PV Costs Set to Plunge for 2009/10

[jpak]

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=54380

The cost of photovoltaic electricity is due to plummet in 2009, according to a new analysis by New Energy Finance. Its latest "Silicon and Wafer Price Index" shows average silicon contract prices falling by more than 30% in 2009, compared with 2008.

The report shows an average perceived spot market price of solar-grade silicon during October and November of US $332/kg. The weighted average price for polysilicon for delivery in 2009 under contracts signed in 2007 and 2008 was US $113/kg, compared with US $165/kg for silicon for delivery in 2008, a reduction of 31.5%.

At the 2008 contracted silicon price of US $165/kg, silicon contributes an estimated US $1.52/W to the current crystalline silicon module price of around US $4/watt – or just under 40%. A silicon cost reduction to US $113/kg in 2009 would therefore lower module prices for the majority of the market volume that uses contracted silicon by 12%. The silicon purchased on the spot market, though currently at much higher prices, could see even more precipitous falls.

Furthermore, with thin-film PV module manufacturing costs approaching the US $1/watt mark, crystalline silicon-based PV will come under severe competition for larger projects, resulting in margins shrinking throughout the silicon value chain, the company argues. New Energy Finance forecasts that production of thin-film photovoltaic modules will more than quadruple to 1.9 GW in 2009, and thin-film technology will be competitive with crystalline silicon photovoltaic in larger space-constrained applications, such as commercial rooftops and smaller on-grid projects.

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[lonestarnot]

1. Good. Before the farm is gone, maybe we can put it on the roof.

[phantom power]

2. The problem is, consumer buying power is also plunging.

[jpak]

3. Obama to the rescue

:fistbump:

[phantom power]

4. I hope he can rescue jobs. I'm not sure it's possible to rescue buying power.

Mostly because so much buying power from the previous decade has been essentially fake.

[NickB79]

5. The cost of solar panels is falling due to the drop in the cost of silicon

So, why has the cost of silicon dropped so precipitously? :shrug:

[jpak]

6. Massive growth in polysilicon production - billions have been invested in new polySi plants

I've posted all these announcements - some quite recently