Central Valley (CA) Fruit Crops Need Winter Chill, Won't Get It In Future - UC Davis

[hatrack]

Winter chill, a vital climatic trigger for many tree crops, is likely to decrease by more than 50 percent during this century as global climate warms, making California no longer suitable for growing many fruit and nut crops, according to a team of researchers from the University of California, Davis, and the University of Washington.

In some parts of California's agriculturally rich Central Valley, winter chill has already declined by nearly 30 percent, the researchers found. "Depending on the pace of winter chill decline, the consequences for California's fruit and nut industries could be devastating," said Minghua Zhang, a professor of environmental and resource science at UC Davis.

EDIT

Using data from climate models developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007), the researchers projected that winter chill will have declined from the 1950 baseline by as much as 60 percent by the middle of this century and by up to 80 percent by the end of the century. Their findings indicate that by the year 2000, winter chill had already declined to the point that only 4 percent of the Central Valley was still suitable for growing apples, cherries and pears - all of which have high demand for winter chill.

The researchers project that by the end of the 21st century, the Central Valley might no longer be suitable for growing walnuts, pistachios, peaches, apricots, plums and cherries. "The effects will be felt by growers of many crops, especially those who specialize in producing high-chill species and varieties," Luedeling said. "We expect almost all tree crops to be affected by these changes, with almonds and pomegranates likely to be impacted the least because they have low winter chill requirements."

EDIT

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Warming_Climate_Threatens_California_Fruit_And_Nut_Production_999.html

[kestrel91316]

1. Low-chill varieties of most stone fruits exist. There is even a true cherry

that is known as the "tropical cherry". Are these varieties commercially viable? Who knows. But they do exist.

The areas that can grow semitropical fruits and vegetables, and tropical fruits, will also expand. Farmers will have to adapt as best they can.

I'm not saying it's good. The adjustment period could turn into a famine. But it's just the way things are. If we didn't want this to happen we should have cleaned up our CO2 act decades ago, when we were first warned.

[NNadir]

4. Wow, isn't that a rosy scenario? Bananas in the Central Valley!!! Happy day!

I think I'll make like an E&E car CULTist and go out and buy a great big F150 while talking and talking and talking and talking and talking about my consumer fantasy to buy a dangerous coal and dangerous natural gas powered electric Tesla sports car.

For added effect, I think I'll get a http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=202427&mesg_id=202427">German dangerous gas pipeline company to pay me lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of Euros for my wonderful efforts to malign the world's largest, by far, source of climate change gas free primary energy.

Frankly though, the bananas we have around here are basically bananas already, bruised moldy little things.

By the way, in the happy face set I wonder if any car CULT apologists have ever paused to wonder where all the water for these happy tropical fruits in the Central Valley is going to come from? A solar powered ice melter on the moon, perhaps?

[Mojorabbit]

5. They do

It will be an expensive changeover and hopefully more new types will be bred. I have two low chill apples growing in my yard in central Florida, two peach trees, pomegranite, pecan, avocado, and citrus of all kinds plus a small macadamia nut tree. I think the apple trees were bred at the Univ of Fl.

[stopbush]

2. This is a good article,

because it frames the global warming debate as it should be framed, and that is that global warming will cause many changes in how people live, not that it will destroy human life.

Historically, the Earth has gone through many warming and cooling spells, and it will continue to do so. The question is, how does it effect human life (we really don't care how it effects the roaches, do we?), and the fact is that global warming will cause massive changes in what we can grow, what we eat, where we can live and how much human life we can support on this planet.

There's no use debating whether or not man has influenced global warming (he has), but how global warming is already impacting us and will impact us in the future.

[PufPuf23]

3. "We really don't care how it effects the roaches, do we?"

We should care about how global warming effects the web of life in general.

Adaptive management and new technology can ameliorate the likely impact of global warming but global warming is only one facet of human caused environmental problems. Climate shift and volatility decreases biodiversity and increases rates of extinction. There are problems with fresh water and declines in renewable and non-renewable natural resources.

I doubt humans will become extinct but do expect that populations will drop and the choices have more to do with how catastrophic and painful the transition period.