Norwegian oil output to fall more than expected

[phantom power]

OSLO — Norway says its offshore oil production will fall 10 percent more through 2013 than predicted a year ago, but will be partly offset by an increase in natural gas exports.

A Norwegian Petroleum Directorate report said Tuesday that oil production is expected to average 1.91 million barrels per day this year, and dwindle to 1.62 million barrels per day in 2013, a 10 percent larger decline than projected last year.

Production was about 2.2 million barrels per day at the end of 2008, after falling from a peak average of 3.1 million barrels per day in 2000.

...

“Much of our oil and gas production comes from discoveries made in the first 20 years, during the period between 1969 and 1989. Resource growth from discoveries made in the last decade is low,” the directorate said.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/6596353.html

[happyslug]

1. This is NOT good

While Norway is only the 11th largest oil producer, it also the fourth largest exporter of oil:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm

The # 1 Importer is also the #3 producer of oil and the #1 user of oil (The United States)
The # 2 Importer is Japan, It is the # 3 user of oil.
The # 3 Importer is China, and it is the # 2 user of oil and the #5 Producer
The # 4 USER of oil is Russia, but it is the #2 producer AND #2 exporter of oil.
The # 4 Importer of oil is Germany, but only the #6 user of oil (Little domestic production)
The # 4 EXPORTER of Oil is Norway, which is not even in the top ten of Consumers of oil while it is only #11 in production.
The # 5 Importer of oil is South Korea, but it is only the # 9 Consumer of oil
The # 6 PRODUCER of oil is Mexico, but it is also the # 11 Consumer and the # 13 exporter.
The # 6 Importer is oil is India, but it is the # 5 user of oil (Declining Domestic production).
The # 7 Importer is France, but is only the # 12 user of oil
The # 8 Consumer of oil is Canada, but it is the # 7 Producer and the #15 exporter (Mostly to the US)
The # 8 importer is Spain, which is not even in the top 15 of consumers or producers of oil
The # 8 PRODUCER of oil is United Arab Emirates which is also the # 3 Exporter but not on the top ten list of consumers of oil
The #9 importer is Italy, which is only #15 consumer of oil
The #10 importer is Taiwan, again with little production but like Spain not even in the top 15 of Consumers and producers.
The # 10 Consumer of oil is Saudi Arabia, which is the # 1 producers and #1 EXPORTER of oil.

If you look at the above you quickly see how important this report is. While they are larger producers of oil, when it comes to exports it

Of the top ten oil consumers, only Russia and Saudi Arabia are exporters of oil. In addition to Russia and Saudi Arabia only United Arab Emirates beat out Norway in exports. Thus Norway's drop in production is more important then it appears on the surface when it comes to the price of oil on the International Market.

[GliderGuider]

3. Add in the Export Land Model

and oil importing nations are in a big bucket of risk.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

[hatrack]

2. It's almost as if depletion were proceeding . . . . Faster Than Expected!!

:eyes: