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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 10:15 AM
Original message
How Much Natural Gas to Replace Gasoline?
I'll paraphrase myself from yesterday: 50 years goes by in a hurry. Then what? Furthermore, the computation assumes that we don't increase our NG consumption on any other fronts, but NG electricity generation is very frequently cited as the solution to renewables intermittancy. So I wonder.

The U.S. currently consumes 390 million gallons of gasoline per day. (Source: EIA). A gallon of gasoline contains about 115,000 BTUs. (Source: EPA). The energy content of this much gasoline is equivalent to 45 trillion BTUs per day. The energy content of natural gas is about 1,000 BTUs per standard cubic foot (scf). Therefore, to replace all gasoline consumption would require 45 billion scf per day, or 16.4 trillion scf per year. Current U.S. natural gas consumption is 23 trillion scf per year (Source: EIA). Therefore, replacing all gasoline consumption with natural gas would require a total usage of 39.4 trillion scf per year, an increase in natural gas consumption of 71% over present usage.

Assuming for the sake of argument that the 2,074 trillion standard cubic feet cited in the study is accurate, that the "probable, possible and speculative reserves" eventually equate to actual reserves, and that the gas is economically recoverable, that is enough gas for 53 years of combined current natural gas consumption and gasoline consumption. If you assume that only the proven plus probable reserves are eventually recovered, the amount drops to about 1/3rd of the 2,074 trillion scf estimate, still enough to satisfy current natural gas consumption and replace all gasoline consumption for almost 20 years.

We can also calculate in terms of oil imports. Right now the U.S. imports about 13 million barrels per day of all petroleum products. A barrel of oil contains around 5.8 million BTUs, but oil only makes up 10 million of the 13 million barrel per day figure. Other imports include things like gasoline (4.8 million BTUs/bbl) and ethanol (3.2 million BTUs/bbl). Scanning the list of imports, I probably won't be too far off the mark to presume that the average BTU value of those 13 million bpd of imports is about 5.4 million BTUs/bbl. On an annual basis, this equates to 25.6 trillion scf of natural gas, which would be an increase over current natural gas usage of 111%. Going back to the 2,074 trillion scf from the study, this would be enough to displace imports of all petroleum products (again, at current usage rates and not factoring in declining U.S. oil production) for 43 years.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5615
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 10:26 AM
Response to Original message
1. Well, going by RR's conclusion
I guess that pretty much puts to rest last week's Doomer meme about how there isn't enough petroleum to allow a transition to renewables.

Or at least it *should*. In reality it will be no more convincing to the Doomers than a "Certificate of Live Birth" is to the Birthers.
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Terry in Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. You say "Doomer" like it's a bad thing
Cornucopians certainly have their share of "don't-bother-me-with-the-facts" birthitude, now, don't they!

C'mon -- 'fess up...

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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. That's funny..
Edited on Thu Jul-30-09 12:52 PM by kristopher
Do you even know what a "Cornucopian" is?

From "Rearguard of Modernity by Peter Jacques

A Review of Environmental Skepticism
A review of the skeptical literature provides over fifty books, with the overwhelming majority of them written since the 1990s with overt ties to contemporary conservatism.13 This does not mean that every single skeptic is a contemporary conservative. Gregg Easterbrook 14 and Magnus Enzenberger15 offer examples of liberal and Marxist views respectively. However, the vast majority of skeptics are contemporary conservative, and the latter exceptions do not offer any evidence of a concomitant social movement.

Consistent concerns range from the skepticism of the precautionary principle, global warming, ozone depletion, finite natural resource depletion, and biodiversity loss, to a committed faith in genetically modified organisms, the petroleum industry, and agricultural and industrial chemicals. The concentration of skeptical claims from the 1990s onwards indicates an intense burst of interest in the environmental skeptical program and is consistent with a conservative counter movement against global environmental concern (described below).16 Thus environmental skepticism is not, unlike its name might suggest, a disposition to withhold judgment until more compelling evidence is provided. Instead, environmental skepticism is a project that is skeptical of mainstream environmental claims and values but very faithful (i.e., not skeptical) to contemporary conservative values and issues, such as its faith in industrial and agricultural chemical benefits.

Skeptics often describe themselves as underdogs who are “speaking truth to power,”17 while “debunking” “junkscience” that has been constructed ignorantly or maliciously by environmentalists.18 I will note below, however, that while skeptics are positioned contrary to normal ecological understandings of the world, the idea of speaking truth to power is somewhat ironic since skeptics speak squarely from the base of the dominant modes of power, not against them.

Much of environmental skepticism’s history is well known by environmental scholars and is part of our standard textbook repertoire, starting with the maligning of Rachel Carson in the early 1960s by the chemical industry to the cornucopian work of Herman Kahn, founder of the Hudson Institute, and Julian Simon, afaliated with the Cato Institute, in the 1980s and 1990s.19 This earlier mode has aptly been referred to as “cornucopian” or “promethean,”20 because of its interest in refuting ideas about environmental scarcity. Cornucopian thought has now expanded into “environmental skepticism,” through an interest in wider environmental problems of sustainability and global ecological change, including scarcity.

One important difference between the cornucopian view and environmental skepticism is that some skeptics may not dismiss the reality of all environmental problems. Rather, some skeptics dismiss the importance of environmental problems through a filter of cost-benefit analyses that cast doubt upon the rationality of seeing environmental problems as significant. Lomborg, for example, not only disputes the science behind many global environmental problems, but he disputes the rank ordering of environmental issues as priorities, which is discussed in more detail below. Nonetheless, this is a different challenge compared to the simpler cornucopian claim of quasi-inanite ecological abundance. The comparative cost-benefit lens articulates an additional level of reasoning why, in their judgment, environmental problems are generally not worth public concern and therefore action. Nonetheless, a deaning element to both cornucopian thought and environmental skepticism is the forceful rejection that environmental problems threaten the sustainability of modern human societies. This rejection is usually accompanied by the allegation that environmental knowledge has been politicized and therefore has become unreliable. So, the new incorporates the old but casts a wider net, and the new name is not unproblematic but seems relatively apropos.

Speciac Skeptical Propositions
Given the wide understanding of the cornucopian literature, I will limit this review to a handful of important skeptics. I give Lomborg special attention later in the paper.

One of the more widely known skeptics is Reason21 science correspondent, Ronald Bailey. Bailey has written and edited several volumes on the state of the world, all with the support of contemporary conservative institutions such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute.22 He believes that environmentalism is propped up on false science popularized by Paul Ehrlich, Lester Brown, and Rachel Carson in combination with Marxist sympathies. He sees environmentalists politicizing science through “an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary” in order to control others through fear.23

- The Rearguard of Modernity


There are 5 relevant facts to consider:
1) the basic belief structure of "cornucopians" is closely tied to the belief structure of contemporary conservatives,
2) the belief that coal and nuclear are the best sources of energy is a fundamental part of contemporary conservative thought,
3) virtually ALL of the "doomers" on DU EE are supporters of nuclear energy
4) the belief that renewable energy is our best source of energy is a fundamental part of liberal thought,
5) virtually ALL of those you refer to as "cornucopians" on DU EE are supporters of renewable energy.

Since there is an obvious disconnect between your accusations and the reality of the terms I'd say that the most probable conclusion to be derived from this set of data is that the nuclear supporters are adopting and deploying arguments disguised as being liberal when their actual intent is to further the conservative agenda while thwarting the liberal agenda.
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Terry in Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Doomer vs. Cornucopian vs. ...whatever
Edited on Thu Jul-30-09 04:12 PM by Terry in Austin
Virtually ALL of these labels are BS. Virtually all of us knew that, anyway. Trying to get scientific about classifying belief systems is kind of a monastic exercise, at best. That said, sometimes BS can be useful if you keep in mind that ultimately, it's still BS.

I think the interesting point -- about which much discussion is avoided on EE -- is that there are two major themes here in chronic conflict that, IMO, just boil down to one's beliefs: some believe that we can sustain our present level of material comfort by means of well-chosen technological solutions, and some believe otherwise.

If you are someone who does in fact believe otherwise, you're likely to earn the label "doomer." For my own part, sure, I'll answer to that label -- assuming we understand that any usefulness these labels might have comes with keeping a certain amount of good humor about them. I don't consider it an accusation at all.

All I ask is that we don't automatically equate "doom" with "gloom" -- it all depends on how you feel about what it is that's doomed, after all (that's a joke, son!).

As for the other camp, I've often heard the label "cornucopian" (sometimes, "techno-cornucopian") applied to the technology-will-sustain-us believers. I understand that there are serious divisions within it along nuclear-vs.-renewable lines, and I can sympathize. But from over here, these are variants of the technology narrative. (FWIW, I'm a technology professional and renewables advocate, but with seriously modest expectations).

Either way, whatever label you're comfortable with, I'm good with that. I'll try to remember that just because you have some beliefs that I don't, it doesn't make you some kind of idiot. Might be a good thing to do all around, in fact.

Different starting premises can lead to opposite, though equally sound, conclusions. It seems to me that a lot of the conflict in the discussions here are basically a matter of people talking past each other because they haven't established any shared premises on which to build a productive discussion.

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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-31-09 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I see...
Edited on Fri Jul-31-09 01:23 PM by kristopher
when you are called on misapplying the label it suddenly becomes BS and the information showing your misuse becomes "a monastic exercise, at best" (whatever the hell that is).

