before."

Real products are now inching closer to market (see map). Honda claims to be the first company with a fuel-cell car, the FCX Clarity, in large-scale production. The company will make just 200 of these cars over three years, leasing them to customers for $600 per month, but so far Honda has shifted only three. Meanwhile General Motors (GM) has released the first 100 of its Equinox fuel-cell cars in a free trial for potential customers around the world. The company claims to have spent more than $1.2 billion on hydrogen R&D, and its research boss, Larry Burns, believes a market for fuel-cell vehicles will have emerged by 2014. So could hydrogen finally be ready for take-off, or will the mirage continue to recede?

Enthusiasts claim the remaining hurdles are not so much technical as financial, and that mass production will bring costs down dramatically. But so far the fuel cell, which lies at the heart of the entire hydrogen project (see "Hydrogen basics"), has remained stubbornly expensive - and bringing the cost down means changing the technology.

...

(the font effects are mine)

This isn't exactly an easy-reading MSM article that Takes A Firm Stand and then backs it up with pudding. Several factors pro and contra are discussed -- but New Scientist does tend to be a little more scientific than the MSM.

My personal take? I think that The Big Breakthrough in energy storage won't be found in the current generation of hydrogen fuel cells, but it's still an avenue worth pursuing. What's needed is truly large-scale (and/or energy-dense) storage capability. That may take a few more years.

--p!

[Idealism]

1. Same reason why fuel cell technology isn't as widespread as it should be

Not yet cost effective, give them a few years. This technology is expensive, ask BMW. They've been trying to streamline it for years. They have a hydrogen powered 7 series, had it for a few years, but its about 30k more than the base model with a regular gasoline engine, and many less headaches around fuel availability

[gristy]

2. Is this idiot trying to be stupid? Or does it come naturally?

At the turn of the century it was the next big thing, promising a future of infinite clean energy and deliverance from climate change.

[kurt_cagle]

3. Ooops ... physics bites you in the a$$ again.

Energy Return On Investment (EROI) is a very important concept - it states that when the cost to extract energy is low compared to the amount of energy gained from the extraction, then the difference in energy can be used to perform more meaningful work (and at a large enough scale, that a given society will grow). Fossilized hydrocarbons represent the applications of large amounts of energy (kinetic energy in the form of the pressure of millions of tons of rock) compressing biomass for eons. Not surprisingly, its EROI in general is high. Nuclear energy has a higher EROI, but it also comes with significant societal costs (its EROI is reduced significantly by the waste-disposal issue), while harvesting coal, which has a somewhat lower EROI than oil, has similar environmental costs.

We as a society have adjusted to the EROI that comes from low-extraction cost oil - we have built our cities around it, our transportation grid, our food production grid. The reality is that hydrogen fuel cells are expensive because we want those fuel cells to give us all of the benefits of oil with no sacrifice on our part. Yet fuel cells either need to run on pre-processed hydrogen (which is both expensive to transport and highly flammable) or to run on water that has been highly distilled (which requires an effective catalysis mechanism - unfortunately most of those are expensive, because they require metals such as platinum that are very expensive - platinum usually runs about 2.5 to 3 times the cost of gold per ounce), and available in very limited quantities.

I think that fuel cell technology will ultimately be a part of the solution, but that we are being naive in thinking that it will be the solution. Fuel cell technology ultimately leads to a better understanding of batteries and capacitors, and hybrid vehicles that combine a mixed gas/fuel-cell system can effectively balance one another out far better than a pure hydrogen based system. Yet at the same time, those hybrids are also going to have to be seen as only a piece of the puzzle, with a rethinking of our transportation and energy grid, the way that we work and the way that we consume goods all being the other pieces of the puzzle - and all focusing less on maintaining our present lifestyle and more on adapting our society to a world where once again EROI tends towards zero.

[Dead_Parrot]

4. "A roller-coaster of hype and disillusionment"

Seller: Zeitgeist! Zeitgeist! Zeitgeist!

Man: Two choc-ices please.

Seller: I haven't got choc-ices. I only got the zeitgeist. Zeitgeist!

Man: What flavor is it?

Seller: It's an ethos, innit. It's a bloody cultural climate... it's not any bloody flavor. Zeitgeist!

Man: Do you get wafers with it?

Seller: Course you don't get bloody wafers with it. Zeitgeist!

Man: How much is it?

Seller: Ninepence.

Man: I'll have two please.

...

Seller: Schadenfreude on a stick...

[machI]

5. Is this a case of 'Correlation does not imply causation' concerning the price of oil and R&D

My memory of news reports over the last 35 to 40 years shows an increase in oil price precipitates and increase in Research and Development in alternative energy followed by a drop in oil prices.

After adjusting my aluminum foil hat, it looks like when we get serious about finding ways to produce energy outside of the OPEC controlled oil sources, the price of oil falls enough to make the R&D efforts un-economical.

The solution here is for the Government to initiate a long term, intensive, goal orientated, program to find and implement non oil based sources for our energy. Considering our present economic predicament, the stated need for a 'stimulus package', a need to re-industrialize our economy, and new Democratic President, it only makes sense for Obama to call for massive public works project for renewable energy.

For us to get out of this energy hole that we have dug ourselves into we need to:

1. Apply any stimulus funds to our long term energy needs, not frivolous consumer spending
2. Engage in real, long term Research and Development programs that are funded in such a way that they proceed irregardless of the price of oil.
3. Ensure that the United States is the center of excellence for renewable energy, and not let it slip away to another country.

We have the opportunity presented here before us; I can only hope that our new President will take it and run with it.