This is a politically oriented forum, and of all the practical issues in the political realm, energy and environment are probably two of the most clear-cut in terms of differences in beliefs between liberals and conservatives.

You say that "Different starting premises can lead to opposite, though equally sound, conclusions".

That is false. It can lead to opposite conclusions, true; but there is little reason to think those conclusions are "equally sound". What is more likely when dealing with readily quantifiable issues such as energy and the externalities of energy production, is that someone is playing games with the "starting premises" in order to achieve a preselected outcome in their analysis.

You made a specific assertion that is based on such easily quantifiable variables. You said that renewable energy CAN'T sustain our culture's lifestyle. That is demonstrably false. Not only can it sustain our lifestyle, but in making it a reality the lessons learned in the areas of efficiency and renewable technologies can enable the rest of the world to join us.

I do not promote consumerism; in its place I expect to see the growth of an outlook based on sustainable development that will raise the standard of living around the world.

I do promote a decrease in global population; and I believe the best evidence CLEARLY shows that we will achieve this most rapidly by raising the standard of living around the world.

Whether intended or not, the "doomer" perspective is one that basically encourages the status quo. It is a perspective that makes the argument that things are so bad there is no sense in trying to make them better; we might as well just grab some popcorn and observe the inevitable collapse of modern culture.

Observe, not participate.

Inevitable.


Those are concepts that lead to inaction and preservation of the status quo.

Who benefits from the status quo?

The conservative "drill baby drill" set, that's who.

They WANT people who are dissatisfied with the status quo to sit on the sidelines and be apathetic.

I believe "doomerism" as it is preached on this forum has nothing to do with perspectives on the belief that "technology will sustain us" and everything to do with do I TRY or do I GIVE UP?

If I have identified blind consumption and overpopulation as the most serious challenges to humans living a dignified life, and if I am NOT willing to just give up and lay down waiting to die, then my available course of action is to study until I understand the nature of these problems and the options available to deal with them. And then I must work to implement the solutions that have presented themselves.

That is entirely different than embracing the perspective on technology that the right wingers hold. THAT perspective is linked inextricably to the "bigger is better" outlook associated with support for deployment of nuclear energy or the selfish pursuit of non sustainable alternatives like ethanol from farmed feed stocks.

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Terry in Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-31-09 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Spoken like a true whatever-ian!
C'mon -- I copped to "doomer." What are you going to answer to?

Until then, "cornucopian" will do fine. Just a short handle for the narrative "All we need in order to maintain our modern way of life are some well-selected technological solutions." If there's a handle for it that you feel is more correct, let me know.

> sustainable development that will raise the standard of living around the world.
Nice, if you can find enough BTU's to drive it. Good luck with that.

> will achieve this most rapidly by raising the standard of living around the world.
Developmentalism still has such an appeal, doesn't it. Trouble is, to raise the global SOL to current American levels, it would require the resources of several Earths.

> ...renewable energy CAN'T sustain our culture's lifestyle. That is demonstrably false. Not only can it sustain our lifestyle...
Cool -- I'd like to see that. Looks like you've still got it to demonstrate.

Here's the thing: what's doomed is this "lifestyle" business. Tales about keeping business as usual by means of better gadgets and cool fuels are just wasting what limited time we have to reorganize our living arrangements and adapt to much lower energy levels. Yes, we need every alt.joule we can manage, but don't foster any illusions that 2030 is going to be just as comfy as 2007, only greener.

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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-31-09 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. You mean we have a BRAZILLION years for the renewable scam to dump dangerous fossil
fuel waste in an unrestricted fashion in earth's atmosphere with endless cheering from scientifically illiterate anti-nukes?

Who do you think you are?

Gerhard Schroeder?

I know that in fundie land they don't give a fuck about dangerous fossil fuel waste, even though there are ZERO anti-nuke fundies who know HOW or WHERE to dump dangerous fossil fuel waste for eternity, but for people who are actually environmentalists, it is very clear that the amount of dangerous fossil fuel waste dumped last year by dangerous natural gas burning was um,http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh3co2.xls
">Six Billion Metric Tons

I have long NOTED that there is NOT ONE "renewables will save us" anti-nuke fundie who is anything but an apologist for the dangerous fossil fuel industry.

Zero. Zilch. None.

QED.

Have a nice day, gas Kiddie. You couldn't fucking care less:



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hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 02:19 PM
Response to Original message
4. Natural gas to DME or synthetic gasoline or diesel seems one possible avenue.
The Chinese are exploring all these possibilities in a very big way.

http://www.aboutdme.org

I think it's inevitable that natural gas prices will become directly linked to motor fuel prices. This will have unpleasant consequences in the electric power industry.


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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. I stand by my prediction...
we're going to live to regret leaning on NG for electricity.

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